Global Scenarios 2035

Annex A. Scenario implications by category

Table A.1. Scenario implications by category

	Multitrack World	Virtual Worlds	Vulnerable World
Social
Inequality	Varies substantially as not all clusters emphasise equality and inclusion as a component of social well-being, or define it on the same terms. Inequality between clusters grows on multiple dimensions	Basic connectivity provided globally as a universal human right. However, connectivity and VR equipment differences privilege the wealthy and allow greater opportunities in virtual space	Inequality is exacerbated by innovation-led growth, hindering political discourse to the degree that it threatens the viability of democratic governance
Migration	Migration levels are high but concentrated within clusters, where it is relatively frictionless. Job opportunities in ageing countries is a pull factor	Access to new hardware only released in some locations is a novel pull factor (and point of complex negotiation), while unemployment is less of a push factor	Environmental hazards and unemployment are major push factors for migration among vulnerable communities and is highly politicised
Identity	Each cluster actively fosters a sense of shared identity. Identity is strongly formed based on othering between clusters	Individuals can express themselves differently in different areas of the metaverse, provided they fall within state constraints	Tribalism has been cemented in many countries as people band together around newly formed ideologies
Technology
Internet connectivity	Splintered between clusters, with extremely high barriers to reconnect	Common global platform with universal access as a human right	Near-universal access provided by saturated satellite networks
Artificial intelligence	AI arms race is accelerating with a high risk of artificial general intelligence being developed without sufficient safeguards	Nuanced debates over digital issues like AI and surveillance occur regularly within areas of the digital world where such discussion is permitted	Competition to achieve supremacy in AI has accelerated the arrival of general AI but prevented the creation of enforceable standards on alignment
Environment
Climate change and environmental emergencies	Bad and getting worse, but not yet disastrous on a scale that breaks clusters apart. Each cluster is managing based on its own priorities	Better, due to massive shift to renewables for electricity and VR/AR displacing much transportation and mobility	Emissions reduced, but cascading, interconnected environmental emergencies are nevertheless imminent
Energy profile	Energy security and independence within clusters is priority, whatever the form; cluster with the raw materials, and R&D capacity are the most advanced on renewables	High levels of electricity usage and lower levels of liquid fuels, but the renewables supply has yet to be able to keep pace with demands of the digital economy	Private sector-led transition to renewables based on technological innovation came at the expense of a just and holistic sustainability transition

 

	Multitrack World	Virtual Worlds	Vulnerable World
Economy
Economic paradigm	Varies by cluster, with some continuing to pursue growth above all and others taking a more well-being driven approach	Innovation- and entertainment-led economic growth is one of the main features of the global system	Technology-driven growth brought progress but may be reaching its limits due to collective action problems
Labour markets	Local and protected in the more decentralised clusters; Highly connected within more integrated clusters; Largely sheltered from competition from other clusters	Single globally connected labour market where unequal bandwidth is the main remaining barrier to perfect competition; wage stagnation, but also lower costs to achieve well-being	Many new technology-based and green jobs were created, but automation is accelerated inequality and structural unemployment is becoming a global challenge
International trade & monetary relations	Trade and currency flows are almost exclusively limited to clusters; some have single currencies and others are still diversified	Trade and investment are global and mostly on digital products using digital currencies; hard currencies exist as reserves	The US dollar remains dominant, and value chains are more localised and optimised to be adaptive to disruption
Governance
Geopolitics	The US and China each head clusters, but other clusters include Europe, India, Russia, and non-geographic clusters of like-minded smaller powers	Nation-states similar to in 2020 but are less powerful actors in global governance, with corporations securing a seat the table and civil society knocking on the door	Multilateral institutions are becoming defunct as countries struggle with regional and domestic crises; private sector operates independently in a parallel infrastructure
Non-state actors	The position of many is weakened as global connections are broken or go underground; organisations aligned with cluster-based values systems do best	Non-state diplomacy is critical. Tech companies’ role in hosting and curating virtual spaces gives them power, while new and persistent inequalities motivate civil society	Success in addressing emissions renewed trust in the private sector; civil society now pushing for technology- and innovation-based solutions

Source: OECD Strategic Foresight Unit.