The Climate Action Monitor 2026

Executive summary

Climate ambition has strengthened, while implementation remains a key challenge

In 2026, attention is increasingly turning to implementation. As countries approach the 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) milestone, the challenge is to deliver on existing commitments while continuing to strengthen ambition where necessary. Although estimated projections of end-of-century global warming have fallen from around 4°C to an estimated 2.3-2.5°C, many countries are not on track to meet the targets they have already adopted.

Emissions trends continue to differ markedly across countries and regions. Emissions in OECD member countries peaked in 2007 and have declined by around 11% since 2015, albeit unevenly across countries. Over the same period, emissions in OECD partner countries, including major emerging economies such as China and India, rose by 12%, reflecting different development pathways, energy systems and rapidly growing energy demand. As a result, global emissions continue to rise despite sustained reductions in several countries.

Progress towards 2030 targets varies across countries. Emissions in OECD countries are collectively around 4% above the emissions pathway consistent with their commitments, compared with around 10% for OECD partner countries. Without a marked acceleration in implementation, many countries risk missing national targets that are now only a few years away.

Near-term targets and long-term national goals are not yet fully aligned. The latest 2035 NDCs have not sufficiently narrowed the gap with emissions pathways consistent with net-zero commitments. Across OECD members and partners, this gap widened by around 10% by 2035. At the same time, many net-zero targets, covering around 80% of global emissions, still lack legal backing, raising questions about their implementation and durability. The result is a growing disconnect between long-term objectives and the policies and targets intended to deliver them.

Climate impacts are intensifying, exposing growing vulnerabilities

Climate impacts are no longer a distant risk: their economic and social costs are already rising. Across OECD members and partner countries, average annual economic losses from extreme weather events increased from USD 101 billion in 1994-98 to USD 249 billion in 2021-25.

Exposure to climate-related hazards is increasing across countries, but risks vary considerably across and within countries. Climate risk depends not only on the evolution of hazards such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and wildfires, but also on exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. National averages often mask important local vulnerabilities and differences in preparedness.

Extreme heat is becoming a defining climate risk. Population exposure to heat stress, hot days and tropical nights has increased markedly across regions. Events once considered exceptional are projected to become increasingly common with growing implications for health, productivity and infrastructure. Although heat-related mortality remains difficult to measure and is likely underreported, available estimates indicate more than 300 000 heatwave-related fatalities between 2000 and 2026, representing almost 20% of reported disaster-related deaths over the period.

Drought risks are deepening across regions, with cascading impacts across water, food and energy systems, as well as trade, supply chains and broader economic activity. OECD indicators show widespread declines in cropland soil moisture, while projections point to increasing long-term drought severity over the course of this century. These trends threaten agricultural production, ecosystems, water availability and rural livelihoods.

Rising hazards are exposing the limits of existing adaptation. As extreme heat, drought and other climate-related hazards intensify, pressure is growing on housing, workplaces, health systems and urban infrastructure. Strengthening adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability will be essential to contain rising human, economic and environmental costs.

Climate policy is advancing, but implementation remains uneven

Policy frameworks matter: stronger and more comprehensive policies are associated with better emissions outcomes. National climate policies have continued to advance globally in 2025, supported by updated climate targets and carbon pricing, However, momentum has slowed compared with the previous decade, while policy removals have increased. The emerging picture is one of continued progress but slowing momentum and growing uncertainty over implementation.

Developments in the Asia-Pacific region will play an important role in global emissions trends. While Europe remains at the forefront of climate policy, future emissions outcomes will depend heavily on developments in the Asia-Pacific region given its scale, growing energy demand and expanding role in clean energy deployment and investment.

Power-sector decarbonisation remains an important component of climate mitigation efforts. Renewable energy policies, carbon pricing and coal phase-out commitments have expanded considerably. Faster progress in emerging economies could unlock emissions reductions well beyond the electricity sector by enabling the electrification of transport, buildings and industry.

Policy coverage remains less developed in agriculture, land us and waste. Electricity, industry, buildings and transport have benefited from expanding policy support. However, policy progress in agriculture, forestry, other land use and waste has been more limited, leaving these sectors as important policy gaps and significant sources of untapped mitigation opportunities.

Translating climate objectives into emission target outcomes remains a central implementation challenge. Closing the gap between climate goals and real-world outcomes will require faster emissions reductions, stronger adaptation and more consistent policy implementation, while raising ambition where current commitments remain insufficient.