This chapter reviews international evidence on the academic and non‑academic consequences of school attendance problems. Absences reduce exposure to instruction and peer interaction, undermining academic performance, attainment, motivation and executive functioning. Their effects extend beyond academics, being associated with poorer social and emotional skills, higher risks of anxiety and depression, externalising behaviours and engagement in risky activities. Academic and non-academic consequences interact in self-reinforcing cycles, contributing to cumulative disadvantage and disengagement. School attendance problems can also have substantial consequences beyond education: in the labour market, health and welfare, justice involvement, civic engagement and housing stability.
Every Day Counts
Abstract
School attendance problems have consequences that extend beyond missed instructional time. They are linked to students’ academic progress, non-academic outcomes and longer-term life chances, while also creating wider costs for public systems. At the same time, absences are part of a cycle in which they both result from and contribute to outcomes in and through education. However, research in many of these areas remains limited.
Absences are consistently linked to poorer academic outcomes
Absences reduce access to instruction, feedback, assessment and peer learning, which can weaken academic performance. Across education systems, school attendance problems are associated with lower academic performance and poorer learning progress.
Absences can weaken the foundations for learning
The consequences are not limited to missed content and performance. School attendance problems are also linked to weaker executive functioning, lower motivation, reduced perseverance and lower educational aspirations, all of which can further undermine students’ capacity to learn.
Effects can begin early and can intensify at key stages
Absences in early childhood education and care, and primary education are linked to weaker development of foundation skills. During lower secondary education, absences can be especially harmful because they coincide with important academic and developmental transitions. In upper secondary education, absences remain damaging, particularly during key assessment periods.
Non-academic consequences can be substantial
School attendance problems are associated with weaker social and emotional skills, lower school connectedness and a reduced sense of belonging. They are also linked to greater risks of internalising difficulties, such as anxiety, depression and self-harm, as well as externalising and risky behaviours.
Absences increase the risk of early leaving from education and training, and lower attainment
Repeated absences are a strong predictor of early leaving from education and training. Over time, they can reduce the likelihood of completing upper secondary education, progressing to further or higher education, and obtaining qualifications, thereby reinforcing longer-term educational disadvantage.
Later labour market and life outcomes can be poorer, though research is limited
Limited research links school attendance problems to poorer transitions into adulthood, especially higher risks of unemployment and, in some contexts, lower earnings. It also associates sustained absences with poorer health and well-being later in life, greater involvement with the justice system, lower civic participation and reduced housing stability.
School attendance problems can also create wider public costs
The consequences are not only individual. School attendance problems are associated with pressures on education, welfare, health and justice systems, although estimates are limited and should not be interpreted as causal effects of absences alone.
School attendance problems (SAP) are not only a matter of missed instructional time. They represent a multidimensional disruption to students’ academic trajectories, social and emotional development, and long-term life chances. This chapter synthesises the current evidence on the consequences of SAP across educational stages and domains, drawing on international research and country examples, and situates these consequences within a broader systemic perspective.
At their core, SAP interrupt learning processes. Absences reduce exposure to instruction, feedback, peer interaction and assessment, thereby undermining academic performance in the short term and attainment in the longer term. However, the consequences extend beyond grades and qualifications. SAP are associated with weaker executive functioning, lower motivation and educational aspirations, diminished social and emotional skills, higher risks of internalising and externalising behaviours, greater engagement in risky activities, and poorer transitions into further education and employment. In adulthood, they are associated with weaker labour market attachment, lower earnings, higher benefit receipt, adverse health and well-being outcomes, and even increased justice involvement, lowered civic engagement and reduced housing stability. However, as will be elaborated below, much of this evidence is correlational. Moreover, the potential direction of causality is unclear: SAP may contribute to these adverse outcomes, but these same difficulties and disadvantages may also increase the likelihood of absences. This risk of reverse causality, alongside the influence of other underlying factors, needs to be kept in mind when interpreting the evidence.
Indeed, the consequences of SAP are best understood not as isolated effects but as part of a dynamic, often self-reinforcing cycle. Drivers of SAP, elaborated in Chapter 2, are multifaceted and can be structured around a chronosystem, macrosystem, exosystem, mesosystem, microsystem and personal characteristics. Academic and non-academic outcomes are tightly intertwined, with feedback loops that make it difficult to disentangle SAP from their causes (Figure 3.1).
