Preparing for Demographic Change in Nord‑Vest, Romania

Report

16 September 2025

2. Setting the scene: Portrait of Nord‑Vest in its national and European context

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Abstract

This chapter provides an overview of the demographic and socio-economic trends and multi-level governance structure in Nord-Vest, Romania. In the last 10 years, the region of 2.5 million inhabitants has decreased in population by 1.8% – a trend that is forecast to continue, albeit at a slower pace than the Romanian average. Despite population decline, outmigration is slowing as urban centres of Cluj-Napoca and Oradea flourish. The region is gradually converging towards the EU average, supported by growth in high-skilled sectors of the local economy. The national government in Romania has the main competencies for key policy areas linked to demographic change and has adopted several policies to both shape demographic trends and adapt to their impacts. While regional, county and local authorities’ competencies are more limited, they have an essential role in investment – in particular through EU funds – which they will need to direct effectively to support an ageing population and improve attractiveness for youth.

Introduction

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The Nord-Vest is one of Romania’s eight development regions, strategically positioned in the northwest of the country. It shares international borders with Hungary to the west and Ukraine to the north, serving as a gateway for trade across the region. The region is composed of six counties (Bihor, Bistrița-Năsăud, Cluj, Maramureș, Satu Mare and Sălaj) and 446 territorial administrative units, including 15 cities (municipii), 28 towns (orașe) and 403 rural communes (comună). It is characterised by a predominantly rural landscape, which is home to around half of the region’s population. In recent years, Nord-Vest has been converging towards the EU average in terms of GDP per capita, aided by significant investment supported by EU and national funds.

By 2050, the population of Nord-Vest (2.5 million inhabitants) is projected to shrink by 14%, with 24% fewer working‑age residents (15-64 years old) and 41% fewer young residents (15-49). It will also age, with a 23% increase in elderly residents (65+). A smaller and older demographic profile will have a significant impact on the region. Economic growth risks being constrained from a smaller working‑age population. Public services in shrinking rural communes – especially primary schools – may become less viable as student numbers decrease. Healthcare service will face pressure as an older population requires additional and more complex procedures. Public finances will also face pressures from increase pension liabilities and higher healthcare spending.

Avoiding the worst impacts of demographic change requires proactively adapting to demographic change. To ensure the Nord-Vest region remains an attractive place for youth requires re-scaling and re‑shaping governance structures, policies, services and investment priorities. Without adaptation, Nord‑Vest will risk having infrastructure and services that not aligned with future population needs, which will increase their cost and reduce potential benefits. Ultimately, this could lower the attractiveness of the region for youth.

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the key trends, challenges and policy responses required to adapt to demographic change. It provides a roadmap for policymakers, practitioners and stakeholders in Nord-Vest, and beyond, to navigate demographic changes in a way that fosters resilience and long-term prosperity (Box 2.1). The study is structured into four main chapters. Chapter 2 outlines the socio-economic and demographic profile of the region, and the institutional arrangements and overarching policy framework relating to demographic change in Romania. Chapter 3 explores land use and spatial planning issues, focusing on the spatial planning framework, land use, housing and settlement patterns. Chapter 4 focuses on subnational government finances, infrastructure investment and multi-level governance. Chapter 5 provides an assessment of public service delivery, focusing on balancing quality, accessibility and financial sustainability in the face of shifting demographic pressure.

Box 2.1. Helping regions adapt to demographic change

Copy link to Box 2.1. Helping regions adapt to demographic change

By 2050, two-thirds of EU regions are projected to have less population than in 2019, while nearly 9 of 10 regions are projected to have a higher median age. Population shrinking, ageing and outmigration of youth is negatively impacting many regions and risks leaving these places in a development trap.

Harnessing talent in Europe’s regions

In recognition of this challenge, the European Commission issued the Communication Harnessing Talent in Europe’s Regions in January 2023. This Communication led to the establishment of the Talent Booster Mechanism and the Harnessing Talent Platform, which aim to support regions facing a sharp decline in the working age population, a low and stagnating share of people with tertiary education and a significant departure of young people. These initiatives offer tailor-made, place-based and multi-dimensional solutions to support regions most affected by the demographic transition.

Figure 2.1. Overview of the Talent Booster Mechanism
Copy link to Figure 2.1. Overview of the Talent Booster Mechanism

Smart adaptation of regions to the demographic transition

Pillar 2 of the Talent Booster Mechanism targets regions at risk of falling into a ‘talent development trap’, which are regions that have historically faced a high rate of departure of young people. Ten regions, including the Nord-Vest, were selected based on an open call to receive support to address their demographic challenges with a targeted study focusing on land use and spatial planning, multi-level governance, subnational government finance and public investment, and public service delivery.

Adapting to demographic change in order to remain attractive

Meeting the challenge of demographic change requires focusing on both adaptation and attractiveness. Adaptation strategies seek to ensure policies, governance structures and public services are aligned with a changing demographic structure. Attractiveness initiatives aim to address quality of life factors to create an attractive environment and opportunities for current and potential residents.

These approaches reinforce one another:

Adapting land use to be more efficient can not only make public services easier and less costly to provide but can also transform neighbourhoods into more attractive and lively environments that better serve current needs and attract residents and visitors.
Adapting multi-level governance structures, public finances and investment in line with population changes can help to limit fiscal pressure from population ageing and facilitate more efficient public services, creating fiscal space for investment in attractiveness.
Adapting public service delivery through digitalisation and mobile solutions, for example, can keep costs in check while also attracting younger populations and remote workers seeking residential mobility.

The necessity of adaptation thus becomes an opportunity to rethink and improve what makes places attractive and sustainable in the long-term.

Source: European Commission (2023[2]), Harnessing talent in Europe’s regions, https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/information-sources/publications/communications/2023/harnessing-talent-in-europe-s-regions_en (accessed on April 2025); European Commission (n.d.), Talent Booster Mechanism, https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/policy/communities-and-networks/harnessing-talent-platform/talent-booster-mechanism_en (accessed on April 2025); European Commission (2025[3]), Harnessing Talent Platform, https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/policy/communities-and-networks/harnessing-talent-platform_en (accessed on April 2025).

