This paper has been prepared by Yvan Guillemette.
An earlier version of this policy paper was discussed at a meeting of Working Party No.1 (WP1) of the OECD Economic Policy Committee. The meeting participants, as well as Diogo Baptista, Sebastian Barnes, Jean Château, Hélia Costa, Alain de Serres, Åsa Johansson, Tobias Kruse, Nigel Pain, Pierre-Alain Pionnier, Mauro Pisu, Sébastien Turban, David Turner, D. Filiz Unsal and Volker Ziemann provided comments on earlier versions of the paper. Thomas Chalaux helped with demographic projections, Isabelle Fakih and Veronica Humi with editorial assistance, Patrice Orliange and Casper Meyer Zu Schlochtern with database assistance and Steven Cassimon and Wendy Stokle with release materials and data visualisations.