International steel market conditions are under renewed pressure. Global steel demand has contracted for four years in a row, with the rate of decline accelerating to an estimated 2.6% in 2025. Projections for 2026 indicate nearly stagnant demand globally, followed by a gradual recovery to 1 885 million tonnes by 2030. While demand in China is expected to continue its long-term decline in the coming years, the OECD area should enjoy modest growth in the near term. India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and other developing economies continue to show stronger growth prospects. Steel production growth remains concentrated in emerging economies, led by India and parts of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), supported by infrastructure spending, industrialisation and new steelmaking capacity. Profitability in the steel sector has remained weak, reflecting the pressures of excess capacity and excess production on steel prices. World steel trade is undergoing significant shifts, as China and other regions with excess capacity continue to flood international markets with steel and – while trade actions are increasing – there is increasing evidence they are being circumvented.
OECD Steel Outlook 2026
Abstract
Global steel demand is projected to rise by 0.4% to 1.8 billion metric tonnes in 2026, following an estimated 2.6% contraction in 2025, with the recovery expected to remain uneven and geographically concentrated (Table 2.1). However, recent developments in the Middle East suggest greater uncertainty around the regional demand outlook, with potential downside implications for global steel demand in 2026 (Worldsteel, 2026[1]). On a regional basis, Africa is likely to continue to show strong growth in demand in 2026, while demand in Asia, by far the world’s largest regional steel market, is expected to rise slightly in 2026, following a sharp decline in 2025. OECD Member countries are expected to eke out a small increase in demand in 2026, following a slight decline in 2025. By 2030, global demand could increase by just 0.9% per year, driven by growth in Asia and Africa.
Note: Steel demand is measured in crude steel equivalent. CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) measures the expected annual growth. Mt: Million tonnes.
Source: OECD Steel Secretariat.
Asia and Oceania
In China, steel demand declined sharply, by 6.9%, in 2025, reflecting a continued downturn in China’s property sector. In January 2026, the government formally abandoned a “three red lines” borrowing policy that had been designed to limit developer borrowing and reduce financial risk. The limits had triggered a developer liquidity crisis (Reuters, 2026[2]). The policy changes, however, are viewed by some as providing limited relief to the industry, as buyer confidence is weak and new home prices are still falling. Construction activity thus remains subdued. Demand is projected to contract further in 2026 by 0.6%, reflecting a prolonged downstream downturn that is expected to continue until 2030 (S&P Global, 2026[3]).
India recorded strong demand growth of 9.8% in 2025, fuelled by sustained infrastructure and construction activity (GMK Center, 2026[4]). Consumption is projected to rise further in 2026 by 6.7% and to remain relatively strong through 2030.
Steel demand in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries increased by 4.3% in 2025 and is projected to grow by a further 3.5% in 2026, with growth remaining at similar levels through 2030. The regional outlook is supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing expansion, with governments prioritising transport connectivity, energy systems and development of industrial zones (Kallanish, 2025[5]; Yieh Corp, 2026[6]).
Combined demand in Japan and Korea declined by 5.1% in 2025, reflecting weak domestic consumption and soft manufacturing activity. Demand is projected to grow slightly by 0.8% in 2026, then slip gradually through 2030. In Korea, the demand weakness will be partially offset by activity in the shipbuilding and infrastructure sectors. At the same time, the government has announced a support package for the steel sector, although this is aimed primarily at producer competitiveness and upgrading rather than stimulating steel demand directly (GMK Center, 2025[7]).
Americas
In the United States, steel demand increased by 0.7% in 2025 and is projected to rise by a further 0.6% in 2026, supported by public infrastructure spending and industrial policy aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing. Shipbuilding may emerge as an additional source of steel demand, following the release of the White House’s America’s Maritime Action Plan (February 2026), which outlines plans to revitalise US shipyard capacity through federal investment and procurement reform. If implemented as envisaged, this could gradually lift demand for steel-intensive products, such as plate and structural sections (The White House, 2026[8]). In parallel, continued investment in manufacturing and digital infrastructure, including data centres, is expected to provide further support to steel demand, as will the effects of public infrastructure programmes (Worldsteel, 2026[1]).
In Canada, steel demand is estimated to have grown by around 2.7% in 2025 and is projected to increase modestly by about 0.9% in 2026. While the overall outlook remains constrained by trade uncertainty, recent policy initiatives point to continued downstream support for steel-using sectors. For example, in February 2026, the federal government announced a new automotive strategy that emphasises domestic vehicle manufacturing, battery supply chains and clean-technology investment, backed by industrial funding, tax incentives and measures to strengthen Canadian content in supply chains, including steel and aluminium (Government of Canada, 2026[9]).
