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OECD
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2026
Global economic outlook weakens amid energy shock and rising inflationary pressures
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The evolving conflict in the Middle East has become the dominant force shaping global economic prospects, prompting an energy shock that is driving inflationary pressures and is projected to have adverse impacts on growth.
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2026 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting
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Global growth will weaken in a time-limited disruption scenario
The conflict in the Middle East has become the dominant force shaping the global economic outlook. In light of the uncertainty surrounding its duration and extent, the Economic Outlook provides two scenarios for the global economy. In a time-limited disruption scenario, the sizeable disruptions are assumed to remain relatively short-lived, while in a prolonged disruption scenario, broader disruptions last well into 2027, much longer-lasting negative consequences.
In the time-limited scenario, growth is set to slow modestly in North America and Europe before a tentative recovery, with the United States easing to 2.0% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, Canada dipping to 1.2% before rebounding to 1.7%, Mexico strengthening to 1.9% by 2027, the United Kingdom from 0.9% to 1.1%, while China moderates steadily to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.
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