Socio-economic context

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The Nord-Vest Region is one of eight NUTS 2 development regions (TL2 regions according to OECD classification) in Romania. It shares international borders with Hungary to the northeast and Ukraine to the north, as well as domestic borders with the Nord-Est, Centru and Vest (Figure 2.2). The region is characterised by a predominantly rural landscape.

Figure 2.2. Nord-Vest is situated on border of Hungary and Ukraine and comprises six counties
Copy link to Figure 2.2. Nord-Vest is situated on border of Hungary and Ukraine and comprises six counties

Territorial organisation of the Nord-Vest region

The region comprises of six counties (TL3 regions according to the OECD classification): Bihor, Bistrița-Năsăud, Cluj, Maramureș, Satu Mare, and Sălaj. The territorial and administrative structure of Nord-Vest includes 446 territorial administrative units, comprising 15 cities (municipii), 28 towns (orașe) and 403 rural communes (comune). Law No. 351/2001 on the approval of the National Spatial Plan – section IV Network of Settlements - defines the status of localities based on criteria such as population size, economic activity and the presence of administrative institutions. Cities are urban localities with significant economic, social, cultural and administrative presence, while towns are smaller urban areas. Communes are rural administrative units made up of one or more villages.

Nord-Vest is a diverse region with imbalances between urban and rural areas

Nord-Vest is spread across 34,159 km², with a total population of 2,531,913 inhabitants (as of 2023). Bihor is the geographically largest county, accounting for 22% of both the region’s land area and population. Cluj is the second-largest in surface and the most populous, hosting 28% of the regional population. The spatial distribution of the population is heterogenous, with sparsely populated rural areas coexisting alongside densely populated urban centres, such as Oradea (187 249 inhabitants, as of 2021) and Cluj-Napoca (330 992 inhabitants, as of 2021) (Figure 2.3).

Figure 2.3. The Nord-Vest region is a rural region with several important urban centers
Copy link to Figure 2.3. The Nord-Vest region is a rural region with several important urban centers

Population distribution across Nord-Vest, 2021

The Nord-Vest development region of Romania is notable for its ethnic diversity, comprising significant Hungarian and Roma communities, as well as a growing population of Ukrainian refugees. The Hungarian population accounts for about 20% of the region’s inhabitants and the Roma population for about 3.5%, with a higher concentration in Bihor County. The Roma community continues to face challenges related to social inclusion and access to education and employment. Following the onset of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, the Nord-Vest region, particularly Maramureș County, has seen an influx of Ukrainian refugees. Romania has received over 3 million Ukrainian refugees, with approximately 100 000 remaining in the country (DG ECFIN, 2023[5]). The share of the population at risk of poverty is 14.7%, lower than the national average of 21.1%, having declined by 14 percentage points since 2013 (TEMPO, 2025[6]).

Nord-Vest region faces population decline, suburbanisation and rural ageing

Nord-Vest has experienced long-term population decline, although to a lesser extent than other regions in Romania. In the 10 years to 2024, the region’s population decreased by 1.8%, which was below the national average (4.0%). Within Nord-Vest, population dynamics vary significantly across counties. Cluj County experienced population growth until 2021, reflecting the status of Cluj-Napoca as a key economic and academic hub. In contrast, Sălaj and Maramureș counties have experienced persistent and significant population decline, with decreases of 5% between 2013 and 2023 (Figure 2.4).

Figure 2.4. Population decreased in all counties between 2013 and 2023
Copy link to Figure 2.4. Population decreased in all counties between 2013 and 2023

Population changes by county in Nord-Vest, 2013-23

The sustained population decline in Nord-Vest is driven by both negative natural change and net migration (Figure 2.5). The region recorded a negative natural balance since 2012, linked to lower fertility, at 1.55 children per woman in Nord‑Vest in 2023, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. The negative natural balance was also related to ageing of the generation who were born in the 1970s during a baby boom resulting from pro-natalist policies under Nicolae Ceauşescu’s communist regime. The natural balance reached its lowest point in 2021, largely due to the increased mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Beyond this temporary shock, the persistent natural decrease reflects broader socio-economic shifts, including rising income levels, increasing adoption of urban lifestyles, and changing gender roles in society, all of which contribute to lower fertility rates (Bignami, 2024[7]; OECD, 2024[8]).

Figure 2.5. The population of the Nord-Vest region is declining because of low birth rate and international outmigration
Copy link to Figure 2.5. The population of the Nord-Vest region is declining because of low birth rate and international outmigration

Decomposition of population change (persons) by year, 2012-22

The region experienced a pronounced wave of international outmigration between 2014 and 2021 following Romania’s accession to the European Union in 2007. Since 1989, over 5 million Romanians emigrated abroad. On average, around 4 500 more people left the Nord-Vest than arrived each year between 2015 and 2024. As Nord-Vest has converged towards the EU average in terms of GDP per capita the emigration rate has been slowing. The Nord-Vest region is emerging as an increasingly attractive destination within Romania, driven by positive economic performance of key urban centres. This is reflected in a sustained pattern of net domestic in-migration over the period (Figure 2.5). In 2022, the Nord-Vest region even experienced a notable influx of international immigrants, primarily due to the displacement caused by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

In the past decade, internal migration flows have been concentrated in metropolitan areas, notably Cluj-Napoca and Oradea. These cities recorded population growth rates 23% to 69% higher than rural areas, driving significant youth outmigration from the countryside. Nevertheless, despite their attractiveness, these cities continue to face net losses of highly skilled youth to Bucharest and international destinations.. Although population levels in city centres have stabilised or declined, metropolitan peripheries are expanding (Figure 2.7). The rapid suburban expansion reflects diverse dynamics, driven both by families seeking larger living spaces and by students in search of affordable housing.

