With new NDC commitments being actioned over the next five years, critical policy and investment choices will be essential to accelerating progress towards both the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This chapter explores how countries can integrate climate action with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), based on a modelling analysis relying on the International Futures modelling system. Building on the Enhanced NDCs scenario, the SDG Push 3.0 scenario implements targeted investments in governance, social protection, energy equity, and digital infrastructure to simultaneously address climate objectives and development challenges. Results show that aligning climate and SDG investments could reduce global poverty rates by 14% by 2035 relative to standalone climate action, lifting millions out of extreme poverty and malnutrition, alongside progress on a range of SDGs. The analysis underscores how integrated climate and development strategies can simultaneously fulfil countries’ emissions reductions and development objectives.
Investing in Climate for Growth and Development
Abstract
The world is currently facing the dual challenges of unsustainable climate trajectories and persistent poverty and inequality. While no country has achieved very high human development without placing immense strain on the planet (UNDP, 2020[1]), over 700 million people worldwide still face extreme poverty (UNDP, 2024[2]), of which three-quarters are in Sub-Saharan Africa and in fragile, conflict-affected countries. Increasing numbers of displaced persons face worsening poverty due to loss of assets, lack of employment and exclusion from formal economic systems. In addition, poverty fuels instability and can lead to conflicts, creating more persistent poverty and leading to a vicious cycle.
The implementation of the Paris Agreement is essential for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but it also poses additional challenges to countries working towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. With new NDC commitments being actioned over the next five years, critical policy and investment choices will be essential to accelerating progress towards both the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda. Meeting environmental, economic and social goals simultaneously will not be easy nor is it projected to happen under current policies.
This chapter presents a modelling analysis that illustrates how the climate transition can be implemented in a way that is compatible with development goals, including improvements in governance, social protection, digital infrastructure and energy equity. The aim of this modelling analysis is to show that when aligning investments in the energy transition, 9 out of 10 low-human development countries could make significant strides towards improving their current development outcomes by 2050 and 175 million additional people could simultaneously be lifted from extreme poverty compared to a baseline scenario. Compatibly with the Enhanced NDCs scenario presented in Chapter 2, this chapter presents an additional scenario which, in comparison with policy action that is only focused on climate, combines climate objectives and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The scenario is designed on the assumption that high emitting countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) will scale up their action substantially in the coming years, while less developed countries will see their per capita energy consumption increase in the coming years and scale up policy action on climate change mitigation later in the century.1 The analysis highlights key trade‑offs, synergies and the transformative potential of high‑ambition NDCs) in driving sustainable development through mid-century.
The analysis is based on the UNDP’s SDG Push 3.0 framework and the International Futures (IFs) large‑scale, long-term, integrated global modelling system (Hughes and Hillebrand, 2015[3]) from the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures (Box 3.1 and Annex A). The IFs model is distinct in its ability to integrate multiple systems – demographics, economics, energy, agriculture, environment and health – allowing for a long-term, cross-sectoral analysis of policy trade-offs and synergies. Unlike models that focus primarily on short-term energy and emissions trends, IFs provide a comprehensive, forward‑looking perspective, illustrating how climate and development investments interact over time and across regions.
The International Futures (IFs) model is a comprehensive tool for exploring long-term development trends across economics, demographics, energy, and governance. Its integrated structure captures feedback loops, providing a holistic view of policy trade-offs. Transparent and well-documented, it covers 186 countries and 500+ variables, enabling scenario-based analysis at global and national levels. Widely used by several organisations like the UNDP, UN Women and the World Bank, IFs supports policy planning and strategic foresight. Its flexibility allows users to integrate country‑specific data, making it a valuable tool for assessing future trajectories under different policies. As such, it has been used to provide policy advice on a range of topics (Abidoye et al., 2021[4]; Hanna et al., 2024[5]; Abu et al., 2024[6]; Moyer, 2023[7]; UNICEF, 2024[8]; Moyer et al., 2018[9]; UNDP, 2023[10]).
