Italy Economic Snapshot

Economic Forecast Summary (June 2023)

June 2023

Economic Outlook Note - Italy

GDP growth is projected to decline from 3.8% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023 and 1% in 2024. High inflation is eroding real incomes given subdued wage growth, financial conditions are tightening, and exceptional fiscal support related to the energy crisis is gradually being withdrawn, weighing on private consumption and investment. Domestic risks are broadly balanced. Accumulated household savings remain large, which may support a more rapid rebound of domestic demand than currently expected.


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Boosting evidence-based policy making for economic development in Italy (June 2023)

In recent years, the Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy has made important efforts to promote a stronger culture of evaluation and monitoring. The recent establishment of a new Analytical Unit (Centro Studi) responsible for conducting ex-ante, in-itinere and ex-post policy evaluations marks an important step towards enhancing the Ministry’s capacity to produce and use impact evaluations. This report presents the result of work aimed at supporting the development of the Centro Studi and the use of evidence in the Ministry, by providing guidance, practices and methodologies to strengthen the Centro Studi’s governance, its data and evaluation capacity, and its ability to inform the design of the Ministry’s economic policies (e.g. on industrial policies, innovation, entrepreneurship and productivity). This project was funded by the European Union via the Technical Support Instrument and carried out by the OECD, in co-operation with the Directorate General for Structural Reform Support of the European Commission and the Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy.

This work is a joint effort of the OECD Economics Department, the Public Governance Directorate and the Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation.

Economic Survey of Italy (September 2021)

Italy’s economy is recovering steadily from the COVID crisis, thanks to the vaccination campaign and generous fiscal support to households and firms. Risks to the outlook are large, including virus variants and the path of global interest rates. To raise growth and employment above pre-pandemic levels, the composition of public spending and taxes must improve. Together with implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, which includes critical structural reforms and investments, this can help support a faster transition towards a greener, more digitised economy. Realising this will require a demanding set of legislative and administrative reforms. Improving civil justice, tax administration and public investment will be essential to raise income growth.

Executive summary


Reform Priorities (April 2021)

Going for Growth 2021 - Italy

Many of Italy's structural challenges - the significant divides across regions, age, gender and productivity, as well as high levels of public debt - have been compounded by the COVID-19 crisis. The key priority for the recovery is to enhance the public administration's effectiveness. This should include, in particular, public investment governance and improved co-ordination and implementation across different levels of government.

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