Figure 2.6. Nord-Vest is experiencing suburbanisation and population decline in rural areas
Copy link to Figure 2.6. Nord-Vest is experiencing suburbanisation and population decline in rural areas

Population change in localities in Nord-Vest, Romania, 2011-21

Urban centres such as Cluj-Napoca, Oradea attract young residents in pursuit of better employment prospects and improved living standards, while rural areas are aging. The higher education sector, concentrated in Cluj-Napoca, brings diverse youth who migrate in pursuit of education, including some students from Western Europe. In 2020, youth participation (15-24 years) in education stood at 62.1%, the second highest in the country after the București-Ilfov region and slightly below the EU average (65.6%) (Eurostat, 2025[15]). At the same time, rural populations are experiencing a rise in aging populations (Figure 2.7). Between 2014 and 2021, the elderly population in rural areas increased by 1%.

Figure 2.7. Metropolitan areas are becoming younger, while remote places are ageing
Copy link to Figure 2.7. Metropolitan areas are becoming younger, while remote places are ageing

Distribution of population age groups in core cities, metropolitan cities and rural areas, 2011-21

The Nord-Vest region is projected to continue to experience population decline and aging, with rural counties more impacted

Nord-Vest is projected to continue experiencing population decline, with a decrease in population of 15% by 2050 (Figure 2.8). Amongst the eight development regions in Romania, the projected population decline (until 2050) of Nord-Vest is expected to be smaller than other regions, while the most significant decline is projected in Sud-Vest Oltenia. Within the Nord-Vest region, the projection varies significantly across counties. Population is expected to decline sharply in most rural counties of Sălaj and Satu Mare, with a decline of 23% and 19% respectively.

Figure 2.8. Nord-Vest is projected to shrink at slower rate than Romania overall
Copy link to Figure 2.8. Nord-Vest is projected to shrink at slower rate than Romania overall

Projected population change, change relative to 2020 baseline (=100)

Nord-Vest population predictions highlight the ageing of the region. The number of young people (15-49 years old) will decrease by 41% by 2050, while the share of the elderly population (65+) will grow by 23% (Figure 2.9). Furthermore, there is a projected 24% decrease of the working age population (15-64), which is faster than the decline in the population as a whole.

Figure 2.9. The population of Nord-Vest is forecast to rapidly age in coming years
Copy link to Figure 2.9. The population of Nord-Vest is forecast to rapidly age in coming years

Current and forecasted population distribution across age groups and gender, 2023-50

Nord-Vest is an economically dynamic where some urban centres are flourishing

Nord-Vest is a dynamic and rapidly growing region that is steadily converging toward the EU average in terms of GDP per capita. Although its GDP per capita remains below the EU27 and Romanian averages, the region experienced a 57% increase between 2011 and 2020 (Table 2.1). This positions Nord-Vest as the third fastest-growing region in Romania, with an average annual GDP per capita growth rate of 5.11%, following București-Ilfov (7.4%) and Vest (5.5%). The region’s strong economic performance is largely driven by increasing labour productivity, which, while remaining below the EU average, grew by 79% from 2011 to 2020. Despite its economic dynamism, Nord-Vest faces challenges in innovation performance. The region's expenditure on R&D (GERD) accounted for only 0.2% of GDP, significantly below the Romanian (0.46%) and EU27 averages (2.28%).

Region	GDP per capita		Productivity		Unemployment Rate		Income of households (Purchasing Power Standard per capita)		Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D
2020	% change 2011-20	2020	% change 2011-20	2020	% change 2011-20	2020	% change 2011-20	2020	% change 2011-20
OECD average	41,470	+7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.72%	+0.41%
EU27 average	39,088	+5%	65,200	+13%	6	-35%	19,500	+ 15%	2.28%	+0.28%
ROU: Romania	26,162	+39%	26,000	+60%	5	-31%	12,000	+ 93%	0.46%	-0.001%
RO11: Nord-Vest	24,370	+57%	24,000	+79%	4	-24%	11,800	+ 122%	0.2%	-0.27%

Note: Annual GDP, US $, volume, constant PPPs, reference year 2015. Productivity is per worker (Nominal labour productivity - euros). Unemployment rate (Total, % of labour force 15+) is presented for EU28. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D is in % of GDP. The share of inactive population is computed as a share of inactive population within the age group of 15- 64 years old on the entire population.

Source: OECD (2022[19]), Regional Economy database, https://stats.oecd.org/OECDStat_Metadata/ShowMetadata.ashx?Dataset=REGION_ECONOM& ShowOnWeb=true&Lang=en (accessed on 28 February 2025), Eurostat (2025[20]), Nominal Labour productivity by NUTS 3 region, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nama_10r_3nlp/default/table?lang=en (accessed on January 2025). Eurostat (2025[21]), Income of households by NUTS 2 region, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nama_10r_2hhinc/default/table?lang=en (accessed on January 2025). Eurostat (2025[22]), GERD by sector of performance and NUTS 2 region, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/rd_e_gerdreg/default/table?lang=en (accessed on January 2025). Eurostat (2025[23]), Employment by sex, age, economic activity and NUTS 2 region (NACE Rev. 2) (1 000), https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/view/lfst_r_lfe2en2?lang=en (accessed on January 2025). OECD (n.d.[4]) OECD Database on Regions, Cities and Local Areas, https://localdataportal.oecd.org/maps.html?indicator=POP_T&latitude=47.2035&longitude=23.4065&zoom=6.9648 (accessed on December 2024).