The major components of the (IFs) modelling system are extensively documented in working papers and the documentation of any given component is updated at regular intervals to reflect additions, refinements and connections to other system components. The SDG Push developed with the UNDP is one such advancement and refinement.
The IFs model is historically validated and calibrated, often by running simulations from 1995 to 2015 to assess its performance across key indicators at global, regional and country levels. At the global level, the model demonstrates strong validation, with deviations in GDP and population projections over 20 years typically within 10% of measured data. However, historical biases emerge in certain regions, particularly in large economies such as China, India and the United States, and in countries with small populations or high conflict propensity. These limitations suggest that long-term forecasts should not be interpreted as precise predictions, but rather as indicative projections characterised by significant uncertainty.
Like many integrated assessment models, the uncertainty evolves around data which may impact the accuracy of projections. Additionally, certain crucial key dynamic forces, such as technological advancements, may also exhibit uncertainties that can affect the reliability of long-term projections.
The IFs model has been widely applied to analyse and project long-term global trends. For example, in the Africa’s Path to 2063: Choice in the Face of Great Transformation report, the IFs model was used to assess the impact of demographics, human development, inequality, technological diffusion and environmental changes on Africa’s development within the framework of Agenda 2063. The UNDP collaborated with the Pardee Center to model the impact of COVID-19 on SDG progress and to explore strategies for recovery and accelerated development, as well as the development benefits of universal electricity access. More recently, in partnership with UNICEF, the IFs model was used to examine how technological shifts, climate change and geopolitics could shape the future for the next generation, featured in UNICEF’s Global Outlook 2024 report. The IFs model was also used to examine the viability and implications of achieving targets of SDG 6 in Ghana and to project the number of people in poverty due to intrastate conflict.
Source: (Hughes and Hillebrand, 2015[3]).
The analysis compares two distinct pathways to assess the short-to-medium-term (2030, 2035) and long‑term (2050) impacts of integrated investment strategies, highlighting their advantages over siloed approaches and their potential to inform the next round of NDCs. Recognising the critical role of energy systems in climate mitigation and adaptation, the analysis contrasts the impact of climate action along with the added benefits of integrating climate and SDG investments, highlighting the greater gains achievable through a combined approach. The two scenarios analysed are:
The Equitable, Low-Carbon Pathways scenario corresponds to the Enhanced NDCs scenario presented in Chapter 2, with effort to increase equity in the low-carbon transition. The scenario envisions a world guided by equity and the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. In this scenario, technology advancements over the next 15–30 years drive developed countries to prioritise energy efficiency, reducing overall demand and creating space for developing countries to meet rising energy needs through renewable energy sources. By the end of the century, per capita energy demand converges across high- and low-income countries.
The SDG Push 3.0 scenario adds considerable effort to meet the SDGs, in addition to the climate action outlined in the Enhanced NDCs scenario. This scenario aims to answer the question: what if higher climate ambition and more equitable energy systems were combined with targeted SDG investments? The second scenario, SDG Push 3.0, builds on the foundation of the Equitable Low‑Carbon Pathways scenario and the UNDP's flagship SDG Push. Initially conceptualised in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the SDG Push framework identified governance, social protection, green economy and digital innovation as key pillars to accelerate progress toward the SDGs. The SDG Push 3.0 extends this vision by integrating equitable, low‑carbon pathways aligned with the 1.5°C target, ensuring that the benefits and burdens of climate action are fairly shared among geographies.
Under the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, transformative shifts unfold across multiple dimensions (see Annex A for scenario parameters). By integrating an ambitious yet feasible set of climate and development investments, the SDG Push 3.0 scenario outperforms climate action alone, driving stronger and more inclusive outcomes. Key goals include:
Dietary transitions toward plant-based diets, reducing the environmental impact of meat production while promoting health.
