OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025‑2034

7. Fish and other aquatic products

Abstract

This chapter describes market developments and medium-term projections for world fish and aquatic products markets for the period 2025-34. Projections cover consumption, production, trade and prices. The chapter concludes with a discussion of key risks and uncertainties which could have implications for world fish and other aquatic products markets over the next decade.

7.1. Projection highlights

Consumption of aquatic animal foods is expected to increase globally, with Asia accounting for 75% of the growth, followed by Africa (15%), the Americas (11%) and Oceania (1%). Consumption in Europe is set to decline marginally.

Global apparent per capita consumption of aquatic animal foods is projected to increase, reaching 21.8 kg by 2034, up from 21.1 kg in 2022-2024, but trends vary across regions. Africa’s per capita consumption is expected to decline, particularly in Sub‑Saharan Africa, despite an increase in total consumption.

Global prices of fish and other aquatic products are anticipated to decline in real terms, with fish oil prices experiencing the largest drop (-26%) due to high recent prices caused by fishing restrictions in Peru and strong demand driven by the high price of vegetable oil.

Aquaculture will remain the main driver of growth in fisheries and aquaculture production, which is projected to reach 212 Mt by 2034. It is projected to account for over 85% of additional output, increasing its share to 56% of total production.

Global exports of aquatic animal foods will continue to grow but at a slower pace, led by Asia (mainly The People’s Republic of China ˗ hereafter “China” ˗ and Viet Nam), while exports from Africa are expected to decline.

Fisheries and aquaculture face increasing uncertainties due to change in environmental conditions, trade tensions and evolving sustainability priorities. Changing environmental conditions are expected to negatively affect global production, though impacts will vary by region. Improved fisheries management could mitigate some effects. Additionally, trade policies due to geopolitical tensions, introduce further uncertainty. China’s evolving policies, with a growing focus on sustainable development, will also be a key factor influencing production in the coming decade.

7.2. Current market trends

Global fisheries and aquaculture production rose to about 193 Mt in 2024, driven by growth in both aquaculture and capture fisheries.1 Aquaculture production continued its upward trend, while capture fisheries recovered in 2024 after a marginal decline in 2023.

In 2024, the FAO Fish Price Index declined by 3.0%, reaching its lowest point in September before rebounding towards the end of the year. This marked the second consecutive annual decrease since the record high reached in 2022.

The volume of global trade in aquatic animal food products saw a slight increase in 2024, despite declines in imports from major markets such as the European Union and China. In China, increased aquaculture production was sufficient to reduce imports in spite of increased consumption. Fishmeal exports rebounded significantly in 2024, after a sharp decline in 2023 mainly due to lower production in Peru.

7.3. Market projections

7.3.1. Consumption

Global consumption of fish and other aquatic products to grow more slowly in the decade ahead

Global demand for aquatic products (including food and non-food uses) is projected to grow by 11% over the coming decade, well below the growth experienced over the last decade (24%). This is mainly due to an expected slowdown in demand growth in Asia (11% compared to 32% over the last decade). Demand for non-food uses of aquatic products, primarily for the production of fishmeal and fish oil, is expected to grow more slowly than demand for food uses (Figure 7.1). As a result, the share of total use allocated to food is projected to rise slightly, from 89% in the base period (average 2022-2024) to 90% by 2034.

Focusing specifically on food uses, global demand is projected to increase by 13% over the next decade, with population growth expected to drive demand growth. Total apparent2 consumption of fish and other aquatic foods is projected to reach 192 Mt (live weight equivalent) by 2034, an increase of 22 Mt compared to the base period (average of 2022-2024). Total apparent consumption is projected to expand in all regions except Europe, where marginal declines in per capita consumption and population are expected to limit growth. While Asia will remain the dominant source of additional demand, Africa is projected to experience the fastest growth rate, with total apparent consumption increasing by 24% by 2034, an acceleration compared to the previous decade when it was 20%. Asia will account for 73% of fish and other aquatic food products available for consumption by 2034. China on its own will account for 37% of that total. Global aquaculture will provide a growing share of fish and other aquatic products available for human consumption rising from 58% in the base period to 61% by 2034.