The Nord-Vest’s 39 billion EUR economy is focused on primary sectors, industry, trade and transport. Industry, particularly manufacturing, remains the backbone of Nord-Vest’s economy, accounting for 27.6% of total employment, significantly above the EU average of 17.6% (Table 2.2). However, the share of this sector is gradually declining, with a negative growth rate of -2.56%. Agriculture, forestry and fishing also represent a high but declining share of employment compared to the EU average, reflecting a shift towards a more capital-intensive production. Conversely, knowledge-intensive services are expanding rapidly. The professional, scientific and technical activities sector, and the administrative and support service activities sector have experienced the highest growth rate, accounting for 45.22% of growth in the workforce. Additionally, wholesale and retail trade, transport, accommodation and food services, as well as public administration, defence, education, health, and social work, have seen significant increases.

Economic activity (NACE Rev. 2)	EU- 27		Romania		Nord-Vest
Share in employment (2020)	Share in employment - growth rate (2014-2020)	Share in employment (2020)	Share in employment - growth rate (2014-2020)	Share in employment (2020)	Share in employment - growth rate (2014-2020)
Industry	17.6%	-4.47%	22.9%	2.10%	27.6%	-2.56%
Wholesale and retail trade, transport, accommodation and food services	23.6%	-1.11%	27.5%	31.85%	26.6%	22.09%
Public administration, defence, education, human health and social work activities	25.6%	3.55%	15.1%	16.88%	14.6%	25.37%
Agriculture, forestry and fishing	3.4%	-30.51%	11.5%	-54.89%	10.6%	-53.41%
Construction	6.8%	1.31%	10.5%	35.70%	9.9%	34.16%
Professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative and support service activities	10.0%	9.53%	5.6%	24.25%	4.7%	45.22%
Arts, entertainment and recreation; other service activities; activities of household and extra-territorial organisations and bodies	5.1%	-2.97%	2.8%	2.94%	2.8%	22.87%
Information and communication	3.9%	38.36%	2.4%	35.34%	1.8%	23.17%
Financial and insurance activities	2.8%	-1.70%	1.4%	1.18%	1.1%	7.49%
Real estate activities	0.9%	13.19%	0.3%	22.04%	-	-

Source: Eurostat (2025[23]), Employment by sex, age, economic activity and NUTS 2 region (NACE Rev. 2) (1 000), https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/view/lfst_r_lfe2en2?lang=en (accessed on January 2025).

Although Nord-Vest is less export-intensive than Romania as a whole, its strategic location offers a strong comparative advantage. The recent accession to the Schengen Area has reduced border controls, which combined with transport network upgrades will reduce trade frictions and create new opportunities for cross-border trade and export growth from Nord-Vest. ‘Mechanical and electrical equipment’ was by far the largest goods export, accounting for 33.9% of the total value of regional goods exports. Only two other categories, ‘base metals and articles of base metal’ and ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ accounted for more than 10% of total regional goods exports (De Rosa and Valerio, 2020[24]).

Strengthening labour market participation will be essential to mitigate potential gaps in labour supply, service provision and to support long-term economic development. The structure of the labour market in Nord-Vest is shaped by the changing demography. While the region’s unemployment rate remains low and continues to decline, labour force participation challenges persist (Table 2.1). In 2023, the share of the inactive population was 32.2%, significantly higher than the EU average of 25%, in part due to the large number of students in the region.

Figure 2.10. Employment rate is higher for female
Copy link to Figure 2.10. Employment rate is higher for female

Employment rate by gender in Romania and Nord Vest, 2010-23

Labour force participation in Nord-Vest (67.3%) exceeds the national average (64%). In both cases, male participation rates are higher than female rates: 68.0% versus 59.7% at the national level, and 72.9% versus 61.3% in Nord-Vest. Gender gaps in participation have proven persistent and have gradually widened since 2014, suggesting that structural barriers to female labour market participation remain significant (Figure 2.10).

Strengthening the high-skilled workforce will be critical to enhancing the region’s long-term competitiveness, particularly in supporting a transition toward higher value-added production and export specialisations. Driven by strong economic performance Nord-Vest’s labour market is increasingly tight, underscoring the demand for a skilled workforce. Tightness indicates the region’s potential attractiveness as a destination for talent and investment. Labour market tightness is particularly pronounced in administrative and support service activities, which emerge as the most constrained category across most regions, indicating a shortage of workers (Figure 2.11). High-skilled industries such as information and communication, as well as professional, scientific and technical activities, also face significant labour market pressures. The labour market is tighter in Nord-Vest than Romania more generally. Analysis also reveals similar patterns across occupational groups. Labour market tightness is particularly pronounced in clerical and service occupations, as well as in high-skilled managerial and professional roles.

Figure 2.11. Tightness by industry and skill group
Copy link to Figure 2.11. Tightness by industry and skill group

Relative labour market tightness by industry (3 most tight industries within the region) and occupation (3 most tight occupations within the region)

Understanding the talent development trap and its drivers

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In some regions, demographic decline is compounded by a shrinking base of skilled individuals, leaving them without the talent needed to develop. In its 2023 Communication on Harnessing Talent in Europe’s Regions, the European Commission identifies Nord-Vest as one of the 82 regions in the European Union most exposed to this. In a “talent development trap” regions face both a declining working-age population and challenges in attracting or retaining skilled workers, undermining their long-term development.

Nord-Vest is characterised by a sustained net outmigration of its young population

International emigration of youth has been a key driver of population decline in Romania (Figure 2.12). Between 2014 and 2021, emigration rates among the youth population consistently exceeded those of the general population, affecting both high and low skilled segments of the labour force in Nord-Vest. There has been a general trend of high youth outmigration, albeit with an abnormal decline in outmigration observed in 2021, which may be attributed to students temporarily returning to their hometowns during the COVID‑19 crisis. Skilled youth outmigration of is part of a broader trend across many regions in Romania. In 2016, 23% of Romanian emigrants aged 15 and above residing in OECD countries were highly educated (OECD, 2019[28]). As highlighted in the previous section, while cities like Cluj-Napoca attract students, many young and educated individuals continue to leave the region once they receive their education in search of opportunities in Bucharest or abroad, particularly in Western Europe.

