Real mainland GDP growth of 4.2% is projected for both 2021 and 2022, as the economy recovers to its pre-pandemic path. In 2023 output growth will be 1.7%, in line with potential. Consumption growth will remain strong as households lower their saving ratio. Employment already exceeds the pre-pandemic level and unemployment will fall further. Headline consumer price inflation should ease as electricity price increases and supply bottlenecks unwind, then rise gradually, along with wage growth, as spare capacity is absorbed. However, the current price pressures may spark an earlier acceleration in overall wage and price growth.
The pandemic recovery offers an opportunity to reinvigorate business dynamism and ensure that education delivers on skills. This will help maintain good living standards and support comprehensive public services.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities