COP30 comes at a pivotal moment for the international climate process – marking a shift from negotiating commitments to delivering on existing climate promises. Strengthening multilateralism, connecting climate action to people’s daily lives and accelerating implementation have been identified as priorities by the incoming Brazilian Presidency for COP30. The expectation is for progress to be driven through discussions between countries, leveraging efforts by non-state actors through the Action Agenda and the global mutirão  - a concept rooted in Indigenous wisdom that captures the spirit of people coming together to address a shared challenge. 

Countries are expected to agree on a package of outcomes on adaptation during this year’s negotiations - including a set of indicators to assess progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Established by the Paris Agreement, the GGA reflects the commitment of countries to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change. Over the past two years, a group of technical experts have been working to identify GGA indicators to track progress across specific sectors and stages of the adaptation policy cycle. A list of 100 potential indicators put forward in September provides the basis for negotiations between countries at COP30. Well-designed GGA indicators can raise ambition and scale-up adaptation efforts by signalling priorities and catalysing partnerships. By doing so, they can drive more co-ordinated approaches to data collection and effective delivery of adaptation action

Measuring progress towards the GGA requires an ambitious yet operational set of indicators that builds on national reporting systems and enhances the coherence of global reporting processes. Earlier this year, the OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) looked at how countries could do just that. The analysis highlights the need for an iterative approach  - one that facilitates adjustments to the indicator set over time as data and reporting capacities evolve. A recent CCXG paper highlights the importance of designing GGA indicators that address current data and knowledge gaps while strengthening countries’ data and statistical capacities. It also stresses the need to build on existing reporting under the UNFCCC, particularly on enabling factors for implementation, including means of implementation, to inform global assessments of progress on adaptation.

In 2025, countries are due to put forward a new round of climate plans - or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - under the Paris Agreement. While NDCs are not subject to multilateral negotiations, as they are determined domestically, they will nonetheless take up a substantial amount of attention in Belém. The UNFCCC synthesis report covering 64 new NDCs submitted by the end of September indicates that while progress is being made, accelerated efforts are needed to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5^oC and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. There are ongoing discussions between countries on whether COP30 responds to the new NDCs and if so, how it might help to close the gap in climate ambition and implementation, and take forward the outcomes of the first global stocktake.

The good news is that today we have evidence that economics is on the side of climate action. Recent OECD-UNDP analysis shows that enhanced NDCs could boost global GDP by up to 3% by 2050 and up to 13% by 2100 largely by reducing the substantial cost of climate-related damages. Integrated climate and development policies could also lift an additional 175 million people out of extreme poverty by 2050, while also improving public health through better air quality, and strengthening energy security and access. But delivering these benefits requires NDCs that are not only ambitious but also implementable and investable. The latest evidence shows that effective NDC delivery depends on political ownership across government, alignment with national and local development priorities, putting affected stakeholders at the centre, and building robust partnership with the private sector. Crucially, it also requires mobilising and optimising public finance, alongside strengthened international support, to turn ambition into bankable investment pipelines. This is a prerequisite for scaling the finance needed to deliver climate and development outcomes.

Following the adoption of the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance at COP29, the task is now to turn commitment into delivery. The NCQG calls for scaling up finance for developing countries to at least USD 1.3 trillion by 2035, including mobilising at least USD 300 billion per year by 2035. To make the NCQG meaningful in practice, countries will need a shared understanding of what it covers. New CCXG analysis explores key questions in this regard,  from clarity on which types of finance, to actors and instruments that fall within the scope, and how progress will be tracked. Strengthening data availability, comparability and transparency will also ensure credible monitoring and effective implementation.

Delivering finance at this scale will be challenging for both providers and recipients. This is where the Baku to Belém Roadmap comes in: it aims to turn collective ambition into concrete financial support. The Roadmap is expected to provide practical guidance on unlocking finance at scale, from strengthening concessional finance and advancing reforms of multilateral development banks, to supporting domestic capacity-building and creating stronger platforms for country-led co-ordination and private finance mobilisation.

While finance will not be a formal focus of the negotiations in Belém, the Roadmap will inform wider discussions at COP30, including in the context of implementing the next generation of NDCs. Leading up to COP30 and beyond, maintaining momentum on the NCQG process can act to turn collective ambition into practical progress on financing climate action.

COP30 offers a moment to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement and progress to date, and chart the road ahead to strengthen resilience and advance adaptation, mobilise climate finance and deliver enhanced NDCs to keep the Agreement’s goals within reach.

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In the lead-up and during COP30, the OECD COP30 Virtual Pavilion will discuss a variety of these topics, including:

• Making adaptation indicators work: From national realities to global assessments of progress, 3 November 2025
• Taking forward the NCQG: Scope and information needs for the USD 300 billion goal and USD 1.3 trillion scale up call, 4 November 2025
• Enhanced NDCs: Turning climate ambition into opportunities for industry decarbonisation, 6 November 2025

All sessions are live and include an interactive Q&A component and will be available in replay mode following the event.

We will also be on the ground at COP30 in Brazil, actively organising and participating in a number of in-person events, such as:

• From Pledges to Projects: Bridging the NDC-Investment Gap in Asia, 13 November
• Unlocking NDCs for Growth and Development: From Data to Design and Delivery, 14 November