OECD Economic Surveys: Thailand 2025

3. Adapting to a warmer and more volatile climate

Charles Dennery

Abstract

Thailand is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, notably with flood and drought events becoming more frequent and more severe. Improving warning systems, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and tightening zoning restrictions can strengthen disaster preparedness. In agriculture, disseminating best practices (water and fertiliser management, cultivar selection, etc.) can increase resilience and facilitate adaptation. At the same time, the transition to carbon neutrality and net-zero is an ongoing challenge that needs significant economic transformation. This requires a comprehensive set of incentives, carbon pricing, regulations as well as efforts to reduce plastic and solid waste.

3.1. Thailand is exposed to the effects of climate change

Thailand faces potentially wide-ranging impacts from climate change. Floods and droughts have caused major damages in the past (Figure 3.1) and are both likely to become more frequent and more severe, according to climate projections. The 2011 floods caused 680 deaths, affected 13 million people and disrupted the major manufacturing base around Bangkok, and resulted in about USD 46.5 billion in economic damages (12.6% of GDP in 2011). While smaller in terms of economic impact, the 2016 and 2021 floods still affected 1.8 and 1.3 million people, respectively. The country is also exposed to droughts, which can be exacerbated by poor agricultural and water management practices. Severe droughts in 1979, 1994, 1999, and 2015 had important consequences for agriculture and livelihoods, especially in the poor northeastern region; damage from the 2015 drought represented about 0.8% of GDP. Even absent major climate disasters, agriculture, fishing and tourism are susceptible to suffer significant losses, while increased heat could reduce labour productivity among those working outdoors and increase air conditioning costs for indoor activities. The combined economic losses from climate change could amount to 4% of GDP per year by 2050 (World Bank, 2024[1]). This underscores the need for action on adaptation policies, especially for agriculture, fishing and tourism. It also calls for the government to improve cost-sharing in response to disasters, by developing private insurance and establishing a comprehensive fiscal risk management framework to identify, assess, and manage climate-related fiscal exposures (OECD, 2022[2]).

Figure 3.1. Floods and droughts are particularly costly in Thailand

Annual cost of damages as % of GDP, 2003-2024 (annual average) 

Note: EM-DAT records economic damages from natural disasters, by year and by country. It does not consider indirect damages, which is why total recorded damages differ between sources.

Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (2025); World Bank national accounts data; OECD calculations.

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At the same time, reining in future climate damage calls for further action to ensure that Thailand meets its emission-reduction goals as part of the global effort to reduce emissions. Policy has recently become more ambitious; in November 2025 the government announced plans to bring forward its target date for net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 2065 to 2050. Decarbonising electricity generation and transport, protecting forests, transitioning toward a low-carbon and sustainable economy and society, as well as reducing agricultural and industrial emissions, through carbon pricing and non-price measures, will be crucial to meet these objectives, while also helping to meet increasingly demanding emission standards on export markets.

This chapter first discusses the mix of adaptation policies that the country will need to address the consequences of climate change, particularly against flood risks, and to protect agriculture from droughts. It then provides an overview of recent progress and challenges in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions in Thailand, especially for power generation and transport, and ongoing efforts to protect the environment.

3.2. Dealing with more frequent climate events

3.2.1. Addressing flood and drought risks

River floods are the most significant natural hazard in Thailand, with a particularly high exposure in international comparison (Figure 3.2, Panel A). The Chao Phraya watershed – which includes the Bangkok area and represents about a third of the country’s land area and half of its GDP – was hit particularly hard by the 2011 floods. While exposure to tsunamis and coastal floods is less salient in international comparison (Figure 3.2, Panels B and C), these risks remain higher than the OECD average and poses significant challenges for coastal development, along with rising sea levels in the Bangkok area. Drought risks are also high in international comparison (Figure 3.2, Panel D), with a particular exposure of the agricultural sector in the Northern and Central regions.

Figure 3.2. River floods are the most significant risk

Note: INFORM is a risk index encompassing three dimensions: hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity. Index, scale from 0 (low risk) to 10 (high risk)

Source: INFORM Risk database, Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre from the European Commission.

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Since the 2011 floods, Thailand has invested heavily in water management systems. This includes adaptation measures to manage increased risks from climate change and mitigation approaches to lessen flood impact, as well as systematic plans for handling extreme water events. The Royal Irrigation Department has developed a multi-pronged plan to improve flood control in the Chao Phraya basin. This “Chao Phraya 9 Plans” programme includes water management investments with an estimated cost of about USD 10 billion; it is still in the process of securing funding and final approval. It will provide flood protection and increase the capacity to channel floods through the basin. The first part of the project includes the improvement of 23 channels and related hydraulic infrastructure over a length of 500 km. This is expected to double the drainage capacity from 210 to 400 cubic meters per second, while increasing water storage capacity for use during the dry season by 18 million cubic meters per year and protecting about 44 000 ha of land area. In 2025, the Cabinet unveiled an economic stimulus plan that included measures to improve water infrastructure. Along with such infrastructure projects, green development and nature-based solutions are also effective at preventing floods. In Greece, a pilot project by Global Infrastructure Basel and the WWF found that widening rivers and connecting them with their floodplains, creating riparian forests and removing man-made structures built to control or obstruct the flow of rivers, is often more efficient than relying on new or rehabilitated ‘grey’ infrastructure, such as dykes (Jurík et al., 2022[3]).

