The energy transition and the rise in trade restrictions driven by geo-fragmentation present significant risks to critical mineral markets. This paper examines a subset of essential transition-critical minerals—aluminium, cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel—to assess how these markets may be impacted by shifting global economic dynamics. Through a three-fold analysis, the study explores the key drivers of commodity price formation, the medium-term effects of trade interventions on price expectations, and the short-term volatility triggered by trade announcements. The findings and discussion focus on the risks to the energy transition and financial markets.
The changing dynamics in global metal markets
How the energy transition and geo-fragmentation may disrupt commodity prices