Agricultural improvements that enhance yields, reduce food loss and waste and strengthen food security to meet the needs of a growing population.
Improved calorie distribution, supported by policies such as cash transfers or food subsidies, addresses food insecurity among vulnerable groups.
Increased social spending prioritises investments in infrastructure, education, health (emphasising family planning), and research and development, reflecting a long-term commitment to human development.
Expanded access to basic services – clean water, sanitation, electricity and modern cooking technologies – further enhances quality of life and reduces health risks.
Governance reforms to enhance spending efficiency and strengthen democratic institutions, creating a more accountable and effective governance framework.
3.2.1. A scenario to pave the way to meet the SDGs
Collective action to "leave no one behind" while respecting the planet's natural boundaries can pave the way for a sustainable development future for generations to come. The SDG Push 3.0 scenario reflects this goal, emphasising a multidimensional policy approach aimed at advancing human development while investing in more equitable energy systems. This scenario demonstrates significantly better outcomes in key areas such as health, education, poverty reduction and hunger compared to the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways alone. By integrating the full range of elements described in Section 3.1, the SDG Push 3.0 scenario demonstrates how NDCs 3.0 can simultaneously achieve climate targets and exceed pre-COVID development trajectories, driving meaningful progress across social, economic, and environmental dimensions (Figure 3.1).
Change in the SDG Push 3.0 scenario with respect to the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario, 2050
Note: SDG Push 3.0 estimates show the value of the indicators under that scenario while the change is the additional benefit or loss compared to the Equitable Low Carbon Pathways scenario in 2050. For example, 350.5 million people could be in poverty by 250 under the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, 154.7 million people less than in the Equitable Low Carbon Pathways scenario.
Source: Author’s computation based on the SDG Push 3.0 Model with the International Futures model. See Annex A for model description.
In the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, global poverty rates are projected to decline to 6.1% within the next decade – 14% lower than under the Equitable Low-Carbon Pathways scenario. By 2030, 89.6 million fewer people – representing 4 out of 10 Nigerians living below the national poverty line today – will be living in extreme poverty, including 46.8 million fewer females and 116.2 million fewer people – the size of the Philippines – will suffer from undernourishment. By 2035, an additional 80.7 million people, including 43.6 million women and girls, are expected to escape poverty, while 111 million fewer will experience malnutrition. These numbers are projected to grow further, with an additional 278.4 million people escaping poverty, including 143.9 million females, and 294.1 million gaining access to adequate diets by mid-century compared to 2030 levels. With the average cost of malnutrition per person estimated at USD 500 (Global Panel, 2016[11]), this leads to a gain of over USD 147 billion due to reduced costs associated with lost human capital investment, premature mortality in both adults and children, lower productivity and decreased healthcare expenses. Both in absolute and relative terms, Equitable Low‑Carbon Pathways investments could reduce poverty to 638 million by 2035, but integrating higher climate ambition into a pro‑growth scenario delivers the greatest gains. Under SDG Push 3.0, 90 million more people could escape poverty by 2035 – one in five of those in extreme poverty today – plus another 155 million by 2050, compared to the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario.
This progress is most pronounced among low-income and lower-middle-income groups. For low‑income populations, the percentage living in poverty decreases from 39% in the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways to 37% in SDG Push 3.0 by 2030. Similarly, for lower-middle-income groups, poverty rates fall from 9.92% in 2025 to 7.13%percent in 2030. With increased agricultural efficiency, improvements to yields and a more equitable distribution of calories – by 2035, 49.7 million fewer people in low-income countries experience malnutrition under SDG Push 3.0 compared to the Low Equitable Carbon Pathway, rising further to 69.35 million by mid-century. This translates to almost USD 24 billion in savings by 2035 due to the combined effects of malnutrition, with major impacts on productivity, healthcare costs and child development.