Thailand’s exposure to droughts is among the highest in Southeast Asia. This has significant economic implications, notably for rice farming. The 2015 and 2020 droughts were particularly severe, and addressing drought risks has been a priority for water management plans over the past decade. Nevertheless, the system has room for improvement. In particular, information remains fragmented across ministries and agencies, and damage assessments are undervalued (Shin, Lee and Lee, 2024[4]). Thailand would benefit from more proactive drought management policies that contain the economic and social consequences ex ante rather than mitigating them ex post. A comprehensive drought management framework requires early warning and monitoring systems, the assessment of drought vulnerabilities and the implementation of both preventive and reactive measures (World Bank, 2022[5]).

Rising sea levels are particularly problematic for the Bangkok area, which is on average only 1.5 m above sea level and is sinking under its own weight. With sea-levels rising by about 12 mm per year and the city sinking by 20 mm, the relative water level is rising by 32 mm in total per year. At this rate most of the city would be under sea level by the end of the century. The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration plans to build a barrier system, similar to London’s Thames Barrier, to stem the flows of seawater into the river. It also plans to elevate roads and install more coastal dykes to protect the city from rising sea levels. More efficient water drainage is also needed, and urban planning in the capital should protect and further develop the existing floodways. In the long run, climate-change considerations should prompt relocation decisions for firms and households in flood-risk areas. Rising insurance premiums in areas at risk can contribute to this, but coordinated policy incentives could also be considered, for example through targeted tax incentives to encourage the relocation of business districts.

Coastal erosion also affects Thailand’s beaches, which are a key asset for the tourism industry (15% of GDP in 2024). Water drainage from human activities, combined with artificial soils, often accelerates the depletion of beaches as the sand is washed away to the sea. Excessive building weight on fragile land can also exacerbate sand erosion and coastal submersion, while the use of coastal sand in construction can degrade coastlines. ‘Hard’ solutions such as breakwaters groins and seawalls can mitigate coastal erosion by retaining sediments and protect against storm surges. However, they do not work everywhere, have an impact on ecosystems and can even impede tourism. ‘Soft’ solutions include the planting of corals, mangroves and beach crest vegetation as well as beach nourishment which has been ongoing at Pattaya beach since 2017. There is scope for making greater use of these nature-based solutions, possibly in collaboration between private businesses, homeowners, and the government through tax incentives, subsidies, PPPs, cost-sharing arrangements or sustainability certifications. For example, investments in climate-resilient hotels and resorts can be matched by public spending on drainage systems and public utilities. Hotel owners can also contribute to local investment funds for seawall construction or mangrove restoration. Stricter planning rules and greater enforcement are also warranted, as human activity often exacerbates erosion pressures. Currently, buildings are banned within 10 metres of the shoreline, while height and density limits apply between 10 and 50 metres. Increasing the ban to 30 metres for new buildings as in other countries, and restrictions (such as forbidding hard structures) to 100 metres, may prove warranted.

3.2.2. Improving administrative capacity to identify risks and manage disasters

Efficient decisions for planning, infrastructure and private investments require detailed and publicly available information about the risk of climate-related hazards. A granular mapping of natural hazards – and how they will evolve over the coming decades – is critical in that regard. This information should feed into planning and infrastructure decisions, in particular for zoning laws and improving building codes. Thailand can develop a comprehensive understanding of its climate risks by assessing the severity and likelihood of each risk, understanding how disruptions can affect infrastructure and services, and identifying where dependencies and interdependencies at the subnational, national and international levels could amplify their impacts (OECD, 2024[6]). For instance, the 2011 floods have demonstrated the potential impact on manufacturing and the need to install factories outside of flood prone areas. In flood-prone areas, modelling flood stress tests can help in ensuring flood-proof planning. Another strategy is to acquire vacant floodplain land to prevent future development altogether. Often the cost of such acquisitions is lower than the cost of repairing damages from flooding (Hino et al., 2023[7]). The government should also commit to share climate-risk related hazards information with local governments and the private sector, in a timely and comparable way (OECD, 2024[8]). Along with public education and communication strategies to raise awareness about risks and solutions for the population, such information can help avoid building in areas most at risk. Improving understanding about future climate risks could include a greater use of machine learning for longer-term climate change modelling (Mansfield et al., 2020[9]).

Within government, a comprehensive fiscal risk management framework should also be established to identify, assess, and manage climate-related fiscal exposures, as is in place in a number of OECD countries. Good practices include (OECD, 2022[2]):

 Mapping existing and emerging climate-related physical risks: identifying potential for extreme weather events, their severity and frequency; identifying households, businesses or subnational governments potentially exposed; assessing their capacity to absorb the losses and damages through savings, borrowing or insurance coverage and any financial vulnerabilities that may emerge.

 Clearly distinguishing between explicit and implicit contingent liabilities, considering second-order effects, and preparing explicit ex ante cost-sharing arrangements, financial support and compensation.

 Estimating the potential fiscal impact, including explicit and implicit contingent liabilities and revenue effects, using available measurement methods (direct estimates, stress test and sensitivity analysis).

 Integrating climate risk into fiscal risks assessments through long-term fiscal sustainability analysis.

Thailand can also further develop a suite of policy tools that incentivises investments in resilient infrastructures. Such measures should address the entire infrastructure life cycle – from planning and operations to maintenance and renewal or retrofits. A variety of policy tools and mechanisms can also help to advance implementation of resilience objectives – from voluntary frameworks and incentive mechanisms to regulatory or legal tools. In particular, project appraisal tools can assess the present and future benefits and costs of resilience projects, such as the reinstatement of infrastructure after landslips. It is important to estimate costs associated with adaptations and renovations to accurately assess affordability of projects, which in turn ensures assets perform throughout their life. Thailand aims to estimate adaptation and renovation costs as part of infrastructure investment decisions. However, these assessments could be more systematic and more accurate, particularly in the face of increasing frequency and severity of climate-related risks (OECD, 2025[10]). Factors for these assessments could include the frequency of natural hazard events and the costs to people’s lives and businesses, or lack of access to essential services. For example, cost-benefit analysis can help decide whether a like-for-like replacement of an asset or an alternative solution is the best approach (OECD, 2024[6]). 

