Italy Economic Snapshot

Upcoming: Economic Forecast Update, 7 June 2023 at 9:00 (CEST)

Economic Outlook Note - Italy

Real GDP growth is projected at 3.7% in 2022, slowing to 0.2% in 2023, before picking up moderately to 1% in 2024. High energy prices will act as a brake on production in energy-intensive industries, while falling real incomes due to high inflation, increasing interest rates and subdued export market growth will moderate demand growth. Unemployment will rise and labour market participation decline, with employment shrinking in 2023.

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Key Resources

Economic Survey of Italy (September 2021)

Italy’s economy is recovering steadily from the COVID crisis, thanks to the vaccination campaign and generous fiscal support to households and firms. Risks to the outlook are large, including virus variants and the path of global interest rates. To raise growth and employment above pre-pandemic levels, the composition of public spending and taxes must improve. Together with implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, which includes critical structural reforms and investments, this can help support a faster transition towards a greener, more digitised economy. Realising this will require a demanding set of legislative and administrative reforms. Improving civil justice, tax administration and public investment will be essential to raise income growth.

Executive summary

Presentation

Reform Priorities (April 2021)

Going for Growth 2021 - Italy

Many of Italy's structural challenges - the significant divides across regions, age, gender and productivity, as well as high levels of public debt - have been compounded by the COVID-19 crisis. The key priority for the recovery is to enhance the public administration's effectiveness. This should include, in particular, public investment governance and improved co-ordination and implementation across different levels of government.