The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon. It builds a novel micro-to-macro framework by combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates, relying on a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages to aggregate the effects. Its main estimates for annual aggregate total-factor productivity growth due to AI range between 0.25-0.6 percentage points (0.4-0.9 pp. for labour productivity). The paper discusses the role of various channels in shaping these macro-level gains and highlights several policy levers to support AI's growth-enhancing effects.
