As world leaders and negotiators gather in Belém for COP30, climate adaptation is taking centre stage. Climate impacts are no longer a distant threat: they are already reshaping communities, economies and ecosystems, hitting those least able to adapt the hardest. The COP30 Presidency has urged countries to make this the “COP of adaptation”, signaling the need to move beyond pledges and deliver the policies and investments needed to protect the people and communities already on the frontlines.
Among all climate risks, droughts stand out as a critical test of these efforts. Droughts are not only one of the most widespread and damaging climate hazards – they also fuel other extreme events like wildfires, heatwaves and flash floods. Droughts undermine water and food security across large swathes of land, disrupt energy production and push vulnerable communities into poverty and displacement. As negotiators come together to turn ambition into action, droughts offer a concrete measure of our collective progress on adaptation, serving as a test of the effectiveness of existing policies, investments and partnerships in addressing climate risks. The question is whether COP30 will deliver on its promises and advance the solutions needed to tackle these escalating challenges.
Droughts present a growing and costly risk
Droughts are no longer confined to traditionally arid regions: they increasingly affect areas once considered humid or temperate, posing growing challenges across all continents. The OECD Global Drought Outlook reveals the extent of the issue: the global area affected by drought has doubled since 1900, and around 40% of the planet’s land surface has experienced more frequent and intense dry spells in recent decades.
Not surprisingly, climate change is driving much of this shift. Warmer temperatures disrupt rainfall patterns, accelerate evaporation and deplete the water stored in soils, snowpacks and glaciers, reducing freshwater availability across large areas. The link between climate change and growing drought extremes is increasingly clear: for example, climate change made the 2022 drought in Europe up to 20 times more likely and increased the probability of the ongoing drought in North America by more than 40%. Deforestation, over-abstraction of groundwater and soil sealing also contribute to this trend by weakening the ecosystems that help buffer against water stress. Together, all these pressures make droughts start earlier, last longer and hit harder.
The consequences of droughts are severe. Droughts threaten food security and livelihoods, especially in regions that depend on agriculture. Crop yields can drop by up to 22% during the driest years, while prolonged droughts can reduce soy and corn harvests by 10%. But the impacts go well beyond farms – droughts can disrupt supply chains, slow down manufacturing and constrain energy production. OECD analysis in the Global Drought Outlook shows that the global economic costs of droughts are growing by 3–7.5% every year, and that an average drought today can cause six times more damage than it did at the start of the century. Without decisive action, global losses from droughts could more than double within the next decade.
Strengthening resilience under a changing climate
Against this backdrop, COP30 offers an opportunity to turn awareness into action. Governments increasingly recognise the threat drought poses to their economies and communities, yet too often policy responses remain reactive rather than focused on adaptation. To truly adapt, resilience must be embedded into how we manage water, land, infrastructure and ecosystems, investing more in long-term planning instead of waiting for the next crisis to strike.
And it pays off to do so: besides saving lives, every dollar invested in drought resilience can yield up to ten dollars in economic returns.
What can governments do to unlock this potential?
Building resilience requires acting on several fronts to manage water, land and ecosystems more effectively:
1. Adapt water demand and supply to a changing climate: Smarter allocation systems, better metering and fairer pricing can make water use more efficient while allowing resources to replenish. Expanding water storage capacity, including by protecting wetlands and forests that act as natural reservoirs, also helps secure reliable supplies for dry periods.
2. Restore ecosystems as natural buffers: Healthy forests, soils and wetlands store water, slow erosion and sustain biodiversity. In cities, green infrastructure like parks and green roofs help reduce drought while also attenuating heat stress. In California, for example, urban de-sealing efforts have restored up to 780 million m3 of water annually – the equivalent of the annual water consumption of over 14 million people.
3. Transform agricultural systems: Farmers can’t halt climate change, but they can adapt to it. Efficient irrigation, drought-tolerant crops, soil moisture conservation and flexible planting calendars all mitigate water stress and help maintain productivity even during dry years. Financial tools such as drought insurance and targeted support for smallholders can help accelerate the adoption of resilient practices.
Ultimately, drought resilience depends on how governments work together across borders, ministries and sectors. No single institution can address this risk alone.
COP30 offers a pivotal opportunity to turn rising concern about drought into concrete, measurable and co-ordinated action across countries. As Parties negotiate the next steps of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), they can move beyond broad references to “water-related hazards” and agree on clear, time-bound targets to reduce drought risk – from lowering the number of people exposed to severe water scarcity, to expanding drought early-warning systems and securing climate-resilient water and food systems. Embedding such drought-specific targets in the GGA and backing them with finance, data and capacity support, would provide countries with a strong mandate to raise national ambition, prioritise adaptation over crisis response and protect the millions of livelihoods that depend on increasingly fragile water resources. If COP30 can deliver that step change, the GGA will become far more than an abstract global aspiration and begin to serve as a practical roadmap for managing drought risk on the ground.
