The OECD SPHeP-NCDs model is an advanced systems modelling tool for public health policy and strategic planning. The model is used to predict the health and economic outcomes of the population of a country or a region up to 2050. The model reproduces a comprehensive set of key behavioural and physiological risk factors and their associated non-communicable diseases, including mental ill-health. For these analyses, the model covers 30 EU/EFTA countries, including all the EU27 Member States as well as Iceland, Norway and Switzerland.
For each modeled country, the model uses demographic and risk factor characteristics by age and gender-specific population groups from international databases. These inputs are used to generate synthetic populations, in which each individual is assigned a profile with a certain risk of developing a disease each year. Incidence and prevalence of diseases in a specific country’s population are calibrated to match estimates from international datasets.
The model produces yearly cross-sectional representations of the population that can be used to calculate health status indicators such as life expectancy, premature deaths (including as a result of suicide), disease prevalence and disability-adjusted life years using disability weights. Healthcare costs of disease treatment are estimated based on a per-case annual cost, which is extrapolated from national health-related expenditure data. Treatment cost for anxiety and depressive disorders vary by severity level. For instance, cost of depressive disorders of moderate severity are 5 times greater than that of mild severity, while cost of severe severity are 20 times higher than that of mild severity, based on König et al. (2023[2]).The additional cost of multi-morbidity, which is an important factor in the case of mental disorders, and the extra cost of end-of-life care are also considered. The labour market module uses relative risks relating disease status with absenteeism, presenteeism (where sick individuals, even if physically present at work, are not fully productive), early retirement and employment. These changes in employment and productivity are estimated in number of full-time equivalent workers and with other parameters contribute to calculate the impact on gross domestic product, by applying a Cobb-Douglas production function.
The model includes three leading mental health diseases: major depressive disorders (MDD) (including three different levels of severity: mild, moderate and severe); generalised anxiety disorders (GAD) and alcohol use disorders. Although these mental disorders represent over 72% of the total prevalence of mental health conditions across the EU27 and EEA countries, the model’s results should be viewed as conservative since 28% of conditions remain excluded. In addition, the model does not capture the burden suffered by the persons exposed to individuals with mental disorders, such as family and friends.
Mental health disorders are modelled via specific modules created for each disease. For Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD), each individual in the model is assigned a score on two international scales used for diagnosing the disease (i.e. PHQ‑8 and GAD‑7 scales, respectively). Distribution of both scores are modelled using micro-level data with a zero‑inflated beta regression using parameters age, sex, and country to model PHQ, and age, sex and PHQ to model GAD. The regression is performed in two steps where a logistic regression is used to predict the probability of zero and a beta regression is used to model the final score, taking into account the zero probability and scaling the score to between 0 and 1 to fit the distribution. Various models were tested to reproduce as closely as possible the observed PHQ (patient health questionnaire) and GAD score distributions, with the zero‑inflated beta producing the best results. To compute individual scores distributions are inverted using the partially fixed quantile approach (one part is fixed throughout the individual’s life while the remaining part is recalculated every two years). The approach has the dual advantage of maintaining continuity in trajectory over time and creating individuals more likely to experience recurrent relapses throughout their lifetime. Based on the score, each individual has a probability of developing MDD and GAD, with higher scores indicating a greater risk of mental disorder. The nineth question of the PHQ‑9 score is modelled separately. The probability of having suicidal thoughts – any yes response to question nine on suicidal thoughts (from occasionally to almost every day) – was estimated based on microlevel data and modelled as a function of PHQ‑8 score. When question 9 is present, individuals are at higher risk of self-harm. Alcohol use disorders, on the other hand, depend on the pattern and volume of alcohol consumption, with higher consumption corresponding to a higher risk of developing the condition. All modules are calibrated to match prevalence data for the simulated diseases.
For more information on the OECD SPHeP-NCDs model, see the SPHeP-NCDs Technical Documentation, available at: http://oecdpublichealthexplorer.org/ncd-doc.