Climate-change adaptation also requires ensuring good emergency response systems. Thailand’s first legislated framework for a systematic response to disasters was the enactment of the Civil Threat Prevention Act in 1979. Since 2007, the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act (DPM Act 2007) has been the main framework for disaster risk management and disaster response (Box 3.1). Two decades after the 2004 tsunami, warning systems have significantly improved around the Indian Ocean, with a network of Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) detection buoys.

Scope remains for improving early warning systems (EWS) and response against other risks, notably flooding (Rukkiatwong and Rattanakhamfu, 2025[11]). Water management in Thailand is split between numerous agencies and ministries, with overlap and lack of coordination. Thailand’s warning system also lacks critical data on topography and land use, and in some areas the SMS alert system remains underdeveloped. Shortfalls in the latter became apparent during the earthquake in March 2025 and the need for improvement has been recognised. Japan is a successful example of decentralised yet coordinated decision making, data-driven city risks models, prevention, and effective alerts through multiple channels (loudspeakers, radio, SMS, etc.). In Thailand, Hat Yai city has built an effective cooperation between research centres and local governments (Rukkiatwong and Rattanakhamfu, 2025[11]). Improving planning in flood-prone areas and empowering local-area governors as emergency managers would also help.

Nature-based solutions can also play a role in building climate-change resilience. Since 2024, a partnership between the Thai Department of Water Resources, the German International Climate Initiative and different charities is targeting the Chiang Rai and Surat Thani provinces. The project aims to demonstrate the potential of nature-based solutions to enhance urban resilience and improve living standards. So far, it has highlighted the role of restoring rivers, riparian areas and wetlands, adapting planning, as well as green and blue retrofitting (IKI, 2025[12]). In collaboration with Australia, Thailand is implementing the Resilient Urban Centres and Surrounds project, which involves the government, private sector, academics, and experts in urban planning and management. Bangkok‘s On Nut Urban Forest Park is one example of using nature-based solutions in urban planning to design and develop a resilient city that can help reduce flooding and improve air and water quality. On Nut has been transformed from a waste dump into a forest park and wetlands that can be used by the community for recreation, economic activity and the environment.

Box 3.1. Thailand’s disaster management system

Under the DPM Act 2007, Thailand’s disaster management system includes the following:

• The National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Plan: outlines strategies for disaster risk reduction, emergency response, and recovery. It incorporates principles from the Sendai Framework (UN, 2015[13]).

• The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation: responsible for coordinating disaster management activities at the central level. It operates under the Ministry of Interior and works with various national, provincial, and district-level committees.

• A total of 18 Emergency Support Functions that provide support during emergencies, covering areas such as security, public relations, recovery, foreign affairs, and military resources.

• The National Emergency Operation Centre: activated during major emergencies, under the Ministry of Interior or the Prime Minister, depending on the severity of the situation.

• Promotion of international cooperation with ASEAN and other international bodies on disaster risk reduction and management capabilities. Additionally, a large network of charities, academic institutions, businesses and communities support the country’s disaster management capabilities.

Source: (CFE-DM, 2022[14])

Strengthening governance is also key to advancing climate adaptation objectives. Policies, regulatory tools, and public finance instruments can integrate climate considerations into long-term planning, policy development, regulations, budgeting, investment decisions and procurement. For all countries, achieving climate goals also depends on trust and transparency with stakeholders and citizens, while upholding integrity, developing public sector capabilities and balancing competing economic, fiscal and social pressures (OECD, 2025[15]). Thailand sets goals and targets in long-term infrastructure plans to invest in sustainability initiatives and support research and development on environmentally friendly infrastructure (OECD, 2025[16]). Also, while Thailand provides general guidance on Green Public Procurement, more efforts are needed to integrate climate objectives into public procurement of infrastructure. This could include specifying requirements for climate mitigation and adaptation in technical specifications, integrating climate objectives as part of the evaluation framework of bids, and setting requirements for awarded suppliers through contract clauses (OECD, 2025[16]). Improving coordination mechanisms and integrating cross-cutting priorities, such as net-zero targets, more systematically across ministries could help ensure more consistent policy implementation (OECD, 2025[17]). This requires clearer institutional leadership, better alignment of planning processes, and enhanced performance monitoring frameworks.

More broadly, public awareness of climate-change risks and exposure can be ramped up, notably through education. Policies can help to overcome cognitive biases that limit risk awareness by providing information and encourage limiting exposure. Informing firms and households of adaptation options can steer them towards adopting protective behaviour, such as limiting outdoor activities during heatwaves or preparing for floods. To improve the impact of these plans, a clear communication strategy may help to ensure that information reaches people in the most affected communities.