Note: Not all consequences are displayed. ELET = early leaving from education and training.
In this structure, SAP both result from and contribute to academic underperformance, socio-emotional challenges and disengagement. For example, early learning difficulties can increase frustration and reduce school engagement, leading to further absences. In turn, absences exacerbate learning gaps and weaken motivation, reinforcing academic vulnerability. Similarly, anxiety or depression may contribute to non‑attendance, while prolonged absences can intensify social isolation and emotional distress. These reciprocal pathways, documented throughout this chapter, underline the cumulative nature of SAP.
Because of these feedback loops and cross-domain effects, SAP (chronic absences, more specifically) have been described as a “wicked problem” (Childs and Lofton, 2021[1]). Wicked problems are unstructured in that their causes and effects are extremely difficult to identify, disentangle and model, and are further complicated by limited consensus on how the problem should be defined or addressed (Crowley and Head, 2017[2]; Weber and Khademian, 2008[3]). In the case of SAP, cyclicality lies at the heart of this complexity: the same factors that drive SAP, such as low achievement, mental health difficulties or weak school connectedness, are also shaped and intensified by absences themselves. Each of the multiple causes of SAP can independently and jointly undermine students’ academic and non-academic outcomes. At the same time, the resulting learning loss, weakened motivation, internalising and externalising behaviours, and other outcomes further increase the likelihood of continued absences. Academic and non-academic consequences, therefore, interact in reinforcing feedback loops, blurring the boundary between drivers and outcomes.
Beyond individual consequences, SAP are associated with substantial and measurable fiscal implications for public systems. In New Zealand, for instance, administrative data indicate that by age 20, young adults who were chronically absent are linked to public expenditures nearly three times higher than those of their peers (ERO, 2024[4]). By age 23, average annual public spending on corrections, hospital admissions and benefits associated with chronically absent young adults reaches NZD 7 389 (EUR 4 132)1 per person, which is around NZD 4 000 (EUR 2 237) per person more than for other young people. These differences are largely explained by higher benefit receipt, greater involvement with the justice system and increased hospital admissions (ibid.). In California (United States), system-level financial implications are also visible within education budgets. Student absences were associated with approximately USD 1 billion (EUR 0.9 billion) in lost school funding in the 2014/15 school year alone, and an estimated USD 4.5 billion (EUR 4.1 billion) over four years (Gottfried and Hutt, 2019[5]). These estimates should not be interpreted as causal effects of absences alone. They capture associations at the system level and may partly reflect the broader disadvantages and needs of the students who are more likely to be absent. Yet, the examples reveal that SAP can be linked to significant pressures on education, health, welfare and justice systems over time.
Taken together, the evidence on outcomes in education reveals that SAP are consistently linked to poorer academic outcomes, with larger impacts when absences are long-term, repeated or occur around transitions and assessments. Studies also point to plausible mechanisms, which include lost instructional time, weaker executive functioning and reduced motivation/aspirations, as well as spillover effects in high‑absence classrooms. These relationships are presented in the first section that follows. Beyond academics, SAP are associated with weaker social and emotional skills, lower school connectedness, and higher internalising (e.g. anxiety/depression and self-harm risk) and externalising/risky behaviours, which can partly mediate academic impacts. These effects are presented in the second section.
Beyond education, evidence introduced in the third section links SAP to higher risks of early leaving from education and training (ELET), lower attainment, and to weaker labour market outcomes (greater unemployment and in some contexts lower earnings). The literature, which is synthesised in the final two sections, also suggests associations with poorer later health and well-being, greater justice involvement, lower civic engagement (e.g. voting), and reduced housing stability, though pathways often reflect broader disadvantage and mediation through attainment rather than simple direct effects.
Given the breadth of the literature, choices had to be made in regard to study selection. Mediation effects are discussed only when explicitly modelled in research examining the relationship between SAP and outcomes through education. For example, studies that analyse educational attainment or ELET as mediating pathways between SAP and later outcomes are included. By contrast, studies that investigate links between attainment (or early leaving) and later life outcomes without incorporating SAP into the analytical framework fall outside the scope of this chapter.
A substantial body of causal and quasi-causal research also examined the effects of instructional time on student outcomes. While this evidence does not provide a direct estimate of absence effects and it is beyond the scope of this report to elaborate at length on it, it offers insight into one important mechanism through which SAP may affect outcomes (Box 3.1).