Over the next decade, global per capita consumption of aquatic foods is projected to grow by just 3.3%, a notable deceleration from the 12% growth recorded in the previous decade. And it is expected to reach 21.8 kg per capita per year, up from 21.1 kg in the base period. Per capita consumption is expected to rise across all regions, except in Europe where it is projected to be marginally down, and in Africa more particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth (+29%) is expected to outpace aquatic food supply (+23%)–highlighting the challenge of ensuring adequate food supply in the face of rapid demographic expansion.

Fishmeal and fish oil are projected to represent 83% of the 21 Mt live weight of fish and other aquatic products utilised for non-food uses in 2034. The rest will serve other non-food uses such as ornamental fish, fingerlings and fry, bait, pharmaceutical inputs, or as direct feed for farming. Fishmeal is primarily used in diets for farmed animals, particularly farmed fish. By 2034, 84% of fishmeal will be consumed by the aquaculture sector as feed, compared to 78% in the base period. China, being the largest aquaculture producer, is also the largest consumer of fishmeal, projected to account for 42% of world fishmeal consumption by 2034. While fishmeal is predominantly used as feed in the aquaculture sector, fishmeal is not the main feed source in aquaculture. The difficulty of further increasing fishmeal production has driven the sector to increasingly rely on other feed ingredients. For example, oilseed meals have been increasingly utilised in aquaculture feed formulations. By 2034, the use of oilseed meals in aquaculture is expected to grow by 37% reaching 11 Mt, while fishmeal usage in aquaculture is projected to rise by 16% to 4.9 Mt compared to the base period. Consumption of fish oil is characterised by a competition between aquaculture and dietary supplements for human consumption. By 2034, 59% of fish oil is projected to be fed to farmed fish, in particular salmon, up from 54% in the base period. Norway and the European Union will remain the main consumers of fish oil, accounting for 16% and 15%, respectively of the world total in 2034.

7.3.2. Production

Aquaculture to drive production growth, but pace to slow significantly

Global fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to increase from 189 Mt (live weight equivalent) in the base period to 212 Mt by 2034. Although the total volume continues to grow, both the growth rate and the absolute increase are declining. Over the next decade, global fisheries and aquaculture production is expected to rise by 12% (+23 Mt), compared to a 24% increase (+37 Mt) in the previous decade. Aquaculture remains the main driver of overall expansion, despite its decelerating growth (Figure 7.2). Nonetheless, aquaculture's importance to total production continues to rise, and it is projected to account for 56% of global fisheries and aquaculture production by 2034, up from 52% in the base period.

By 2034, global aquaculture production, based on the harvest of farmed aquatic animals, is expected to reach 118 Mt, marking a 20% increase compared to the base period. While this still reflects solid growth, it is considerably slower than the 51% expansion observed in the previous decade. The projected slowdown is largely linked to diminishing productivity gains at the global level, originating from stricter environmental regulations and a reduced availability of optimal sites for production. Asia will continue to dominate global aquaculture, accounting for an estimated 88% of total output by 2034, a share only slightly lower than in the base period (Figure 7.3). While aquaculture production is projected to grow in nearly all countries and regions, Asia is expected to record one of the slowest growth rates over the outlook period. Nevertheless, the overall distribution will remain heavily concentrated in Asia. China will retain its position as the top aquaculture producer, although its share of global aquaculture production is projected to level off at around 53%. This reflects rapid growth in emerging aquaculture producers, particularly India and Viet Nam, which are expected to expand their contributions to global aquaculture production significantly.

From a species perspective, strong aquaculture production growth is expected for shrimps and prawns (+38%), freshwater and diadromous fish excluding carp and tilapia (+29%) and salmonoids (+26%). However, for all species groups aquaculture production growth is expected to be significantly slower than in the previous decade.

