Mainland GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.7% in 2023 but rebound to 1.3% in 2024. Broad-based increases in prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. Even though headline inflation will ease as energy prices stabilise, helping domestic demand to recover, underlying price pressures will persist. The unemployment rate will increase on the back of a softening economy, but the labour market will remain tight, putting pressure on wages.
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Norway has been more successful than many countries in limiting the spread and impact of COVID‑19. The country has maintained good outcomes on many economic and social indicators. GDP per capita remains among the highest in the OECD. However, there are challenges in sustaining good outcomes amid post‑pandemic economic adjustment, continued population aging and the urgency of tackling climate change. Labour force participation needs to increase to ensure the high levels of employment that are key to Norway’s socio‑economic model. Higher productivity growth is essential for businesses to remain competitive. Meanwhile, economic activity must continue to adjust to achieve a faster decline in greenhouse‑gas emissions.
The pandemic recovery offers an opportunity to reinvigorate business dynamism and ensure that education delivers on skills. This will help maintain good living standards and support comprehensive public services.
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