Increases in instructional time tend to improve academic outcomes, though average effects are generally modest (Kidron and Lindsay, 2014[6]; Scheerens, 2014[7]). For instance, evidence from PISA, as well as other sources, indicates that additional instructional time is associated with an increase of 0.05-0.10 standard deviations in achievement per additional weekly hour (Kraft and Novicoff, 2024[8]; Lavy, 2015[9]; Rivkin and Schiman, 2015[10]). These relationships are observed across a range of countries, including Canada, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Germany, Israel, Italy, Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and the United States (Kraft and Novicoff, 2024[8]).
Additional time does not benefit all students equally and returns depend on student needs as well as learning environments. For instance, the benefits can be higher for disadvantaged students, students performing below standards, or those in higher-quality instructional settings (Kidron and Lindsay, 2014[6]; Kraft and Novicoff, 2024[8]; Leuven et al., 2010[11]; Scheerens, 2014[7]). This is particularly important, because SAP disproportionately affect disadvantaged students, implying that reductions in instructional time may compound existing inequalities. Studies also indicate that additional instructional time may be most beneficial where baseline instructional time is relatively low (Kraft and Novicoff, 2024[8]; Lavy, 2015[9]; Rivkin and Schiman, 2015[10]). Where school days or school years are already long, further extensions tend to generate smaller gains.
How time is used matters at least as much as how much time is added. Research distinguishes between nominal time allocated to schooling and the share of that time that becomes active learning time (Kraft and Novicoff, 2024[8]). Instructional time may be diminished by interruptions, disengagement or ineffective pedagogies, while high-quality instruction can increase the productivity of each hour spent in school. This suggests that the educational implications of absences cannot be understood only as lost “seat time”, but as potentially reduced access to cumulative and productive learning opportunities. From this perspective, absences may disrupt not only the quantity but also the continuity and quality of students’ learning experiences. Evidence from Germany, for example, highlights that cumulative instructional exposure, rather than instructional time measured at a single point in time, may be especially relevant for learning, consistent with the idea that absences can disrupt cumulative skill formation (Mandel and Süssmuth, 2011[12]).
School absences and academic performance
Academic performance usually results from continuous engagement in formal education, including exposure to instructional content, feedback and assessment within structured learning environments (Klein, 2025[13]). Intuitively, regular school attendance ensures continuous exposure to these learning processes, whereas absences disrupt them, increasing the risk of compounding learning gaps. Conceptually, this aligns with the Faucet Theory, which defines learning as a continuous process similar to water flowing from a faucet. Regular attendance ensures steady knowledge acquisition, whereas absences disrupt this flow, resulting in cumulative learning deficits (Entwisle, Alexander and Olson, 2001[14]). When students are absent, they miss not only curricular content but also teacher explanations, interactions with other students and opportunities for peer learning and collaborative problem solving, all of which are central to cognitive and academic development (Balfanz and Byrnes, 2012[15]; Vygotsky and Cole, 1978[16]). At the same time, advances in digital learning environments and wider access to online resources may, in principle, make it easier for students to catch up on missed content. However, these tools may not fully compensate for the loss of in-class instruction, interaction and feedback, particularly for younger or less self-directed learners.
The timing of absences also plays an important role in shaping their academic consequences. Evidence using administrative data indicates that the relationship between absences and achievement varies depending on when absences occur within the school year. For example, evidence from the Flemish Community of Belgium indicates that absences at the beginning and end of the school year are associated with larger negative effects on academic performance (Keppens, 2023[17]). Similarly, analyses from an urban school district in California (United States) indicate that missing school within 30 days of key assessment was the largest significant predictor of lower test scores, while absences occurring after the assessment have little or no measurable effects (Gottfried and Kirksey, 2017[18]). Taken together, these findings suggest that the impact of absences is not determined solely by the total number of days missed, but also by when these absences occur within the learning process.
Building on these mechanisms, the evidence refers to a range of related but distinct academic consequences of SAP. Across a range of contexts, these include short-term measures, such as grades, test scores and learning progress (Aucejo and Romano, 2016[19]; Gershenson, Jacknowitz and Brannegan, 2017[20]; Kirksey, 2019[21]; Kristensen, Jensen and Krassel, 2020[22]), as well as longer-term indicators of attainment, such as passing key examinations, obtaining qualifications, and successfully progressing through education or into post-school pathways (see Consequences for early leaving from education and training, and attainment) (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[23]; ERO, 2022[24]; ERO, 2024[4]; Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]). While different studies emphasise different outcomes, they reach the same conclusion: SAP undermine students’ opportunities to acquire knowledge and skills, and their abilities to demonstrate learning through assessments and qualifications.
