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OECD EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK 2025
Population ageing will cause significant labour shortages and fiscal pressures
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Job markets remain resilient, with labour force participation reaching record highs in many OECD countries. However, declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy will have a significant impact on economic growth and employment.
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Population ageing is shaping the future of labour markets
Declining fertility and increasing life expectancy imply that the OECD population is becoming older. With the progressive exit of the large baby boomer generation from the labour force, the working-age population in OECD countries (traditionally defined as between 20 to 64 years old) is declining. Also, the old-age dependency ratio – defined as the ratio of individuals aged 65 years and above to the working-age population – has increased dramatically from 19% in 1980 to 31% in 2023 and is projected to rise further to 52% by 2060 on average in the OECD.
Supporting older workers in maintaining and adapting their skills is crucial, and involves shifting to a career model where learning at work takes place throughout life. Stronger action to expand access to career guidance and lifelong learning should be considered, especially for mid-career and older workers.
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