Under the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, health outcomes see modest improvement, with infant mortality rates decreasing by 4% by 2030 compared to the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario. Additionally, educational attainment and life expectancy experience growth. GDP per capita also grows faster across all income groups, surpassing the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario by an additional USD 500 globally by 2035. By mid-century, this income difference had expanded further, reaching USD 2 740. In other words, the per capita income gap between the medium and long term reflects an increase from the average global per capita income of USD 26.490 to the income levels currently seen in Luxembourg. Also, high-HDI countries are projected to see a 62% increase in GDP per capita by 2050, while low-HDI countries experience a 92% rise compared to 2025 levels. While disparities persist under the SDG Push 3.0, faster growth in lower-income nations helps narrow the inequality gap, marking progress toward a more inclusive global economy.
In addition to reducing poverty, the SDG Push 3.0 scenario achieves significant progress in access to safe water and sanitation services. By 2035, 97.1% of the global population has access to safe water, compared to 94.6% under the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario – an improvement benefiting over 215 million additional people. For sanitation, 92.68% of the global population has access to safely managed services under SDG Push 3.0, compared to 86.98% under the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways, providing improved sanitation for 501 million more people.
Beyond economic benefits, there are steady social improvements, particularly regarding the HDI, as SDG Push 3.0 elevates living standards across all development categories. The rate of improvement is comparable to the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways, thus enabling global HDI to reach the value of 0.758 by 2035. Countries currently classified as having low human development (HDI below 0.55) are projected to achieve an HDI of 0.70 by 2055, entering the high human development category just five years after 2050 – significantly earlier than the 2069 projection in the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario.
Note: Population living on less than USD 2.15/day over time (Mil people) and female poverty headcount (Mil people) in the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways and the SDG Push 3.0 scenarios.
Source: International Futures model.
Note: Malnourished population (millions) and Human Development Index (HDI) trends in the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways and the SDG Push 3.0 scenarios.
Source: International Futures model.
On the energy front, similar trends can be observed in the uptake of renewables as the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways (Figure 3.4). This transition offers a viable alternative to fossil fuel-driven development, achieving significant reductions in carbon emissions while fostering a synergistic development-energy nexus. Over the next decade, energy efficiency will improve significantly, reaching 0.742 barrels per thousand dollars – slightly exceeding the performance under the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario and marking a 21% improvement compared to 2025. A slight improvement in per capita energy demand in low- and lower- middle-income economies is also found, compared to the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario over the next decade. Additionally, per capita energy demand across income groups converges later in the century at a higher level (16.44 barrels of oil equivalent) compared to the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario. This improvement can stimulate economic growth further, improve quality of life and support vital infrastructure development, ultimately fostering more significant social and economic equity.
Note: Carbon emissions from fossil fuels (Billion Tonnes) and temperature change (Degrees Celsius) in the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways and the SDG Push 3.0 scenarios.
Source: International Futures model.
In the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, global carbon emissions from fossil fuels decrease slightly faster than in the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario, declining to 7.04 billion tonnes by 2035 and 3.39 billion tonnes by 2050. This reduction in emissions plays a crucial role in limiting global temperature rise to 1.6°C by the end of the century.
3.2.2. Moving the Needle on HDI: Regional and Income Group Insights
In the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, between 2025 and 2050, trends in the HDI exhibit significant regional disparities, with low-HDI countries experiencing transformative growth while high-HDI countries progress more incrementally. Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia are key drivers of global HDI improvements, increasing from 0.560 (2025) to 0.604 in 2035 and 0.676 in 2050 and from 0.664 in 2025 to 0.709 in 2035 and 0.775 in 2050, respectively. Conversely, high-HDI countries, such as in Europe, Northern America and Oceania, show slower growth, with Europe and Northern America rising from 0.896 in 2025 to 0.923 in 2035 and 0.960 in 2050, and Oceania increasing from 0.851 in 2025 to 0.872 in 2035 and 0.908 in 2050. This divergence suggests that while low-HDI countries possess the potential for rapid advancements, high-HDI countries must prioritise sustaining their progress.