In Mexico, steel demand declined sharply in 2025, falling by around 4.6%, while low-priced Asian steel imports surged. Near-term recovery is expected to be gradual, as downstream activity remains subdued and stronger improvement will depend on firmer industrial momentum and a normalisation of regional trade flows. With economic activity projected to pick up gradually, steel demand should begin to bottom out and begin recovering in 2026 (OECD, 2026[10]).
In Central America and South America, steel demand is projected to have posted a modest increase of 0.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, reflecting mixed trends in the activity of downstream sectors. The Latin American construction and automotive sectors managed to eke out slight growth, machinery recorded a stronger increase, while household goods contracted (ALACERO, 2026[11]). The region has experienced record-high import levels due to global excess capacity. Steel demand is expected to gradually pick up, with 2.4% growth projected for 2026.
Europe
Steel demand across the EU-27 and the United Kingdom contracted by 1.2% in 2025, reflecting subdued industrial and construction activity and continued pressures on energy-intensive manufacturing. While steel demand is projected to recover modestly by 1.4% in 2026, the outlook is not clear-cut. Much will depend on the competitiveness of downstream sectors, which are affected by energy and other input costs.
France experienced one of the steepest declines in Europe, with steel demand falling by 12.6% in 2025, reflecting weak construction activity and subdued manufacturing activity. In 2026, steel demand is projected to edge up by 0.3%. Market conditions remain uncertain, as construction activity continues to underperform and analysts do not expect a meaningful improvement before the second half of the year. At the same time, the level of EU-funded infrastructure projects that supported demand in 2025 is set to decline through 2026, limiting downstream support for steel demand (Eurometal, 2026[12]).
In Germany, steel demand contracted sharply by 6.1% in 2025, reflecting weak industrial activity, subdued construction and deteriorating conditions for German goods in foreign markets. In 2026, elevated import pressure, weak domestic momentum and ongoing competitiveness challenges are expected to constrain any meaningful improvement (Kallanish, 2026[13]). Against this backdrop, demand is projected to recover only modestly, by 1.1%, in 2026.
Africa and the Middle East
Steel demand in Africa and the Middle East strengthened markedly in 2025, with Africa expanding by 16.1% and the Middle East by 6.4%. Growth is projected to moderate in 2026, to 4.4% in Africa and 1.6% in the Middle East, as investment cycles mature and macroeconomic constraints re-emerge. Overall, demand remains on a positive trajectory, but momentum is likely to become increasingly uneven and project-driven. The impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will affect demand in the coming months, with the scope and magnitude yet to be determined.
Egypt, the largest steel-consuming economy in Africa, recorded a 1.1% contraction in 2025, reflecting a pronounced slowdown in construction and real estate activity. Major producers, including Ezz Steel, cut rebar prices sharply in November 2025 after local sales fell by around 20% year-on-year, with domestic consumption dropping significantly (Manassa News, 2025[14]). Reduced government procurement and stagnant housing sales further weighed on steel sales. Demand is projected to rebound by 3.5% in 2026, suggesting a partial cyclical recovery.
South Africa recorded a 1.5% decline in steel demand in 2025. The downturn is mirrored in producer performance, with ArcelorMittal South Africa reporting a 12% drop in crude steel production and sales and shutting its long-steel operations to stem losses amid persistently soft local demand (Reuters, 2026[15]). A moderate recovery of 2.3% is projected for 2026, but the outlook remains fragile and contingent on improvements in domestic activity and ongoing restructuring efforts, including potential state-backed transactions aimed at stabilising the sector.
Saudi Arabia recorded strong growth of 11.5% in 2025, reflecting large-scale government-led construction, industrial localisation and energy infrastructure investment under Vision 2030, which is a multi-trillion USD initiative to diversify the economy. Demand growth is expected to moderate to 4.1% in 2026 but remain robust relative to regional peers, supported by an execution-driven project pipeline in transport, urban development and industrial zones (Mark & Spark Solutions, 2026[16]).
In the Islamic Republic of Iran (hereafter “Iran”), crude steel production increased by 3.7% in 2025, supported by domestic construction and manufacturing demand, with the industry reporting strong late-year output (Tehran Times, 2026[17]). However, recent developments could lead to a collapse in the market, depending on the extent of damage due to military conflicts in the region.
The turbulence in steel trade has contributed to divergence in steel prices in different markets. Prices increased markedly in the United States and the European Union at the beginning of 2025 and maintained high yet differentiated levels for the rest of the year, in contrast to developments in other regions.