3.2.3. Using insurance markets for effective burden-sharing

Effective burden-sharing mechanisms would also help to shield the government from bearing all climate-related risks. Currently, the government sets aside funding to cover damages to public assets but does not insure through a third party (UNDP Thailand, 2023[18]). By contrast, crop insurance is an area where government support has helped to increase coverage: in 2021 it provided insurance for 72% of the total planted area and 3.4 million workers (UNDP Thailand, 2023[18]). Beyond crop insurance, life and non-life insurance that covers climate-related risks remains limited: in 2020, the insurance penetration rate of Thailand was 5.3%, much lower than the global average of 7.4%. In particular, the non-life insurance penetration in Thailand was 1.9% compared to the global average of 4.1% (UNDP Thailand, 2023[18]). Microinsurance and affordable insurance products for the poor and vulnerable groups represent less than 1% of the overall insurance policies (UNDP Thailand, 2023[18]). To expand coverage, the government should support the development of private insurance markets, for example by providing or subsidising re-insurance (OECD, 2012[19]). Promoting risk awareness and financial literacy among the public is important; better knowledge sharing about risks can help private insurance firms in setting appropriate premia.

Thailand should enhance its climate-change data management and analysis capabilities and leverage digital technology to bolster inclusive insurance and risk management. Timely data and effective analysis would enable better monitoring of risk impacts, including their frequency, severity, affected areas, potential victims, and estimated damages. Utilising data analytics and digital technology can streamline insurance processes. By adopting new parametric insurance models, satellite imaging, and drones, insurers can expedite payout approvals, leading to quicker recovery for disaster victims. Additionally, digital technology can help increase insurance penetration (UNDP Thailand, 2023[18]).

3.3. Adapting the economy to climate change

Adapting to climate change will also trigger changes in the allocation of resources across sectors, with implications for workers. Climate change will have a profound impact on agriculture and fisheries, for example, and it will also affect tourism and lead to the reallocation of resources across different manufacturing activities.

3.3.1. Making agriculture more resilient while reducing its emissions

Thailand’s agricultural sector is exposed to climate change events, such as droughts, heat waves, unpredictable rainfall patterns, storms, floods, and an increase in insect pests. Heat stress and droughts can reduce yields and affect crop quality, while excessive rainfall and soil erosion negatively impact crop growth and soil health. To cope with the impacts of climate change, the Agricultural Development Plan (2017-2036) provides systematic long-term guidance for adaptive measures, including alternative techniques, crop diversification, and water management strategies. For example, in the Chao Phraya River Basin, shifting crop calendar and changing rice varieties has led to an increase in crop yields of about 4% (Thampanishvong, Poapongsakorn and Adhikari, 2024[20]). Good adaptation practices generally include, inter alia, the following (Waqas et al., 2025[21]):

• Implementing integrated farming, crop rotation, and soil conservation techniques to improve soil health

• Using accurate and timely early warning systems to prepare for and respond to droughts effectively

• Developing on-farm small-scale water reservoirs and improve irrigation

• Using scientifically developed climate-resilient crop and livestock varieties

• Establishing local food reserves and seed banks to ensure availability during adverse conditions

These techniques can improve resilience while sustaining agricultural productivity and livelihoods. Yet, limited resources and knowledge gaps hinder the widespread adoption of such measures. Hence, targeted interventions (awareness campaigns, engagement with local communities, knowledge sharing) and policy support are crucial to further improve farmers' adaptive capacity and resilience against climate risks (Waqas et al., 2025[21]). Genome-edited and genetically modified seeds and plants that are more resistant to water scarcity and higher temperatures may prove useful to increase crop resilience in the future. While growing genetically modified organisms has long been banned in Thailand, genome-edited technologies were approved in mid-2024.

Adopting new plant varieties and farming best practices will also help reduce agricultural emissions of CO₂ and other GHG such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O), notably from rice cultivation. Chen et al. (2024[22]) provide a survey of existing research on the effect of various farming practices (water and fertiliser management, cultivar selection, planting methods, management of straw, etc.). Using the right mix of instruments can significantly reduce GHG emissions, while maintaining optimal rice yields. The effect of each of these techniques may vary from region to region within Thailand; an agile strategy, based on local circumstances and trial-and-error feedback is hence warranted.

Between 2018 and 2024, the Thai Rice NAMA project, a Thai-German public-private initiative, has helped farmers identify and implement such a shift to low-emission rice farming. The target group included 100 000 farm households in six selected provinces of the Central Plains. Under the project, the International Rice Research Institute provided technical assistance in quantifying the net GHG reduction and demonstrating the co-benefits of low-emission and sustainable rice farming (IRRI, 2024[23]). Such efforts to identify and implement best practices should be promoted further across other Thai provinces. As argued in the 2023 Survey (OECD, 2023[24]), boosting agricultural productivity through greater scale of production (Arunrat et al., 2021[25]) and diversification into higher-value crops (World Bank, 2022[26]) may also strengthen resilience to climate change as well as reduce emissions.

3.3.2. Adapting the fishing and aquaculture sectors

Fishing and aquaculture are also exposed to the effects of climate change (Lebel et al., 2022[27]). Climate-related risks to fish and shrimp farms include abrupt temperature changes, heat waves, cold spells, intense rainfall, floods, and droughts. Coastal and marine fisheries face risks from sea level rise, ocean warming and acidification, storms, and seasonal changes. Extreme events are more concerning for aquaculture, while fisheries are more affected by slow-onset and long-term shifts.

As with other climate-change risks, improving awareness and warning systems can help improve mitigation. Expanding monitoring networks for sea surface temperatures and inland water conditions, documenting impacts and recovery processes from past disasters, and sharing information and practices with fishermen are key elements of good policy (Lebel et al., 2022[27]). To reduce stressors and pressures on species, riverine plastic pollution should be further reduced (see below), while establishing nursery habitats for fisheries (mangroves, wetlands, corals and coastlines) and maintaining hatcheries for aquaculture. This might require a better adjustment of watershed and fishery zone management to better reflect the spatial and temporal scales of aquatic resources (Lebel et al., 2022[27]). Investing in genetic improvement programmes, domestication of new species, and controlled environment aquaculture systems can also play a role (Lebel et al., 2022[27]), though the impact on biodiversity could be ambiguous.