Global capture fisheries production, based on the harvest of wild-caught aquatic animals, is projected to reach 94 Mt by 2034, representing a 3.2% increase compared to the base period. While part of this growth reflects the recovery from low anchoveta catches in Peru in 2023 due to stock management measures and the El Niño phenomenon, a gradual increase is expected over the outlook period, particularly in Africa and the Americas. While Asia will continue to account for just over half of global capture fisheries production by 2034, its share is expected to decline slightly as Africa and the Americas account for a larger share of total production. Modest growth in capture fisheries production will be driven by improvements in fisheries management, technological advancements, and reductions in discards and waste. However, short-term fluctuations may occur, such as the anticipated El Niño events in 2027 and 2031, which are expected to temporarily reduce catches in South America, resulting in a decline of around 2 Mt in global production during these periods.

Over the next decade, the quantity of capture fisheries production that is reduced to fishmeal and fish oil is projected to show an upward trend compared to the previous decade, while fluctuating between 15.2 Mt in El Niño years and 17.1 Mt during peak fishing years. However, this remains well below the levels of the 1990s, when around 26 Mt of wild fish were used for fishmeal and fish oil production. By 2034, global production of fishmeal and fish oil is projected to reach 5.9 Mt and 1.5 Mt, respectively, reflecting a 12% increase for both compared to the base period. The use of fish residue and by-products in fishmeal production is expected to rise steadily, driven by the growing demand for fish fillets, which generates more residues. For fish oil, the share sourced from waste saw a significant increase in 2023 due to the sharp plunge in fish oil production in Peru–which is mainly derived from whole anchoveta. This rise in the proportion of fish oil production from waste has impacted the base period's figures, leading to a slower rise in the proportion sourced from waste over the outlook period. By 2034, approximately 31% of fishmeal is expected to come from waste, up from 29% in the base period.

7.3.3. Trade

Asia to continue dominating trade of fish and other aquatic products, but growth to moderate

Over the past decade, the growth of aquatic trade has lagged behind the expansion of capture fisheries and aquaculture production, marking a notable shift from the strong trade-driven trends seen since the 1990s. This relative slower pace is expected to persist over the outlook period (Figure 7.4). Nevertheless, aquatic trade remains a vital contributor of foreign exchange earnings, employment generation and global food security. Fish and other aquatic products, both for food and non-food uses, will continue to be extensively traded, with approximately 35% of global fisheries and aquaculture production projected to be traded by 2034 (31% excluding intra-EU trade). This underscores the sector’s integration into global markets and its openness to international trade.

World trade of fish and other aquatic products for human consumption is projected to be 7.1% higher in 2034 than in the base period. This represents a slowing down compared to the 9.0% growth observed in the previous decade. High transportation costs, slower expansion of capture fisheries and aquaculture production and a desire to fulfil domestic demand with local production in some key regions, are the main drivers behind this slowdown in growth. By 2034, exports of fish and other aquatic products for human consumption are projected to reach 46 Mt (product weight), up from 43 Mt in the base period.

Asia is expected to continue dominating aquatic trade, accounting for nearly half of total exports of fish and other aquatic products for human consumption by 2034. China alone will represent 19% of the total. Viet Nam is projected to experience the largest increase in exported volumes by 2034 after China, with its share rising from 7% in the base period to 9% by 2034. In contrast, Africa’s exports are projected to decline by 12% by 2034 compared with the base period, reflecting a growing emphasis on meeting domestic demand.

Asia will remain the largest importing region, accounting for 42% of global imports of fish and other aquatic products for human consumption by 2034, although its import volumes are expected to grow only slightly (+0.7%). China’s import volumes are expected to decline by 2034, as domestic production increasingly caters to local consumer preferences amid a shrinking population, a trend also observed in Japan. Africa is forecast to experience the largest increase in imports (+27%), followed by the Americas (+11%), reflecting rising demand and insufficient domestic production capacity. In Europe and Oceania, imports of fish and other aquatic products for human consumption are projected to decline by 2034.