Figure 2.12. Net youth outmigration was high until 2021
Copy link to Figure 2.12. Net youth outmigration was high until 2021

Net migration rate for population aged 15 to 39 in Nord-Vest, Romania, 2012-22

Despite local job opportunities, young people often emigrated

The regional economy remains heavily reliant on low- to medium-tech manufacturing and agriculture, which offers limited opportunities for the increasingly highly educated youth, contributing to growing skills mismatches in the local economy and accelerating high-skill emigration. Additionally, the public administration, education and health sectors are under considerable pressure, yet attract a relatively small share of the young working-age population. The situation is even more critical in rural areas, where opportunities for young, skilled individuals are extremely limited or altogether absent.

Among youth aged 15–24, the number of workers in all labour market categories – employed, unemployed and inactive – has declined as the population has shrunk (Figure 2.13). For individuals aged 25 and above, the number of employed persons has grown, while unemployment and inactivity have declined. The decline in the number of young workers, including among those who are employed, indicates that even when local job opportunities exist, many young people choose to migrate, either to the capital or abroad, in pursuit of better employment prospects and living conditions.

Figure 2.13. Young individuals leave the region regardless of their employment status
Copy link to Figure 2.13. Young individuals leave the region regardless of their employment status

Growth of the population in each labour market category by region and age group (2011-22)

Labour market tightness and youth outmigration risk undermining development

High-demand positions in the labour market are more frequently being filled by younger cohorts than older, late-career workers. This generational shift is indicative of a broader structural transformation. Younger, more highly educated workers are increasingly concentrated in high-skill and complex occupations, whereas older workers continue to dominate traditional sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. However, as noted in the previous section, high-skill industries and occupations in the region face significant labour market tightness. This raise concerns that the outmigration of the young population could jeopardise the observed convergence dynamics and hinder Nord-Vest’s transition toward a high-skill, knowledge-based economy. Meanwhile, the public administration, education and health sector faces increasing labour pressure, yet they account for a lower share of employment among the young working‑age population. Maintaining the attractiveness of these professions for younger cohorts is essential to securing equitable and sustainable access to public services.

Figure 2.14. The youth population is more prominent in higher-skilled roles
Copy link to Figure 2.14. The youth population is more prominent in higher-skilled roles

Employment by skill and industry share by age, 2022

Institutional and policy context

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Romania is a unitary state encompassing two tiers of subnational governments1. The upper level comprises 41 county governments and the city of Bucharest, which holds a special status (Figure 2.15). Each county is governed by a county council, elected by popular vote, and a president, selected by the members of the county council, all for a 4-year term (OECD, 2023[31]). The lower level comprises 3 181 local administrative units (LAUs) divided into cities, towns and communes, each with a mayor and local council elected by popular vote on a four‑year term. Communes can contain multiple villages, which do not have their own administrative authority.

Figure 2.15. Multi-level governance system is characterised by oversight from the central government
Copy link to Figure 2.15. Multi-level governance system is characterised by oversight from the central government

Romanian model of multi-level governance applied to the Nord-Vest region

Romania has several administrative bodies that operate alongside county and local governments. At the regional level, Romania is divided into eight development regions, each with a Regional Development Agency (RDA; Agenții pentru Dezvoltare Regională) that acts as a Managing Authority for certain EU funds, in particular the ERDF-funded Regional Programmes. RDAs are considered as a public utility body, with a legal personality and governed by a Regional Development Council (Consilii pentru Dezvoltare Regională) made-up of elected representatives from county and local governments. RDAs regions also have responsibility for the formulation, implementation and monitoring of regional-level strategies (e.g. Smart Specialisation strategy), fostering partnerships with stakeholders (e.g., academia, civil society, private sector) and providing technical support to county and local governments. At the county level, each county has a prefect appointed by the national government to ensure compliance of county and local governments with national policies and laws, and to support cross-sectorial coordination (OECD, 2023[31]). In each county there are also county directorates (Direcții județene), which are deconcentrated bodies of the national government responsible for delivering sector-specific services under the supervision of their respective national ministries (including for Education, Public Health, Water and Environment, Labour and Social Protection, Emergency Situations, Roads and Infrastructure, Environment, Police, Public Procurement, Payments and Social Services). Major cities can also form a metropolitan area (Zone metropolitane), which is a voluntary partnership with surrounding towns and communes to deliver defined functions.

The Nord-Vest development region encompasses 6 counties, 15 cities, 28 towns and 403 communes, as well as 5 legally constituted metropolitan areas (Cluj-Napoca, Oradea, Baia Mare, Satu Mare and Zalău). In the region, the North-West RDA is the Managing Authority for the 1.4 billion EUR Regional Programme 2021-2027 and is also an intermediary body under the national Health Programme (Programul Sănătate) linked to the National Health Strategy 2022-2030 (North-West RDA, n.d.[32]). The North-West RDA is governed by the Nord‑Vest Regional Development Council, which is composed of the presidents of the six county councils and one representative of the local administrative units for each county who is appointed from each county (North-West RDA, n.d.[33]).

Decentralisation processes have been slow moving in recent years

Romania has undergone gradual decentralisation since the 1990s. The 1991 Constitution established following the Romanian Revolution in 1989 laid the foundation for local autonomy and the decentralisation of public services. Since then, a series of laws has gradually expanded local authorities’ powers, starting with grating of financial competences to local governments (Law No. 189/1998 on Regional Development and Law No. 215/2001 on Local Public Administration (now Administrative Code 57/2019)). The eight development regions (including Nord-Vest) were established in 1998 and strengthened in 2004 as part of the country’s effort to align with the European Union’s regional policy (Law No. 189/1998 and Law No. 315/2004 on Regional Development). Adoption of the framework law on decentralisation in 2006 (Law No. 195/2006 on the Decentralisation of Public Administration) transferred further responsibilities to subnational governments and laid out a pathway for further decentralisation (OECD, 2023[31]; OECD, 2024[34]; Murphy and Ghencea, 2023[35]).