Overfishing and illegal catches remain an ongoing issue in Thailand, as in other countries. A wider use of risk-based methods in environmental and safety inspections could enhance the effectiveness of regulatory enforcement (OECD, 2025[28]). In 2022, Thailand rightly implemented a ban on the registration of new bottom trawlers, which have a strong impact on fish stocks and their ecosystems. Going forward, promoting sustainable fish and seafood labels on Thailand’s domestic and export markets may help drive better environmental and working practices among fishermen and fisheries.

3.3.3. Promoting sustainable tourism

Thailand’s authorities have been increasingly committed to sustainable tourism (Forbes Asia, 2023[29]). Many attractions now limit daily visitor numbers, and national parks are periodically closed to allow nature to recover. For example, Maya Bay, made famous by the Hollywood film The Beach, was closed for nearly four years due to overtourism, which had damaged coral reefs and the marine ecosystem. Since its reopening in 2022, tourist numbers have been capped at around 4 000 per day, and swimming in the bay is no longer permitted. Similarly, the Thi Lo Su Waterfall closes during the monsoon season from July to August so that the ecosystem can recover. To promote ecotourism, the Tourism Authority of Thailand has also introduced 20 low-carbon tourist routes across the country which aim to limit the use of electricity and fossil fuels for accommodation, transports, food and activities. Responsible and sustainable tourism practices are also being promoted, such as in Koh Mak, where visitors are encouraged to minimise their carbon footprint. Going forward, promoting sustainable and inclusive tourism requires systematic and coherent approaches (OECD, 2021[30]; OECD, 2024[31]) as developed in Costa Rica for instance (OECD, 2023[32]). Thailand should also take action to ensure that tourism does not exacerbate coastal erosion (see above); this likely requires strict planning and zoning regarding coastal hotels and resorts.

3.4. Meeting carbon neutrality and net-zero objectives

As in other countries, sustaining emission reductions to reach carbon neutrality and net-zero pledges remains a challenge for Thailand. The Long-term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), in line with the country’s second nationally determined contribution (NDC) published in 2022, aimed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065. However, the net-zero GHG target has been moved to 2050 in early November 2025, as part of Thailand’s updated NDC ahead of COP 30 (Figure 3.3).

Carbon emissions decreased between 2022 and 2024, but reaching neutrality requires strengthening mitigation policies, through a comprehensive mix of emission pricing, regulatory measures and green subsidies (D’Arcangelo et al., 2022[33]). Appropriate carbon prices that internalise the climate impacts of carbon emissions are a key instrument for directing resources towards low-emission uses; in particular a single carbon price equalises marginal abatement costs across sectors (D’Arcangelo et al., 2022[34]). In addition, environmental regulations can support price-based measures and reduce the usage of fossil fuels while reducing other forms of pollution. Strong coordination of governmental policies and instruments across ministries and agencies is essential. Some of the recommendations in the previous Survey have been implemented (Table 3.1), but others have not or are still in the process of being legislated.

Box 3.2. Thailand’s draft Climate Change Act

Thailand’s draft Climate Change Act aims to drive systematic and sustainable climate action across all sectors, from the establishment of emission reduction targets to the strengthening of national adaptation capacities, and the implementation of various supporting measures. The draft Act aligns with global trends including the introduction of carbon pricing mechanisms, both domestic and international carbon markets, and the consideration of a carbon tax for high-emission activities. These economic instruments are intended to create incentives for emissions reductions while ensuring legal enforcement mechanisms are effective, streamlined, and non-duplicative. Currently under Cabinet review, the legislation is expected to be enacted in 2026.

Figure 3.3. Thailand now aims for zero emissions by 2050

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, fourth national communication and Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy.

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While shifting the net-zero GHG emissions from 2065 to 2050 will likely entail additional policy measures, decisive progress has been made and is ongoing regarding pollution and carbon pricing. This includes tighter emission standards for vehicles and new air pollution limits for coal-fired power plants. A Clean Air Act, expected to be passed in late 2025 or early 2026, will introduce more stringent emissions regulations as well as low-emission zones with restrictions on fossil-fuel vehicles. Progress on carbon pricing has been steady but could accelerate, as the cap-and-trade system is expected to become mandatory only in 2029. The authorities are working with the European Union on a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as a complement to the ETS. Collaboration with the EU also covers green competitiveness, sustainable finance (including certification and reporting aspects), sustainable aviation fuels, and energy transition (including opening energy markets). A carbon tax of THB 200 per ton of CO₂ equivalent (around USD 6) has been introduced in 2025 for oil products – Thailand being the second ASEAN nation to introduce a carbon tax after Singapore –, with the aim of eventually extending it to other products and sectors. Yet, fuel subsidies have not been fully phased out (Figure 3.4), and the diesel price cap has been extended in 2025, though at a higher level than previously. Responsible business conduct, in line with the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises on Responsible Business Conduct, and sustainable finance have the potential to spur and accelerate private investment towards cleaner air and reduced emissions, and Thailand has room to leverage these tools more, for example through PPPs and public procurement, and by incentivising SOEs to use sustainability risk-based assessments (OECD, 2024[35]).

