OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1

Netherlands

GDP is set to grow by 1.3% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, driven by strengthening private consumption on the back of rising disposable household income, and government investment. Private investment will also improve, supported by gradually declining interest rates, but will be dampened by global uncertainty. However, external demand will weaken due to higher tariffs and trade uncertainty. Annual headline inflation is set to fall only slowly to 2.9% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, as service price pressures persist. Unemployment will increase marginally from 3.7% in 2024 to 4% in 2026, as the bankruptcy rate rises to pre-pandemic levels.

The fiscal stance will be expansionary over 2025-26 due to higher spending on health care, housing and defence, as well as cuts in personal, corporate and environmental taxes. In the short term, fiscal measures are projected to support economic growth but worsen the fiscal balance, with the government deficit projected to widen from 0.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.8% in 2026. The government should prioritise investments supporting the green transition and productivity, including enhancing digital skills and increasing the adoption of digital technologies.

The economy remains resilient

In the first quarter of 2025, GDP growth slowed to 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Weaker household spending and fixed asset investment weighed on the economy, partly offset by higher public consumption and a smaller reduction in inventories. Headline inflation picked up to 4.1% in April, from 3.4% in the previous quarter, reflecting higher food and service prices. Annual wage growth under collective labour agreements moderated, falling to 5.5% from 6.6% the quarter before. The labour market remained tight, with job vacancies continuing to outnumber unemployed persons, and the unemployment rate stable at 3.8% in April. Consumer confidence continued to decline between January and April. Business sentiment also remained below its long-term average, declining again in April after a modest rebound earlier in 2025.

Netherlands

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 117 database; and Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

Statlink

Netherlands: Demand, output and prices

Statlink

As a trade-dependent economy, the Netherlands is exposed to global trade developments. About 5.7% of goods exports are destined for the United States. However, the most important exports include semiconductor machines and pharmaceuticals, which have so far been exempt from the increase in US import tariffs on EU goods. Indirectly, both through its strong integration in global value chains and as a logistic hub for EU trade, the Dutch economy will be affected via the slowdown in global trade.

Fiscal policy is expansionary

The fiscal stance will be expansionary over 2025-26, with fiscal easing projected to be around 1.4% of potential GDP, supporting short-term economic growth but worsening the government’s fiscal balance. The budget deficit is projected to widen from 0.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.8% in 2026, in line with government plans for higher spending on health care, housing and defence. These spending increases are partially offset by spending cuts in education, public services and development aid. In 2026, the transfer of military pensions to the Dutch civil service pension fund (ABP) will weigh additionally on the fiscal balance. The government support of low- and middle-income household purchasing power through the introduction of a new reduced tax bracket in income taxation took effect at the beginning of 2025 and will reduce revenues over the projection period. Overall, the debt ratio is expected to rise from the historically low level of 43.3% of GDP in 2024 to 46.8% in 2026.

Growth will pick up but risks abound

GDP is set to grow moderately by 1.3% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 supported by resilient domestic demand amid persistent global headwinds. Private consumption will be a key driver, buttressed by a boost in real income as wages continue growing above inflation, though weak consumer confidence may temper the pace of recovery. Investment will recover, supported by gradually declining interest rates and public spending, though uncertainty, tight financial conditions and supply constraints could weigh on the momentum. External demand is expected to remain subdued, reflecting ongoing trade fragmentation, tariff uncertainty and weakening global growth. Annual headline inflation is set to fall only slowly to 2.9% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, and core inflation is expected to remain sticky slowing to 2.6% in 2026, with rising labour costs continuing to exert upward pressure on services prices. Bankruptcy rates will rise, but lead only to a marginal increase in unemployment from 3.7% in 2024 to 4% in 2026, as the labour market remains tight. The economic outlook is surrounded by significant downside risks, primarily related to rising geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation. Domestically, labour market tightness remains a key concern. Continued wage growth could maintain price pressures, especially if euro area policy rates are lowered while inflation remains elevated in the Netherlands. While this could erode price competitiveness, weaken purchasing power, and slow private consumption, it could also help to alleviate labour market tightness. Furthermore, trade diversion could lead to lower import prices thereby creating downward pressure on inflation.

Enhancing tax efficiency would support growth

The Netherlands’ strong fiscal position provides room for a moderately expansionary stance, though rising population ageing and significant investment needs for the green transition will test medium‑term fiscal sustainability. To increase the share of renewables in the energy mix, the government needs to support investment in the electricity grid. Long-standing structural challenges also need to be addressed, focussing on easing labour market pressures and supporting productivity growth. Simplifying the tax and benefits system and removing distortions favouring owner-occupied housing could increase productivity-enhancing investment and ease tensions in the labour market. Enhancing digital skills and increasing the adoption of digital technologies particularly among smaller enterprises could further boost productivity growth and maintain competitiveness.