Prices of two representative products, hot-rolled coil and rebar, rose sharply in both the United States and in the European Union at the beginning of 2025 (Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2). In stark contrast, prices in China and the other covered economies remained stable, at low levels. In January 2026, prices for the two products were more than twice as high in the United States as in China, and 50% higher in the European Union than in China.
The slowdown in construction in China depressed Chinese domestic steel prices, particularly prices of rebar, which plummeted. This, in turn, compressed Chinese steel producers’ margins and prompted them to shift away from construction-linked long products such as rebar, towards flat products (Lv and Jackson, 2026[18]). The shift from rebar to flat products for export increased supply pressure in third-country markets, where prices weakened, making any sustained steel price increases unlikely in the short to medium term.
Hot-rolled coil prices, in USD per metric tonne, 2020-2026
Note: Latest price: 16 January 2026.
Source: Kallanish (2026[19]).
Rebar prices, in USD per metric tonne, 2020-2026
Note: Latest price: 16 January 2026.
Source: Kallanish (2026[19]).
An examination of steel futures prices, which often provide an early signal of short-term spot price movements, suggests that market participants expect existing cross-market price differentials to endure rather than converge in the near term. The recent, modest increase in Chinese prices appears to be mirrored in advanced-economy markets, leaving the relative dispersion broadly unchanged.
Steelmaking raw material prices were relatively stable through the first half of 2025, before starting a gradual upward trend that has continued through early 2026. For 2025 as a whole, iron ore prices rose by 9%, coking coal by 17%, and scrap by 2% (Figure 2.3). As a result, the price of a typical basket of raw materials used for steelmaking increased by 10% in 2025. The margin between steel and raw material prices has declined steadily since the spring of 2025, adding to the profitability pressures on the steel industry (see more below).
Iron ore, metallurgical coal and scrap prices, in USD per metric tonne, 2024-2026
Note: Latest price: 23 January 2026.
Source: Kallanish (2026[19]).
World steel production generally moves in parallel with global consumption. Within the totals, however, there are shifts, reflecting changes in competitive conditions and capacity developments at the country and regional levels (Table 2.2). As with consumption, Asia dominates production, accounting for 73% of the world total, which is higher than the region’s share of world consumption (68%). China continues to maintain its role as the world’s largest producer, though its share is expected to decline both absolutely in terms of tonnage and relative to other producers over the next several years. Declines are also expected in Korean and Japanese steel production through 2030. India, on the other hand, is expected to significantly increase its production, adding 40 million tonnes (Mt) by 2030. ASEAN countries are also expected to boost production by 30 Mt, while North American and European producers increase production, albeit by lesser amounts.
Note: CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) measures the expected annual growth. Mt: Million tonnes.
Source: OECD Steel Secretariat.
Americas
In the United States, crude steel production increased by around 3.1% in 2025 and is projected to rise by a further 0.7% in 2026. The expansion in output was supported primarily by tighter import policies, which lowered import penetration and enabled domestic mills to operate at higher utilisation rates, while firm demand from data-centre construction, energy facilities and infrastructure investment provided an additional underpinning. Major producers reported utilisation rates of around 85% across sheet mills in 2025 (Kallanish, 2026[20]). According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), the capacity utilisation rate reached 80% on 18 April 2026 (AISI, 2026[21]).
In Canada, crude steel production is projected to increase by around 1.0% in 2026. This modest improvement is being supported by new import measures and enhanced trade enforcement, following a late 2025 government support package aimed at addressing import pressure and global overcapacity (CSPA, 2025[22]). In parallel, recent federal-provincial energy agreements aimed at advancing new pipeline infrastructure have explicitly emphasised the development of Canadian steel and pipe supply chains. Major domestic pipe producers reported record output in 2025, supported by oil and gas activity. Further gains are expected if large-scale energy projects proceed (Canadian Energy Centre, 2026[23]). While the overall increase remains modest, these measures are helping to stabilise mill utilisation while shielding the sector from global overcapacity and trade distortions. Overall, Canada’s production outlook remains stable, with growth relying primarily on policy support and steady domestic demand.
In Mexico, crude steel production declined by around 6% in 2025, largely due to weaker domestic demand and the impact of higher US steel tariffs, which reduced Mexico’s access to its main export market (Argus Media, 2026[24]). In December 2025, the Mexican Congress approved amendments to the Law on General Import and Export Taxes, increasing tariffs on steel imports from countries without trade agreements with Mexico, as part of the broader Plan México strategy. These measures aim to counter unfair trade practices and promote import substitution by strengthening domestic production (Canacero, 2025[25]). Despite these trade policy adjustments, output is projected to recover only marginally in 2026, by 0.6%, before strengthening more strongly through 2030.