Table 3.1. Past OECD recommendations on environmental regulations

Recommendations in past Surveys	Actions taken since the previous Survey (December 2023)
Make environmental regulations more stringent, including air pollution limits from coal power and combustion engine cars.	Emission standards for combustion engine motorcycles were updated in 2023. The Euro V standard has applied to diesel-fuelled cars since 2024, and the Euro VI standard has applied to petrol-fuelled ones since early 2025 (except for commercial vehicles, where it is delayed until 2032). New air pollution limits for coal-fired power plants have been enforced since 2023 to restrict sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and dust release. The Draft Clean Air Management Act is expected to be passed by the end of 2025 or early 2026 and will introduces more stringent emissions regulations as well as low-emission zones with restrictions on fossil-fuel vehicles.
Introduce carbon pricing consisting of a mandatory cap-and-trade system for key sectors and a complementary carbon tax for the remaining sectors, consistent with the planned net-zero trajectory.	Thailand’s carbon exchange is currently voluntary; a mandatory market (TH ETS) is expected to be effective in 2029. A carbon price is effective on oil products since early 2025, at THB 200 per ton of CO₂ equivalent (USD 6).
Allow retail fossil fuel prices to fluctuate more freely, while gradually phasing out the price cap on diesel.	The THB 33 diesel price cap was set to expire in late 2024 but has been extended, and lowered to THB 32.

Figure 3.4. Thailand’s energy subsidies mainly comprise subsidy to electrical energy

Source: FossilFuelSubsidyTracker.org.

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3.4.1. Decarbonising electricity generation

The power sector is currently the largest greenhouse gas emitter in Thailand, and clean electricity generation will become even more crucial as the electrification of transports and industrial processes progresses. As argued in the previous Survey (OECD, 2023[24]), phasing-out coal and accelerating the deployment of renewables is a priority. Some progress is being made in this direction (Table 3.2), but the planned deployment of wind and solar electricity generation may prove insufficient, with an increased need for coal- and gas-fired electricity as a result. Estimates suggest that an additional 32 GW of renewable electricity capacity is necessary and feasible to reach Thailand’s 2030 emission targets (IEA, 2023[36]). This would also require an expansion of the grid’s capacity and flexibility, as well as more effective electricity demand management through price incentives. Accelerating the deployment of small-scale projects will also require monitoring the uptake of the ongoing feed-in-tariff (FiT) scheme, supporting green loans and securitisation models, streamlining licensing and permitting and building expertise among contractors and technicians (OECD, 2024[37]).

In Thailand electricity prices are mid-ranking compared with other ASEAN countries (Figure 3.5). The electricity price is a key factor for energy affordability for households, and also for attracting digital infrastructure and encouraging the electrification of industrial processes. Currently, 4% of user tariffs are used to finance the expansion of renewables, while state-owned EGAT must also recoup some of the deficit it incurred when subsidising households during the inflationary crisis of 2022. These investments need to be financed and it seems difficult to remove these costs from the customers, unless the government provides direct fiscal support. However, there are other avenues for making electricity more affordable. Promoting competition in electricity markets, easing the deployment of investment projects and ensuring the cost-effectiveness of clean energy and energy saving incentives can reduce electricity bills in a sustainable way. Moreover, the current levels of capacity margins requirements could be reconsidered. At present a gap of 36% between capacity and peak demand is maintained. This is similar to ASEAN peers but far above other regions in the world (Chongphipatmongkol and Audomvongseree, 2018[38]). While capacity margins contribute to energy security, they also add to costs. Targeted transfers for low-income users can be a more effective way to ensure electricity and energy affordability.

Table 3.2. Past OECD recommendations on cleaner electricity generation

Recommendations in past Surveys	Actions taken since the previous Survey (December 2023)
Promote the use of renewable energy sources in large-scale producers through public tenders and renewable energy certificates.	The share of renewables in electricity production is set to increase from 26% in 2025 to 50% in 2037, while fossil declines from 60% today to 41% in 2037. These targets may become more ambitious to accommodate the recently announced net zero target of 2050 for GHG emissions (instead of 2065). Tax incentives for solar rooftops and energy efficiency are being considered. In January 2025, the Energy Regulatory Commission launched the Utility Green Tariff service for non-specific electricity sources (UGT1) allowing the private sector to use renewable energy. Furthermore, the Proclamation of Certifications Standard for Green Electricity Provision was launched for public hearing in March 2025.
Reduce private entry restrictions in the retail electricity market, including by allowing peer-to-peer trade.	As of 2025, the Energy Regulatory Commission is formulating the criteria and guidelines for the regulation and supervision of third-party access to the electricity network, as well as the service charges, in accordance with the Direct Power Purchase Agreement (Direct PPA) policy.

Figure 3.5. Electricity prices are mid-ranking compared with ASEAN peers

Source: Energy Regulatory Commission (2024).

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Improving heat insulation and air conditioning, in homes and in the workplace, will also be crucial. By 2050, the cost of indoor cooling could range between USD 11 billion and USD 17 billion annually (World Bank, 2024[1]). Passive heat insulation and performance standards for air conditioning can significantly reduce energy needs. Under the 2021 Building Energy Code (effective since 2023), high energy efficiency regulations through energy-efficient insulation, lighting, air conditioning, and hot water supply are applied to newly constructed buildings (such as hotels and offices) with an area larger than 2 000 m². While construction costs are expected to increase by 5% as a result, energy savings of at least 10% are expected to offset these costs over 42 months. Such regulations should eventually be extended to factories, and for existing homes the performance standards of new air conditioning units should gradually be raised. Alongside energy needs, the climate impact of air conditioning is also driven by leakages of refrigerant (CFC, HCFC and HFC gases) whose global warming potential is considerable. Preventing such leakages is important, until the use of HFO refrigerants – with reduced global warming potential – becomes more widespread. Better regulating the disposal of older air conditioning units can help in that respect (Thepsaskul et al., 2023[39]).

