Selected series from the scenarios presented in this paper are available via the OECD Data Explorer here.
Questions on the scenarios and dataset should be sent by writing to EcoOutlook@oecd.org.
The following papers present previous versions of long-run scenarios:
Guillemette, Y. and J. Château (2023), "Long-Term Scenarios: Incorporating the Energy Transition", OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 33, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Guillemette, Y. and D. Turner (2021), "The Long Game: Fiscal Outlooks to 2060 Underline Need for Structural Reform", OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 29, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Guillemette, Y. and D. Turner (2018), "The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060", OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 22, OECD Publishing, Paris.
OECD (2014), “Growth Prospects and Fiscal Requirements over the Long Term”, in OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 1, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Johansson Å. et al. (2013), “Long-Term Growth Scenarios”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1000, OECD Publishing, Paris.
The following are background papers with methodological details on the long-term global model:
Guillemette, Y. (2019), “Recent improvements to the public finance block of the OECD’s long-term global model”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1581, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Guillemette, Y., A. de Mauro and D. Turner (2018), “Saving, Investment, Capital Stock and Current Account Projections in Long-Term Scenarios”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1461, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Guillemette, Y. and D. Turner (2017), “The fiscal projection framework in long-term scenarios”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1440, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Guillemette, Y. et al. (2017), “A revised approach to productivity convergence in long-term scenarios”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1385, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Cavalleri, M. and Y. Guillemette (2017), “A revised approach to trend employment projections in long-term scenarios”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1384, OECD Publishing, Paris.