Despite these advances decentralisation processes have been slow in recent years. While a 2017 General Strategy for Decentralisation (Decision No. 229/2017) aimed to accelerate the transfer of competences to local authorities, its implementation is limited. Most recently, the update to the Administrative Code (Emergency Ordinance No. 57/2019 on the Administrative Code) and the law on Local Development Consortia (Law No. 138/2022) were enacted to provide a more comprehensive framework consolidating previous legislation to better clarify the roles of public administration and strengthening coordination with territorial administrative units. While these regulations present a step towards harmonising legislation and offering greater flexibility, the country’s General Strategy for Decentralisation only remains partially implemented. Romania has also had a long-standing political debate on regionalisation in the context of its fragmented county structure.

Romania remains fiscally centralised, limiting county and local government scope for policy interventions

Romania remains fiscally centralised but subnational governments do have a major investment role and support the implementation of national policies. Subnational governments account for a fifth of total public expenditure (8.7% of GDP) and receive a quarter of government revenue, both well below EU and OECD averages (Figure 2.16). Fiscal autonomy is limited, as indicated by tax revenues only representing 4.6% of total subnational revenue, well below the OECD average of 17.4%. Conversely, subnational governments are highly dependent on grants and shared taxes, which represent 83.7% of their revenue. Subnational governments have a much larger role for public investment than their role in general public expenditure, being responsible for around half of total public investment in Romania, in line with OECD and EU average. Around one-third of total subnational government expenditure was on public investment in 2023, well above the OECD average (11.3%) (OECD, 2024[36]). Much of this local investment is supported by EU and national funds (Chapter 4).

Figure 2.16. Subnational government expenditure and tax revenue in Romania is below the OECD and EU averages
Copy link to Figure 2.16. Subnational government expenditure and tax revenue in Romania is below the OECD and EU averages

Subnational government expenditure, investment, revenue, tax revenue and debt in Romania as a percentage of general government and GDP, as compared to OECD and EU27 averages, 2022

County and local governments have fewer competencies relating to demographic change than in many other EU countries

The central government maintains primary responsibility across most policy domains in Romania, including for areas most directly impacted by demographic change. This includes responsibilities for policy formulation, legislation, resourcing, regulation and provision of services across education, healthcare, migration and social protection, among other areas (Table 2.3). As mentioned earlier, implementation of central government policies is supported by county directorates that are connected to the central government ministry.

County and local governments maintain responsibility for public services of local interest and support the implementation of central government policies and investments. County governments are primarily responsible for supporting socio-economic development at the county-level through the preparation of development strategies and supporting county scale investments. Their main competences include co‑ordination and management of county hospitals, county roads, county public transport, cultural institutions and certain education institutions (Table 2.3). Local governments are responsible for supporting local socio-economic development through the preparation of local development strategies, undertaking spatial planning and delivering investments. Their main competencies relate to the provision of public services of local interest, including water supply, sewerage, waste management, local roads, public lighting, public parks and local public transport. They are also responsible for the issuance of marriage certificates and birth records, as well as building permits (OECD, 2023[31]).

Function of government	Potential demographic impact	Central government (including County Directorates)	County governments	Local governments	County and local govt. expenditure represents^*
Economic affairs	Moderate (+ / -)	National road networks, railway networks and facilities, employment; agriculture, rural development, irrigation, telecommunications / IT, mining, tourism, commerce and energy.	Management of local airports; county roads; county infrastructure network (shared)	Local public passenger transport; local roads; industrial parks	19.6% of SNG exp.; 1.7% of GDP; 19.1% of total public exp. in category
Health	High (-)	Legislating, funding and administering general and specialised medical services and paramedical services, primary healthcare, hospital services, preventative healthcare and public health care services.	Facility maintenance for county hospitals and provision of public health units (primary, secondary, tertiary)	Local public health	22.8% of SNG exp.; 1.9% of GDP; 25.9% of total public exp. in category
Education	Moderate (+ / -)	Defining curriculum, standards and teacher salaries for pre-primary, primary, secondary, higher and vocational education and training, special education.	Facility maintenance for special education	Facility maintenance for pre-school, primary, secondary and adult education.	6.6% of SNG exp.; 0.6% of GDP; 15.1% of total public exp. in category
Social protection	High (-)	Legislating, funding and administering social care for children and youth, elderly, disabled people, social exclusion / poverty, immigrants. Supporting migrant integration. Providing social welfare centers and unemployment subsidies/benefits.	Child and disability allowances; social services and specialised services; elderly and disabled (shared); medical and social assistance (shared)	Social services and specialised services for domestic violence; child protection; elderly; medical and social assistance (shared)	13.1% of SNG exp.; 1.1% of GDP; 9.3% of total public exp. in category
Housing and community amenities	Moderate (+ / -)	Housing (subsidies)		Urban planning and urbanism; water supply; public lightning; sanitation; social housing (shared)	10.0% of SNG exp.; 0.8% of GDP; 48.8% of total public exp. in category
General public services	Unclear	National level planning, population records (shared).	County level planning	Local level planning; management of state domain; population records (shared)	12.4% of SNG exp.; 1.1% of GDP; 20.7 % of total public exp. in category
Environmental protection	Unclear	Nature preservation, air pollution, soil and groundwater, and climate protection		Waste, sewerage and wastewater	5.7% of SNG expenditure; 0.5% of GDP; 65.6% of total public exp. in category
Recreation, culture and religion	Unclear	Media/ broadcasting and publishing services, religious affairs; cultural institutions	Tourism development and promotion	Local cultural institutions and tourism development and promotion	8.2%of SNG expenditure; 0.7% of GDP; 67% of total public exp. in category

Note: Authors’ assessment of the potential demographic impact based on literature. Note that RDAs are not included, but are responsible for the financial management of EU funds.