Exports of fishmeal are projected to rise by 8.0% relative to the base period, reaching 3.8 Mt (product weight) by 2034. Peru, the world’s largest fishmeal exporter, is expected to record one of the highest growth rates over the outlook period, driven largely by a strong rebound from the unusually low export volumes recorded during the base period. In particular, 2023 saw a sharp decline, with exports falling by half compared to 2022. China will further strengthen its position as the dominant global fishmeal importer, accounting for 52% of total imports by 2034, up from 48% in the base period, reflecting the growing feed demand from its expanding aquaculture sector. As a result, fishmeal import volumes are projected to decline in most traditional importing countries, such as Norway and the European Union. Fish oil exports are projected to increase by 9.0% by 2034. Peru, Viet Nam, and the European Union will lead global exports of fish oil. In Viet Nam, exports of fish oil have surged in 2023 and 2024 and are projected to continue rising over the outlook period. However, this increase is suspected to primarily consist of used cooking fish oil exported to the United States, where it competes in price with used vegetable cooking oil. On the import side, the European Union, Norway and the United States will remain the primary markets.

7.3.4. Prices

The prices of all products are expected to decline in real terms over the projection period

The prices of all product categories are expected to decline in real terms over the projection period, with the largest declines expected in fish oil (-26%, +0.8% p.a.) and traded fish products (-19%, -1.3% p.a.) (Figure 7.5). While the real prices in all groups are expected to decline until 2028, from 2029 onward the prices of fish oil and fishmeal are expected to grow slowly (with some fluctuations) while the prices of capture, aquaculture and traded fish products will continue to decline up to the end of the projection period. Relative to historic values, the real prices of capture, aquaculture, and traded fish products will remain low, while fish oil and fishmeal prices will be high, albeit lower than historic peaks (in 2023 for fish oil and 2012-14 for fishmeal).

In nominal terms, the prices for aquaculture and capture products are expected to rise by 8.7% (+1.0% p.a.) and 12% (+1.0% p.a.) respectively. However, in real terms prices are expected to fall by 13% in aquaculture and 10% in capture fisheries. In both cases, price declines are driven by production increases outstripping demand growth, competition from other protein sources, namely poultry, where prices are expected to decline over the projection period, and a general reduction in inflationary pressure. In aquaculture, the decrease in real prices is expected to be half as much as the previous decade, in part due to the substantial slowing of production growth in the outlook period. While in capture fisheries, the slow decline is in keeping with historic trends and is similar to the previous decade when prices declined by 12% in real terms.

Fish oil prices are expected to decline in both nominal (-7.5%, +2.7% p.a.) and real (-26%, +0.8% p.a.) terms, reflecting the unusually high prices in the base period. Fish oil prices experienced a 117% growth in nominal terms in the previous decade, but almost all this growth was between 2022 and 2023, when prices spiked due to supply constraints, caused by unusually low harvests of anchoveta in Peru and very high vegetable oil prices. As supply constraints continue to ease, the price of fish oil is expected to decline until 2028 in real terms before returning to its historic trend of slow growth driven by continuing strong demand from animal feed and human consumption. Prices will continue to fluctuate due to El Niño with declines expected in 2028 and 2032 as production rebounds.

Fishmeal prices are projected to increase in nominal terms (10%, +2.8% p.a.) and decline in real terms (-12%, +0.9% p.a.). However, the real term decline is significantly lower than in the previous decade when prices declined 24% from their historic peak in 2013-14. Prices are expected to continue declining in 2025 from the recent highs before settling into their historic pattern of remaining largely stable on average but with significant price movement due to El Niño driven impacts to anchoveta stocks.

7.4. Risks and uncertainties

Environmental change, shifting regulations and trade tensions could define production in the outlook period

Given their reliance on mobile resources and often fragile habitats, wild capture fisheries are susceptible to the environmental fluctuations. For instance, by mid-century, most countries are projected to experience a decline of over 10% in marine exploitable fish biomass particularly under the high emission scenario (Blanchard and Novaglio, 2024[1]) Short-term changes and extreme weather events - such as marine heat waves–are likely to have a greater impact on fisheries production over the outlook period than the longer-term warming trends. In particular, any difference in the expected intensity and duration of El Niño events will have large impacts on anchoveta production in Pacific, with knock-on effects on fish oil and fishmeal production and prices (FAO, 2024[2]). Additionally, there is some evidence that aquatic non-indigenous or invasive species have expanded into regions where previously they were not able to survive and reproduce, thereby challenging fisheries and aquatic ecosystems (Azzurro et al., 2024[3]). Changes in water availability and in environmental conditions can create challenges for aquaculture producers. The extent and intensity of these short-run impacts is a crucial source of uncertainty in the Outlook projections.