Similarly, income-group analysis reveals that while high-income countries exhibit only moderate HDI growth due to their already high levels of development, low-income countries see a significant rise from 0.519 in 2025 to 0.641 by 2050. This suggests that targeted interventions in lower-income regions are crucial for narrowing global human development gaps.
As a key dimension of human development, poverty reduction follows a dual trajectory of progress and stagnation, shaped by structural economic challenges across regions and income groups. Central and Southern Asia achieve a remarkable 80.15% poverty reduction, with numbers declining from 153.1 million in 2025 to 63.11 million in 2035 and 30.39 million in 2050. Similarly, Eastern Asia, and Europe and Northern America, register substantial declines of 76.50% and 96.15%, respectively, between 2025 and 2050. However, Sub-Saharan Africa, despite a 42.43% reduction (from 431.3 million in 2025 to 383.5 million in 2035 and 248.3 million in 2050), remains disproportionately affected, due largely to governance challenges, economic instability and infrastructural deficits. From an income perspective, high-income countries nearly eradicate poverty by 2050, while upper middle-income and lower middle-income countries will experience significant declines, reaching 13.8 million and 118 million, respectively, by mid-century. However, low-income countries see only modest reductions, with poverty decreasing from 348.6 million in 2025 to 337.9 million in 2035 and 218.3 million in 2050, underscoring persistent economic vulnerabilities and external shocks. These disparities necessitate targeted strategies, including debt relief, inclusive economic growth models and sustainable infrastructure investments to ensure equitable development outcomes across all income levels.
3.2.3. Evidence to inform action on climate and SDG Interventions
The SDG Push 3.0 scenario reveals that, by 2035, an additional 89.6 million people could escape extreme poverty compared to the Equitable Low-Carbon Pathways scenario – equivalent to one in five people currently living in extreme poverty overcoming the poverty trap. By 2050, this number is expected to rise to 155 million. Additionally, 111.6 million more would avoid malnourishment, 215 million would gain access to safe water and 501 million would benefit from improved sanitation, with Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia seeing the most significant gains. Global GDP per capita increases by USD 500, with notable reductions in infant mortality and steady gains in health and education. Human development accelerates significantly, with global HDI reaching 0.858 by 2035 and low-HDI countries projected to enter the high human development category by 2055 – 14 years earlier than under the Equitable Low-Carbon Pathways scenario. This scenario underscores strong poverty reduction potential in the world's most impoverished nations, with 34 of 74 low- and medium-HDI countries eradicating extreme poverty by 2050. In the longer term, low- and middle-income countries, on average, achieve this milestone seven years earlier under SDG Push 3.0, highlighting the significant impact of targeted investments.
Examples of how SDG Push 3.0 could strengthen development trajectories in developing countries with specific examples from Bangladesh, Uganda and Thailand can be found in Box 3.2.
In the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, all countries experience significantly higher GDP per capita growth compared to the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario. By 2050, high-income countries will see a 62% increase, while low-income countries will experience a 124% rise from 2025 levels – compared to 44% and 71%, respectively, under the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario. This accelerates income convergence, narrowing global disparities and fostering a more inclusive economy. Additionally, faster economic growth in lower-income countries would substantially reduce global inequality, creating a fairer distribution of economic opportunities and enhancing resilience against socioeconomic shocks.
Beyond the economic gains, the SDG Push 3.0 also demonstrates strong poverty reduction potential in several developing countries. Tanzania could see extreme poverty drop by 50%, lifting 5.2 million people out of poverty, while the Democratic Republic of Congo could experience a 40% reduction, benefiting over 12 million people. In Sudan, poverty could decline by 22%, lifting an additional 1.9 million people. Moreover, among the 74 countries currently classified as having low or medium HDI, 34 – including Timor-Leste, Eritrea, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Bangladesh – could eradicate extreme poverty by 2050. In the longer run, low- and middle-income countries achieve poverty eradication seven years earlier, on average, under the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, underscoring the transformative impact of integrated investments on long-term development outcomes.
