The shift in global goods production towards Asia is well documented. But global
consumer demand has so far been concentrated in the rich economies of the OECD. Will that also
shift towards Asia as these countries get richer? This paper defines a global middle class as all
those living in households with daily per capita incomes of between USD10 and USD100 in PPP
terms. By combining household survey data with growth projections for 145 countries, it shows
that Asia accounts for less than one-quarter of today’s middle class. By 2020, that share could
double. More than half the world’s middle class could be in Asia and Asian consumers could
account for over 40 per cent of global middle class consumption. This is because a large mass of
Asian households have incomes today that position them just below the global middle class
threshold and so increasingly large numbers of Asians are expected to become middle class in the
next ten years. The paper explores how this can help sustain global growth in the medium term,
driven by product differentiation, branding and marketing in the new growth markets of Asia.