Importantly, improved fisheries management and adaptation planning can improve the resilience of the sector and mitigate some of the short- and long-term impacts of environmental changes. FAO’s Blue Transformation supports vulnerable states by promoting sustainable, resilient, and inclusive blue food systems. It focuses on three key goals (FAO, 2023[4]): expanding sustainable aquaculture, improving fisheries management, and upgrading value chains, through science-based policies, innovation, and partnerships.

Changes in environmental conditions also introduce some regulatory uncertainty. Firstly, adaptation measures may have impacts on both aquaculture and fisheries production. In fisheries, flexible management may lead to the closure of fisheries to protect stocks in some areas or increases in production in others. While in aquaculture, production sites may be forced to move further offshore to reduce exposure to sea temperature changes, increasing costs and impacting production. Importantly, the nature of these impacts will depend on where the production is located and the type of production itself, introducing uncertainty into the projections. Secondly, policies implemented to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aquatic production, may force both fishers and fish farmers to adjust production methods. Governments are beginning to use support policies to meet emission reduction goals, for example, but as yet little is known about the impacts of these policies on production or whether they can effectively reduce GHG emissions (OECD, 2025[5]). To address this uncertainty, precautionary integration of emission reduction and adaptation measures into fisheries and aquaculture management cycles is key (Bahri et al., 2021[6]); (Barange et al., 2018[7]), as well as due consideration of fisheries and aquaculture in national climate plans and strategies (Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions et al., 2024[8]).

The regulatory environment of fisheries and aquaculture is changing, and it is difficult to know what impacts these changes will have on production. In fisheries, the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which disciplines certain types of subsidies that can contribute to overfishing, requires fewer than 20 additional country acceptances before it comes into force. When it does come into force, the agreement may impact the nature of production and the structure of fleets in some areas. The second, more ambitious, phase of negotiations is currently moving slowly but should this change in the projection period, the impacts on the fisheries sector could be significant.

In aquaculture, regulatory shifts may also have impacts on the nature of production and the speed of growth. In China, any shifts in the focus of aquaculture policy as part of the Fifteenth Five Year Plan (2026-2030) will have significant impacts given China’s importance to global production. Beyond China, governments are increasingly focusing on aquaculture to meet a growing global demand for fish and other aquatic products, including by providing significant levels of government support to the sector. For example, across the European Union, the European Maritime Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund, allows members states significant leeway to direct their funding envelope toward aquaculture over the Outlook period. However, relatively little is known about extent, nature and effectiveness of government support to aquaculture, so how these policies change may impact production, and the value chain more generally, is not well understood, introducing uncertainty into the projections. To answer some of these questions, the OECD fisheries committee, has embarked on a new programme of work to classify and understand government support to aquaculture. To support countries in expanding their aquaculture sectors, the FAO Fisheries Committee endorsed in 2024 the Guidelines for Sustainable Aquaculture (FAO, 2025[9]), which offer a comprehensive framework to help policy makers and stakeholders responsibly expand and intensify aquaculture, balancing social, economic, and ecological well-being while increasing productivity and profitability.

Fish and other aquatic products are highly-traded, with complicated multi‑stage value chains spanning several countries. This makes then potentially sensitive to the impacts of escalating global trade tensions over the projection period. Trade policies that increase the costs and barriers to moving aquatic products around the globe will have unpredictable impacts on the availability of products in certain markets, prices and the structure of the value chains themselves. The extent and nature of these impacts are currently unknown, meaning they cannot be effectively captured in the projections introducing further sources of uncertainty.