SDG Push 3.0 Deep Dive - Strengthening development trajectories in Bangladesh, Uganda and Thailand
The model shows evidence to support significant advances in Human Development when we integrate the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario with SDG Acceleration interventions. These include:
Bangladesh
Bangladesh is on track for significant poverty reduction under the SDG Push scenario. By 2050, around 10 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty, with the number living on less than USD 2.15 per day falling from 9.94 million in 2025 to less than 1.17 million (less than 0.6% of the population) – compared to 2.03 million under the Equitable, Low Carbon Pathways scenario. By mid-century, extreme poverty could be eradicated. This underscores the potential for poverty reduction when climate and social equity goals align.
The SDG Push 3.0 scenario envisions significant progress in human development for low HDI countries. In less than 30 years, countries like Bangladesh are projected to see their HDI rise from 0.656 in 2025 to 0.709, narrowing the gap with high HDI nations. Alongside this, malnutrition is expected to decrease, with 5.4 million people freed from hunger by 2030 and 14 million by 2050. Infant mortality is also set to decline by 66% by 2050, saving millions of lives, particularly in the most vulnerable communities. By mid-century, Bangladesh will ensure universal access to clean water and sanitation, improving public health, reducing waterborne diseases and enhancing the quality of life for its population. Furthermore, Bangladesh’s carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2039 and then drop to near zero by 2100, as the increase in energy demand is met primarily by renewables.
Uganda
Uganda is set to make significant progress under the SDG Push 3.0 scenario. By 2052, the country is expected to achieve high development status (HDI of 0.705), driven by improvements in education, health and income. Primary and secondary education completion rates are projected to rise by 70% and more than double, respectively, by mid-century compared to 2025. Infant mortality is expected to drop by 58% and approximately 14.5 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty, with a notable reduction in female poverty – around 7.3 million women would benefit.
As female empowerment grows, child malnutrition will decline, lifting millions out of hunger. These gains will create a more resilient and prosperous society, demonstrating the power of combining fairness and equity in energy systems with sustainable development.
On emissions, Uganda’s per capita carbon footprint is expected to decline by the end of the century, driven by gains in energy efficiency and a greater reliance on renewables. This transition aligns with Uganda’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions in the energy sector by 2065, while also supporting its development goals, including providing universal access to energy for its population.
Thailand
With a comprehensive set of investments focused on energy equity, climate ambition and sustainable development, Thailand is expected to experience significant long-term gains in GDP per capita. By 2050, GDP per capita is projected to reach USD 28,400, compared to USD 24,710 under the Equitable, Low carbon Pathways scenario, reflecting a 15% increase. These economic gains are expected to translate into substantial social improvements, including a remarkable 97% reduction in malnutrition and the complete eradication of extreme poverty by 2050. Additionally, human development is set to improve, with the country achieving an HDI of 0.888, comparable to Poland's current HDI. These outcomes will be accompanied by an increase in per capita energy demand, met through improvements in the supply of renewable energy and the achievement of carbon neutrality in the energy sector by 2050.
Under the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, fossil fuel emissions could drop to 3.39 billion tonnes by 2050, aligning with a global warming cap of 1.6°C through a decisive shift to cleaner energy sources and efficiency improvements. This transition would phase out high-emission fuels like coal and oil while significantly expanding renewable energy options. Importantly, the scenario promotes energy equity: high‑income countries reduce their energy consumption, allowing low- and middle-income nations to increase theirs, fostering a fairer and more sustainable global energy distribution.