In Brazil, crude steel output declined by around 1.6% in 2025, even as exports rose sharply, with shipments to Europe doubling after hikes in US tariffs. At the same time, domestic prices weakened in the face of rising low-cost imports from Asia, prompting producers to redirect output towards export markets (Argus Media, 2026[26]).
Europe
Steel production in the European Union (27) and the United Kingdom declined by 2.4% in 2025, reflecting weak industrial activity and continued pressure from imports. A modest 1.4% rebound is projected for 2026, supported by gradual improvements in manufacturing demand. In April 2026, the Council presidency and the European Parliament reached a provisional agreement on a new regulation to shield the EU steel market from the negative effects of global overcapacity, including a revised tariff rate quota system that lower the overall volume of import quotas by approximately 47% (compared to 2024), and an increase of out-of-quota duties from 25% to 50%, and a newly introduced melt and pour provision; the regulation will replace the current safeguard measures, as from 1 July 2026 (Council of the European Union, 2026[27]). However, elevated energy costs and rising investment requirements linked to decarbonisation continue to constrain upside potential, leaving production broadly flat over the near term.
In Germany, steel output declined sharply in 2025, falling by 8.8% in light of weak domestic demand, high energy costs and import pressures (SteelOrbis, 2026[28]). The industry is restructuring, with Thyssenkrupp, for example, announcing job cuts and production reductions (Reuters, 2025[29]). In 2026, steel output is expected to increase slightly and is projected to remain flat through 2030.
Italy stands out among large European producers, having recorded positive growth in steel production in 2025 of 2.4%. This increase was supported by a strong rebound in late 2025, with crude steel output rising sharply in December alongside higher production of both flat and long products, suggesting a broad-based end-of-year recovery after several years of contraction (Kallanish, 2026[30]). Output is projected to expand modestly in 2026, by 1.2%, with production expected to rise gradually through 2030.
In the Republic of Türkiye (hereafter “Türkiye”), crude steel production increased by 2.3% in 2025 and is projected to rise further in 2026 by around 2.9%, before strengthening towards 2030. The growth has been supported by stronger domestic activity and a rebound in exports, with overseas shipments rising by more than 12% in 2025. Turkish steelmakers also expect further production and consumption growth in 2026 as market conditions improve (GMK Center, 2026[31]).
Africa and the Middle East
In Egypt, crude steel output fell by 1.1% in 2025, reflecting short-term demand pressures and weaker exports. Production is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2026 and continue rising through 2030, reinforcing Egypt’s position as the region’s main growth engine. Supporting this outlook, major producer Ezz Steel has announced plans to invest approximately USD 1.16 billion over the next two years to expand production capacity, with a strategic shift towards domestic demand amid rising global trade actions taken on steel. The company has highlighted construction and infrastructure as key drivers of future demand, while recent government stimulus measures aimed at expanding local rolled product production further underpin medium-term growth prospects (GMK Center, 2026[32]). China’s XinFeng Steel plans to invest approximately USD 10 billion in the establishment of a large integrated steel complex in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone, targeting an annual production capacity of around 10 Mt of automotive and high-value industrial steel products (SteelOrbis, 2026[33]); the project aligns with Egypt’s strategy of industrial localisation and value-chain upgrading.
In South Africa, crude steel production declined by 4.7% in 2025, with output remaining well below historical norms at roughly a quarter below pre-pandemic levels and around half of the sector’s mid-2000s peak. The weakness in 2025 reflects entrenched challenges facing the industry, including high electricity costs, logistics bottlenecks, rising input prices, subdued domestic demand and persistent pressure from low-priced imports, which have constrained capacity utilisation and limited producers’ ability to respond to demand recovery. While production has stabilised since 2022, the absence of meaningful growth in 2025 underscores the fragile condition of the sector (SAISI, 2026[34]). Against this backdrop, output is projected to recover by 2.2% in 2026, before strengthening more visibly towards 2030, pointing to a gradual rebound that depends on improvements in operating conditions and targeted policy support.
Steel output in the Middle East rose by 5.1% in 2025 and is expected to increase marginally by 0.8% in 2026, supported by large-scale infrastructure projects and state-led industrial strategies. Military conflict in the region, however, will have a profound impact on the region’s steelmakers.