3.4.2. Reducing transport emissions

Decarbonising transports remains key to meet net zero objectives and reduce air pollution. After a delay during the COVID-19 pandemic, tighter emission standards have been introduced for new cars in 2024 and 2025, and tax incentives apply to electric vehicles and charging stations (Table 3.3). Introducing the Euro VI standard for diesel-fuelled cars and increasing incentives for electric vehicles should eventually be considered. In addition, accelerating the decommissioning of energy-inefficient vehicles could be considered as highlighted in the 2023 Survey. Higher gasoline taxes can incentivise a shift towards cleaner alternatives; incentives based on the ownership of energy-inefficient cars can act as a useful complement. While policy efforts have so far focused on a reduced annual vehicle tax for electric vehicles and hybrid cars, increasing the tax on old energy-inefficient cars should eventually be considered. Finally, increasing the availability of public transport and introducing congestion charges in city centres are good complementary measures to accelerate the reduction of emissions and pollution while improving urban living standards.

Table 3.3. Past OECD recommendations on making road transports cleaner

Recommendations in past Surveys	Actions taken since the previous Survey (December 2023)
Introduce compulsory fuel economy requirements on newly sold cars.	The Euro V standard was introduced for diesel-fuelled vehicles in 2024, while the Euro VI standard applies to petrol-fuelled vehicles since early 2025. Implementation of Euro VI for commercial vehicles is delayed to 2032.
Consider raising the annual vehicle tax for old-aged cars to accelerate the de-registration of energy-inefficient vehicles.	A temporary 80% reduction in the annual tax applies to newly registered EVs. An excise tax reduction for hybrid and mild hybrid electric vehicles has been introduced and will be effective during the period 2026 – 2032.
Frontload the current phase-out plan for gasoline with low biofuel blending.	The Oil Plan 2024 aims to streamline gasoline categories, by selecting either unleaded 95 or the E20 ethanol-fuel mix as the country's standard fuel. The sale of Gasohol 91 and 95 is scheduled to be phased-out by 2027.
Consider introducing a revenue-neutral rebate system to reward purchasers of low- or zero-emission vehicles, financed by levies on high-emission vehicle purchases. Provide incentives for investing into charging stations across the whole country.	Tax incentives have been introduced for large and smaller charging stations.

3.5. Reducing pollution and improving recycling

Reducing and recycling waste also holds potential to reduce emissions (OECD, 2019[40]) and achieve other environmental goals. In Thailand, about 10 000 tons of plastic waste are discharged into the marine environment each year (World Bank, 2022[41]). Recycling these plastics could generate additional savings of up to USD 4 billion annually (IFC, 2024[42]). Thailand has made progress in municipal solid waste management over the past years, as local authorities must now support households in disposing waste at source and implement plastic waste sorting or pre-disposal waste separation. Central budget support is provided to local authorities for cluster-based solid waste management. Recycling is also a central part of the country’s Bio-Circular-Green model (Kumagai, 2022[43]).

Thailand is taking steps towards an extended producer responsibility (EPR) framework and improvements in waste separation. A draft EPR law is currently under consideration and the Ministry of Interior is providing improved guidelines and support to local governments for organising source separation (Table 3.4). Implementation, which has so far remained uneven and limited (Vassanadumrongdee and Manomaivibool, 2022[44]), should improve as a result, yet further support may be required. Innovative finance (such as green and blue bonds), multilateral support and help from charities can also be leveraged further: for instance, the IFC finances projects that prevent marine pollution and preserve clean water resources in Bangkok and in the Philippines (IFC, 2024[42]).

Table 3.4. Past OECD recommendations on improving waste management

Recommendations in past Surveys	Actions taken since the previous Survey (December 2023)
Introduce an extended producer responsibility (EPR) framework for plastic package, waste electric equipment and motor vehicles.	Draft legislation on the management of electric, electronic and other products, which adheres to EPR principles, was opened for public hearings in early 2024, and is currently being prepared consideration by the cabinet.
Encourage local governments to require and enforce waste separation at the source, while providing financial support and capacity building.	The Ministry of Interior’s Solid Waste Management Notifications (2024) improve the criteria, methods, and standards for solid waste management. Notably, local authorities must support households in disposing waste at the source and implement plastic waste sorting or pre-disposal waste separation. Guidelines for supporting local administrative organisations in implementing waste separation are outlined in the National Waste Management Action Plan (No. 2) (2022 - 2027). For example, the Plan provides budget support to local administrative organisations for cluster-based solid waste management.

3.6. Protecting forests

Thailand’s forests contribute significantly to the absorption of GHG emissions and limit heat and floods. In 1989, after decades of rapid deforestation, Thailand was one of the first countries to ban logging in natural forests. Since then, the country has seen slower deforestation than the rest of Southeast Asia, but reversing past declines remains a challenge. As of 2020, 33% of land cover in Thailand was natural forests and 3.8% was non-natural tree cover, and the country aims to increase the total cover to 40% by 2036 under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment’s 20-Year Strategic Plan. This aligns with the goal of absorbing 120 metric tons of CO₂ equivalent by 2037. To meet this target, Thailand aims to promote reforestation, increase green space in both urban and rural areas, and prevent forest encroachment and forest burning. Preventing deforestation increasingly relies on advanced monitoring technologies. These detect forest change and fire hotspots to prevent forest encroachment and forest fires in high-risk areas.