Source: Helping Regions adapt to demographic change: Questionnaire (2024), OECD/UCLG (2022) 2022 Country Profiles of the World Observatory on Subnational Government Finance and Investment, https://www.sng-wofi.org/

The central government is seeking improve the long-term demographic outlook, while preparing for an older population

The central government in Romania has adopted several policies that aim to alter the long-term demographic profile of the country. These policies focus on fertility, families and immigration. FamilyStart and Sfânta Ana, for example, seek to promote a higher birth rate by expanding childcare options and improving the quality of family life (OECD, 2024[34]). Efforts are also underway to attract and retain people to contribute to the labour force through, for example, the Student Invest and Housing Construction programmes, which offer financial support and accessible housing options, with the aim to create a favourable environment for young people to build careers and families (Ministry of Investments and European Projects, 2024[37]). The National Strategy for Romanians Abroad 2023-2026 aims facilitate the return and (re)integration of Romanian citizens living abroad (The Government of Romania, 2022[38]).

The central government has also developed several policies that aim to help adjust to the impacts of population ageing and improve labour force participation. These include a focus on supporting the ageing populations’ growing health needs, as well as better integrating underrepresented groups into the workforce. The National Strategy on Long-Term Care and Active Aging 2023-2030 aims to empower elderly individuals to live independently, while ensuring improved access to quality care through better management, funding and preventive measures (EC, 2022[39]). The Education and Employment Program 2021-2027 seeks to improve education accessibility and quality, including by reducing early school leaving, supporting vulnerable groups and facilitating youth integration into the labour market (OECD, 2024[34]). The Government Strategy for the Inclusion of Romanian Citizens Belonging to the Roma Minority for the Period 2022-2027 provides a guiding and cross-sectorial strategy for the promotion of social inclusion and improvement of living conditions, as well access to education and the job market for the Roma population. The strategy also emphasises the role of local authorities as key actors in promoting social inclusion, guided by subsidiarity and decentralisation principles (Government of Romania, 2021[40]).

Family and Youth	Education and Employment	Ageing and Health	Economic Development	Integration of Migrants and Minorities
FamilyStart National Youth Strategy 2024–2027 Youth Guarantee StudentInvest	Employment Strategy for 2021-2027 Increasing Work Prospects of NEETs Through Capacity Building and Improved Policy Measures (atWork4NEETs) Education and Employment Program 2021-2027	National Strategy on Long-Term Care and Active Aging 2023-2030 National Health Strategy 2022-2030 New Pensions Law	National Urban Policy Housing Construction Program National Housing Strategy The National Long Term Renovation Strategy	National Strategy on Immigration 2021-2024 Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund 2021-2027 Government Strategy for the Inclusion of Romanian Citizens Belonging to the Roma minority for the Period 2022-2027 National Strategy for Romanians Living Abroad 2023-2026 National Strategy on Social Inclusion and Poverty Reduction 2022–2027

Family and Youth

Education and Employment

Ageing and Health

Economic Development

Integration of Migrants and Minorities

FamilyStart

National Youth Strategy 2024–2027

Youth Guarantee

StudentInvest

Employment Strategy for 2021-2027

Increasing Work Prospects of NEETs Through Capacity Building and Improved Policy Measures (atWork4NEETs)

Education and Employment Program 2021-2027

National Strategy on Long-Term Care and Active Aging 2023-2030

National Health Strategy 2022-2030

New Pensions Law

National Urban Policy

Housing Construction Program

National Housing Strategy

The National Long Term Renovation Strategy

National Strategy on Immigration 2021-2024

Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund 2021-2027

Government Strategy for the Inclusion of Romanian Citizens Belonging to the Roma minority for the Period 2022-2027

National Strategy for Romanians Living Abroad 2023-2026

National Strategy on Social Inclusion and Poverty Reduction 2022–2027

Source: Helping Regions adapt to demographic change: Questionnaire (2024); OECD interviews (2024)

Regional, county and local authorities are predominantly focused on improving quality of life to attract and retain residents

At the regional level, North-West RDA has a primary ability to improve the attractiveness of the region by supporting investments that promote economic development. As mentioned above, the RDA has adopted several strategies and programmes focused on attracting or retaining residents, tourists and investors, which collectively can help increase the incentive for youth to stay. This includes the Nord-Vest Regional Development Plan and the Smart Specialisation Strategy, as well as planned investments being supported as part of those plans that cover transport, digitalisation, health, human capital, education and employment that are contained in the Regional Programme 2021-2027 (Box 2.2) (North-West RDA, n.d.[32]).

Box 2.2. The North-West RDA and the Nord-Vest Regional Programme (RP)

Copy link to Box 2.2. The North-West RDA and the Nord-Vest Regional Programme (RP)

North-West RDA manages EU funds (ERDF) through the Regional Programme (RP), by preparing a Regional Development Plan and by facilitating and overseeing project selection. County and local governments, as well as businesses, universities and civil society organisations, receive funding from the North-West RDA to implement investment projects. Established in 1998, the North-West RDA has co-ordinated three RPs to allocate funding from European structural funds (and pre-accession funds prior to 2009), though it had only been a direct managing authority for the current RP. To this end, the North-West RDA is responsible for launching project calls, evaluating applications, selecting beneficiaries and overseeing implementation and compliance.

The latest ROP for 2021–2027 proposes EUR 1.19 billion of ERDF financing alongside EUR 243 million of national co-financing. The RP envisions Nord-Vest to become one of the most dynamic European regions in terms of smart and sustainable economic growth. The 2021–2027 RP includes seven priorities (Competitive region through innovation, digitalisation and dynamic enterprises; Region with smart localities; Region with environmentally friendly localities; Region with sustainable multi-modal urban mobility; Accessible region; Educated region; Attractive region).

In addition, the Nord-Vest region benefits from other EU funds and programmes managed at a national level, such as the Cohesion Fund, the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development, Interreg cross-border cooperation programmes, and the Recovery and Resilience Facility. The Nord-Vest region also participates in four cross-border Interreg programmes: Interreg NEXT Hungary-Slovakia-Romania-Ukraine, Interreg NEXT Romania-Ukraine, Interreg Romania-Hungary and Interreg Danube. The management and co-ordination of these funds are entrusted to a range of authorities, with the North-West RDA sometimes acting as a regional facilitator or an intermediary body.