Strengthening NDCs 3.0 by integrating development priorities with higher climate ambition is both necessary and feasible. This is at the core of UNDP’s support to countries designing their NDCs 3.0, ensuring interlinkages between climate actions and national development priority actions (Box 3.3). NDCs investments can drive progress across the SDGs, as shown by the UNDP NDC x SDG Insights reports. This initiative examines the interplay between NDC activities and SDGs at the country level, leveraging data, systems and financial analyses to identify policy enablers tailored to national contexts and development agendas. These reports provide an entry point for engagement in a whole-of-government approach, especially the National Planning and the Ministry of Finance, in drafting stocktakes and developing NDCs 3.0 while ensuring policy coherence.
Embedding energy equity into NDCs 3.0 with commitments tailored to the capabilities of different geographies is essential. This includes providing targeted support through technology transfers, financing and capacity-building to ensure equitable progress. Expanding accessible, high-quality climate finance is critical to enabling countries to implement mitigation measures and benefit from limiting global warming within safe limits. Although estimates differ, many align within a range of USD 4 - 5 trillion annually worldwide between 2030 and 2050 to fund the transformation of energy, transportation, agriculture and land use to achieve net-zero emissions (Naran et al., 2022[12]).
NDC investments can drive progress across the SDGs, as shown by the UNDP NDC x SDG Insights reports. This initiative examines the interplay between NDC activities and SDGs at the country level, leveraging data, systems and financial analyses to identify policy enablers tailored to national contexts and development agendas. These reports provide an entry point for engagement in a whole‑of-government approach, especially the National Planning and the Ministry of Finance, in drafting stocktakes and developing NDCs 3.0 while ensuring policy coherence.
The NDC x SDG framework identifies acceleration pathways and systemic barriers to climate action. They address key questions to help countries harmonise their climate and development efforts. Structured into four main sections – NDC x SDG Moment, NDC x SDG Alignment, NDC x SDG Interlinkages, and Finance & Stimulus – the reports provide policymakers with actionable insights for developing NDCs 3.0, including:
1. How do the priorities of a country’s NDC compare to those in its National Development Plan, and where do overlaps or gaps exist?
2. Which climate actions offer the most significant co-benefits for sustainable development?
3. What actions and additional insights can improve NDCs 3.0?
Examples from pilot countries: co-benefits of climate action and sustainable development
In Cambodia, NDC actions can accelerate job creation and industrialisation. Increased ambition in agriculture, waste management, and energy efficiency can contribute to reducing emissions, accelerating job creation (SDG Target 8.3), and improving resource efficiency (SDG Target 8.4). Uzbekistan’s focus on renewable energy and afforestation can foster sustainable growth while strengthening institutional capacities for effective governance (SDG Target 16.6). Meanwhile, Liberia’s pursuit of low-carbon agriculture and renewable energy projects can enhance rural enterprise development and expand access to cleaner, more reliable power.
Tunisia’s emphasis on industry, waste management and energy efficiency supports urban resilience and infrastructure upgrades, aligning directly with SDG Target 9.4 on upgrading industries for sustainability. El Salvador demonstrates how investing in ecosystem restoration and resilient infrastructure can reduce pollution-related health risks (SDG Target 3.9) and build more inclusive, sustainable cities (SDG Target 11.3). Across all these contexts, aligning climate strategies with development goals yields co-benefits, enhancing resilience and promoting socio-economic well-being.
Countries can drive long-term transformation by linking climate and development priorities in NDCs 3.0. Robust institutional frameworks, policy coherence and inclusive decision-making ensure that marginalised communities, women and youth benefit equitably from climate investments. This integrated strategy attracts targeted funding, spurs innovation, and aligns climate mitigation and adaptation efforts with national goals - laying the foundation for greener economies, inclusive societies and a resilient future.
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← 1. These assumptions reflect the International Energy Agency’s energy transition, as outlined in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) (IEA, 2023[13]). The energy transition is harmonised to the one included in the Enhanced NDCs scenario, in the analysis performed with the ENV-Linkages and NiGEM models.