In Saudi Arabia, crude steel production increased by 11% in 2025 and was projected to grow further in 2026 by 3.8%, before accelerating more visibly towards 2030. Industry reporting indicates that this strong momentum has been driven primarily by large-scale domestic infrastructure and industrial projects linked to national diversification efforts, which have lifted steel demand and utilisation rates (Fastmarkets, 2026[35]).
In Iran, crude steel production increased by 3.7% in 2025, supported by domestic construction and manufacturing demand, with industry reporting strong output late in the year (Tehran Times, 2026[17]). However, this momentum is expected to end in the near term, as the conflict in the area has damaged major steel and energy infrastructure, disrupted power and gas supply, and constrained export capacity, contributing to a projected decline in steel production in 2026.
In 2024, profitability in the basic steelmaking sector remained weak, reflecting the pressures of overcapacity on prices. Steel firms situated in partner economies were nevertheless able to improve their performance somewhat, while conditions in OECD Member countries deteriorated further (Figure 2.4). Concurrently, global steel producers have increased their leverage, reversing a decade-long deleveraging trend. The median representative firm in partner economies has a debt-to-asset ratio more than 50% higher than its counterpart in OECD Member countries, a significant difference. In partner economies, the industry benefitted from a continued expansion of support measures, with firms receiving rising volumes of direct grants and access to below-market finance. These supports are discussed in greater detail in Chapter 4 of this report.
World steel trade eased in 2025, but China bucks the downward trend, boosting its exports to a record level
While world steel exports declined by 6.2% in 2025, those from China surged by 13.8%, to a record level of 131.2 Mt. China has seen its exports more than double during 2019-2025 and the country’s share of world exports has soared, rising from 19% in 2019 to 41% in 2025. ASEAN exporters also saw their exports more than double during 2019-2025, reaching 20.8 Mt in 2025.
World steel trade has fluctuated in recent years, with annual exports (excluding intra-EU and intra-ASEAN transactions) ranging between 308 and 353 Mt since 2019 (Table 2.3). However, there have been significant shifts in trade flows, with OECD steel-producing economies experiencing declines in their global position. European exports fell by 53% from their 2019 level to 50 Mt in 2025, with a 19% decline between 2024 and 2025 alone. At the same time, exports from North America and South America dropped to 14 Mt and 12 Mt, representing declines of 20% and 18% compared to 2019 levels, respectively.
EBITDA divided by total sales, in %
Note: Profitability is defined as EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) to sales revenue in per cent. The lines show the median values for firms in the sample.
Source: OECD MAGIC database.
In million tonnes
Note: Exports exclude EU27 and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) intra-trade.
Source: OECD based on data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB), the United Nations Comtrade Database and the World Steel Association.
The increase in Chinese exports is due in part to weaknesses in domestic demand for steel, with exports providing an outlet for domestic production that exceeds domestic demand. Increased subsidisation is also a key factor, as it can lower costs, thereby helping boost foreign sales. Low prices may also have contributed to the country’s success in boosting foreign sales volumes. With export unit values falling sharply, the growth in the value of China’s exports has lagged the tonnage growth by a wide margin (Figure 2.5). A similar pattern can be observed in ASEAN, where export value growth has lagged export volume growth. China, ASEAN, and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have gained share in key importing markets (Figure 2.6).
Apart from China, the share of steel production that is exported has generally declined. Europe, for example, exported 26% of its production in 2025, down from 47% in 2019. South America now exports roughly one-third of its production, down from 41%. Asian countries, apart from China, have seen a steady decline in their steel export share, from a high of 42% at the start of the decade to 30% in 2025.
Steel imports also demonstrated significant shifts in 2025. In North America, imports declined by 15.8% amid strengthened trade actions in the region. Sharp double-digit declines were also registered in Asia, with Chinese imports sliding from 40.2 Mt in 2020 to a mere 7 Mt in 2025. Sharp annual declines also occurred in the Middle East (down 52.4%), with import cutbacks in India, Japan and Korea. On the other hand, import levels rose in Europe, notably in the EU27-UK area, where safeguard measures were also in place. Semi-finished steel, which was not subject to the safeguards measure, accounted for nearly half of the increase.
Evolution of value and volume of steel exports by region, 2019-2025, 2019 = 100
Note: EU27 and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) intra-trade is excluded.
Source: OECD based on data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) and the United Nations Comtrade Database.
Change in imports by source and market region, 2019-2025, in million tonnes
Note: Selected countries include OECD Steel Committee members that are among the top 30 steel-producing economies.
ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations; CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States; MENA: Middle East and North Africa.
Source: OECD based on Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) and United Nations Comtrade data.
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