Source: North-West RDA, Regional Programme 2021–2027, https://www.nord-vest.ro/en/programul-operational-regional-nord-vest-2021-2027-aprobat-de-guvernul-romaniei-si-transmis-comisiei-europene-pentru-verificare-si-aprobare/

County and local governments also have a focus on implementing strategies and investment focused on improving local attractiveness. Each county has a development strategy that outlines the proposed approach for supporting economic development. Most counties have also actively supported the development of industrial parks to help attract businesses and increase employment opportunities (North-West RDA, n.d.[32]). Local government sometimes also provide facilities and services for the elderly, such as day care centres and rehabilitation spaces, and support the integration of minorities and migrant populations; however, provision of these services is inconsistent across municipalities. Local not-for-profit organisations also play a role in adapting to demographic change. For example, the Cluj International Citizens Council is a grass roots organisation that serves as a platform for societal and political participation for the city's growing number of international residents.

While the North-West RDA, as well as county and local governments, do not have responsibility for major policy areas linked to demographic change, they still have a key role to ensure development plans and investments are aligned with future population needs. For example, they develop and implement many initiatives to help develop, retain and attract youth across Nord-Vest (Box 2.3).

Box 2.3. Initiatives to develop and attract youth talent in Nord-Vest

Copy link to Box 2.3. Initiatives to develop and attract youth talent in Nord-Vest

Nord-Vest benefits from many initiatives to develop, attract and retain youth (Table 2.5). Subnational authorities are responsible for implementing many national plans, as well as designing local programmes that make the most of local assets to improve Nord-Vest’s attractiveness to youth. These initiatives span many policy areas, including education, employment, rural development and SMEs, highlighting the multi-sectoral approach needed to help Nord-Vest tackle the talent development trap.

Level	Initiative
National	National Programme for Reducing School Drop-Out – this RRF-funded initiative provides grants to high-risk schools to implement projects that increase school participation and improve testing scores. It targets secondary schools with the goal of increasing completion of lower-secondary education and increasing the transition rate to upper-secondary education to ensure students have the basic skills needed to succeed in the labour market (Eurydice, 2025[41]).
	National Implementation Plan for Initial and In-Service Vocational Education and Training – this plan defines measures that align with national and EU objectives in vocational education, including by offering locally-relevant traineeships for school students (Eurydice, 2025[42]). It also extends dual education to higher education to combine academic learning with practical work experience. By 2025/26, 29 bachelor level and 13 master level programmes are expected to be offered, including by Babes-Bolyai University in Cluj-Napoca (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, 2025[43]).
	National Youth Strategy – this strategy targets youth and disadvantaged youth in particular to increase their access to learning, promote youth employment and entrepreneurship and support opportunities for rural youth (European Commission, 2025[44]).
	National Strategy for Employment– this strategy includes the EU Youth Guarantee, which provides employment, training or education opportunities to all young people aged under 30, supporting their skill development and avoiding labour market scarring (Ministry of Labour and Social Protection, 2021[45]).
	Child Guarantee Action Plan – this plan provides actions to implement the European Child Guarantee, aiming to provide affordable social services, housing and education to children, thus making Romania a more attractive place to grow and start a family (Ministry of Family, Youth and Equal Opportunities, 2023[46]).
Regional	Talent T4S3 – this project is implemented by the North-West RDA to help youth build local careers by strengthening Smart Specialisation Strategies that support local innovation, training and employment ecosystems (Interreg Europe, 2024[47]).
Regional	ROP Priority 6 and investment in universities –under priority 6 of the Regional Operational Plan, the North-West RDA is investing in university infrastructure to reinforce Nord-Vest’s attractiveness for youth seeking higher-education (North-West RDA, n.d.[48]).
Local	Com’ON Cluj-Napoca – this initiative is funded by Cluj-Napoca City Hall and Council to provide a participatory process for youth to create, vote on and implement ideas that improve the lives of youth (Com'On Cluj-Napoca, n.d.[49]).
	TalentMagnet – this EU-funded programme provides small municipalities in the Danube Region with technical support to build the institutional capacity needed to tackle youth out-migration (Consilil Judetean Harghita, 2020[50]).
	European Youth Village – this programme empowers young people from rural areas to participate in public decision-making and community organization, with the aim of helping address the unique needs of rural youth in Romania (European Youth Village, n.d.[51]).

Source: Provided in table.

References

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[42] Eurydice (2025), National reforms in vocational education and training, https://eurydice.eacea.ec.europa.eu/eurypedia/romania/national-reforms-vocational-education-and-training.

[40] Government of Romania (2021), Strategy of the Romanian Government on Inclusion of Romanian Citizens Belonging to the Roma Minority for the period 2022-2027, https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2022-10/1_1romania_national_roma_strategic_framework_2022_2027.pdf.

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[37] Ministry of Investments and European Projects (2024), FamilyStart and StudentInvest credit program, https://oportunitati-ue.gov.ro/en/program/programul-de-creditare-familystart-si-studentlnvest/.

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[38] The Government of Romania (2022), National Strategy for Romanians Abroad 2023-2026, https://dprp.gov.ro/web/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Proiect-Strategia-Nationala-pentru-Romanii-de-Pretutindeni-08.12.2022.pdf#page16.

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[25] The National Institute of Statistics Romania Tempo Online (2025), Employment rate of labour resources by gender, macroregions, development regions and counties, http://statistici.insse.ro:8077/tempo-online/#/pages/tables/insse-table (accessed on 29 August 2025).

Note

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← 1. Subnational governments refer to all levels of government below the national level, including regional and state governments, other intermediary government levels (e.g., départements, counties, provinces) and municipal/local/metropolitan governments. [OECD/LEGAL/0492]

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