To promote private sector participation in forest plantation, Thailand’s Voluntary Emission Reduction Program (T-VER) provides a voluntary market for carbon offsets. Private entities will be able to sell and buy carbon credits from afforested and reforested areas, restored mangrove habitats and sustainable forestation projects. Careful certification, however, is required to avoid fraud, ensure that such projects remain fully sustainable, and preserve the interests of local communities. Besides the prevention of human-led deforestation through an expansion of agriculture and illegal logging, there is also a case for maintaining a strong involvement of communities to monitor forests, for example through brush clearing. The Community Forest Act B.E. 2562 was adopted to empower local communities living in approximately 14 000 community forest areas to work with the government to manage and utilise natural resources in a sustainable way. Adapting the right forest species may also help to increase the CO₂ absorption of forests, and/or their resilience to droughts, yet it is also important to consider other integral environmental and social benefits that forests provide, including biodiversity.

Table 3.5. Main findings and policy recommendations

MAIN FINDINGS	RECOMMENDATIONS (Key recommendations in bold)
Improving disaster management and addressing flood and drought risks
Awareness of climate change and the potential implications and solutions is limited in some segments of the population.	Further develop public education and communication strategies to raise awareness on climate change risks and solutions.
Early warning and disaster management systems have been significantly improved but a more comprehensive and proactive approach is needed.	Strengthen disaster preparedness by improving warning systems and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure.
Parts of the country, notably around Bangkok, are particularly exposed to flood risks. Human activity can exacerbate coastal erosion, notably through water drainage, excessive weight on land and artificialised shorelines.	Enhance zoning regulations and building codes to reduce exposure of structures to disasters. Consider tightening building restrictions on shorelines.
Insurance coverage for damages from extreme weather events remains low.	Develop private insurance markets for extreme weather events and consider government support, for example through re-insurance and digital technologies.
Climate change and climate disasters will increase fiscal risks and require an integrated risk management framework.	Establish a comprehensive fiscal risk management framework to identify, assess, and manage climate- and disaster-related fiscal exposures.
Coastal erosion poses a significant risk for beaches and the tourism sector.	Promote soft solutions and other nature-based approaches against coastal erosion (mangroves, corals, beach crest vegetation, etc.), possibly through local funds with contributions from hotels and resorts.
Adapting the economy to climate change
Thailand’s Agricultural Development Plan (2017-2036) aims to identify and disseminate farming best practices, to increase crop yields and climate resilience while reducing GHG emissions. More effort is needed for systematic evaluation and knowledge dissemination among farmers.	Continue identifying farming best practices (water and fertiliser management, cultivar selection, etc.) to increase resilience and reduce GHG emissions. Promote knowledge sharing and incentivise adaptation among farmers.
Good on-farm practices can help to optimise water usage and preserve soils Communities and local authorities can be leveraged to spread best practices and promote resource sharing in the face of adverse shocks.	Implement crop rotation, and soil conservation techniques, while developing small-scale water reservoirs and improving irrigation. Engage with local communities to align farming practices, promote knowledge sharing, and maintain local food reserves and seed banks.
New plant varieties may prove more resistant to droughts while increasing yields. The cultivation of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has been banned since 2021, but gene-edited (Ged) plants have recently been allowed.	Consider a relaxation of regulations on heat-resistant GMOs and Ged.
Thailand’s fish habitats are at risk due to climate change but nature-based approaches can offer solutions.	Preserve and restore fish habitats (mangroves, etc). Ensure that fishery zone management reflects the spatial and temporal scales of aquatic resources. Consider selecting heat and disease resistant fish species for aquaculture.
Overfishing and depleting fish stocks remains an ongoing challenge for Thailand, while working conditions remain poor in the industry.	Continue to tackle overfishing and ensure a fair sharing of catches between small fishermen and larger companies. Promote sustainable fishing standards on Thailand’s domestic and export market for fish and seafood products.
Reducing GHG emissions
The electricity mix is largely made of natural gas, though coal-fired power plants are still being deployed. Renewables represent a growing share.	Accelerate the phase-out of power generation from coal and the deployment of renewable energy sources.
Electricity prices are relatively high, but comparable to ASEAN peers; 4% of the customers’ electricity tariff is allocated to the deployment of renewables, but capacity margins may be too high.	Ensure that electricity affordability does not hinder the deployment of clean energy, by improving competition, reviewing capacity margin requirements and streamlining investment projects.
Starting in 2025, oil products are subject to a carbon tax set at THB 200 (USD 6) per ton of CO₂ equivalent. Some fuel subsidies remain on diesel.	Extend carbon pricing and phase out fuel subsidies
Cooling will require significant investments and energy as temperatures increase. The Building Energy Code enforces high insulation and energy performance standards for larger buildings (above 2 000 sqm) but smaller ones have so far been exempted.	Insulation and energy standards should eventually be extended to factories, and for existing homes the performance standards of new air conditioning units should gradually be raised.
Protecting forests
Forests play an essential role in absorbing CO2 emissions and heat, but the risk of fires will increase as droughts become more frequent.	Implement a comprehensive strategy to tackle illegal deforestation, monitor and respond to fires via early warning systems, promote reforestation and adapt forest species when warranted, for increased drought and fire resilience.
The market for forestry carbon offsets may incentivise private investors to participate further in conservation and reforesting efforts.	Ensure prudent certification to avoid fraud and ensure that offsets projects remain fully sustainable, and preserve the interests of local communities.

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