Box 7.1. Addressing the underestimation of aquaculture production growth in the FAO Fish model

The FAO Fish model was developed in 2010 to generate the projections presented in the fish chapter of this publication and has been maintained and improved since then. In a recent assessment of the historical projections versus the actual trends in production, it was noted that the model tends to underestimate aquaculture production growth. Possible causes include underestimating growth in recent historical periods and inaccurate forecasts of exogenous variables. In order to eliminate these two potential issues, while replicating as much as possible the outlook procedure, all the aquaculture supply functions were calibrated using data from 2014 to 2017. This approach enabled the use of five years of historical data (2018-2022) to assess the accuracy of the forecasts produced by the supply functions. The dynamic simulation conducted prior to any model improvements clearly shows an underestimation of growth (Figure 7.6).

Seven improvements were introduced to the model. The first concerns the price used: since the Fish model operates at an all-species level, the evolution of the weighted average price may differ significantly from species-specific price trends. This was evident in the cases of Chinese freshwater crayfish and Peruvian shrimp and molluscs. The second improvement accounts for omitted interactions with other commodities or capture production, such as Chinese freshwater crayfish, which is primarily produced in integrated crayfish‑rice farms, and Peruvian molluscs, which rely on natural seed sources.

The third improvement addresses outliers, which were isolated using dummy variables. These outliers could result from statistical errors or extraordinary events, such as the Early Mortality Syndrome (EMS) virus outbreak in shrimp or COVID-19. The fourth improvement tackled mismatches between the calibration period and the forecast period. Sudden shifts in the first year of the outlook, often missed by constant elasticity functional forms, were captured using variable elasticity functional forms, correcting 17 supply functions.

The fifth issue was an overestimation of feed costs, which could be partly due to the model’s use of fixed feed conversion ratios (FCR) based on data from 2005 and 2006. According to Glencross et al. (2023[10]), FCRs for most species have only slightly decreased since then, with the largest reductions occurring between 1975 and 2000. While switching to variable FCRs did not give a significant improvement in the model’s overall performance, it did improve feed consumption estimates.

Despite all these changes, the model still underestimated aquaculture production growth. The remaining missing factor seemed to be productivity gains (beyond the lower FCR) or new production areas. This was addressed by incorporating a time trend in 35 species‑specific supply functions. Accounting for all these adjustments greatly improved the model’s performance. The error in the 2022 global aquaculture production forecast was reduced from -15% (or -13.8 Mt) to -0.4% (or -0.4 Mt).

References

[3] Azzurro et al., 2. (2024), Fisheries responses to invasive species in a changing climate, FAO, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd1400en.

[6] Bahri et al., 2. (2021), Adaptive management of fisheries in response to climate change, FAO, https://doi.org/10.4060/cb3095en.

[7] Barange et al., 2. (2018), Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options, https://www.fao.org/3/i9705en/i9705en.pdf.

[1] Blanchard, J. and C. Novaglio (2024), Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries – Projections to 2100 from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, FAO Publications, Rome, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd1379en.

[2] FAO (2024), El Niño impacts and policies for the fisheries sector, FAO, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd3812en.

[9] FAO, 2. (2025), Guidelines for sustainable aquaculture, FAO, https://doi.org/10.4060/cd3785en.

[4] FAO, 2. (2023), The FAO Blue Transformation roadmap, https://www.fao.org/3/cc6646en/cc6646en.pdf.

[10] Glencross, B. et al. (2023), “Harvesting the benefits of nutritional research to address global challenges in the 21st century”, Journal of the World Aquaculture Society, Vol. 54/2, pp. 343-363, https://doi.org/10.1111/jwas.12948.

[5] OECD (2025), OECD Review of Fisheries 2025, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/560cd8fc-en.

[8] Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions et al., 2. (2024), Integrating blue foods into national climate strategies: Enhancing nationally determined contributions and strengthening climate action, https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cd2482en.

Notes

← 1.  The term “fish and other aquatic products” refers to fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans, alligators, and aquatic plants.

← 2.  The term “apparent” refers to the amount of food available for consumption, which is not equal to the edible average food intake. The amount is calculated as production + imports – exports - non-food uses, +/- stocks variations, all expressed in live weight equivalent.