Recent changes in schooling conditions further underline the importance of examining the relationship between absences and academic performance. While, following the COVID-19 pandemic, absences have increased in many education systems (Chapter 1) and average academic achievement has declined (OECD, 2023[26]), there are several reasons to believe that the strength of the relationship between attendance and achievement may have decreased in the post-pandemic period. One contributing factor is the decline in instructional quality – due to school closures and distance learning – during and immediately after the pandemic, which may have eroded the academic value of attendance (Klein, 2025[13]). Furthermore, grading and assessment changes, such as looser grading standards, altered testing protocols and more accommodating assignment due dates, may have lessened the impact of absences on academic performance (ibid.). Indeed, the negative link between attendance and achievement weakened slightly after the pandemic, which may be partly explained by increased use of remote learning and more flexible instructional practices, as well as changes in the patterns and severity of absences (Swiderski, Fuller and Bastian, 2025[27]). These developments highlight both the continued relevance of attendance for learning and the need for caution in interpreting this evidence. Despite a rich body of literature covering different aspects of absences, important gaps remain. These include limited evidence outside of the United States, relatively little research on the effects of absences during early childhood education and care (ECEC), its consequences during post-compulsory education, and an incomplete understanding of the mechanisms through which absences affect performance. Addressing these is essential for interpreting cross-country evidence.
School absences may undermine cognitive processes that support learning
SAP may hinder the development of foundation cognitive processes that support learning. In particular, the term “executive functioning” describes a set of mental abilities that support goal-directed behaviour, including working memory, attention regulation and cognitive flexibility. Reduced exposure to structured learning environments may limit opportunities to practise and strengthen these skills. Indeed, chronic absence in early schooling is linked to long-term declines in executive functioning, with persistent effects on working memory and cognitive flexibility observed several years later (Gottfried and Ansari, 2021[28]). Results do not change even after accounting for student background characteristics.
Higher overall classroom absence rates are associated with weaker executive functioning among students – including working memory and cognitive flexibility – even after accounting for individual absences, suggesting that these effects extend to all students, not only those who are frequently absent (Gottfried and Ansari, 2022[29]).
Additional evidence from different profiles of “school refusal” behaviour among Spanish adolescents indicates that certain absence profiles – specifically “mixed school refusal” and “school refusal by negative reinforcement”2 – are associated with difficulties in concentration, selection of main ideas and test-taking strategies (Giménez-Miralles et al., 2021[30]). This reflects underlying challenges in executive functioning that are closely tied to academic performance (ibid.). Overall, evidence suggests that chronic or repeated absence may hamper the development of executive functioning, although some “school refusal” profiles indicate associations without clear directionality.
Absences are linked to weaker motivation, academic engagement, educational expectations and performance
SAP can also weaken students’ engagement with learning by affecting motivation, educational aspirations and academic self-concept. Absences are associated with reduced eagerness to learn, lower perseverance and diminished confidence in academic ability (Finn, 1989[31]; Gottfried, 2014[32]; Ansari and Gottfried, 2021[33]). Frequent absences can disrupt the learning process, making it harder for students to experience mastery and success, which can lead to frustration, lower self-efficacy, and declining motivation to attend and engage in school (Fredricks, Blumenfeld and Paris, 2004[34]). Over time, repeated absences can undermine students’ routines and study habits, making re-engagement increasingly difficult. In this sense, absences are not only a cause of learning loss but also a signal of underlying academic, social or emotional challenges that can undermine motivation and aspirations, reinforcing poor academic performance over time if left unaddressed.
Lower intrinsic motivation and educational expectations among students with SAP are also observed using internationally comparable data. In several countries, 15-year-old students who reported having missed three or more months of schooling in their previous educational journey have lower intrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation is measured as the share of students who agree with the statement “I love learning new things in school”. On average across OECD countries, 46.6% of long-term absent students reported loving learning new things in school, compared to 51.5% among those who were not absent, yielding a modest difference of 4.9 percentage points (panel A in Figure 3.2). Long-term absent students are also less likely to expect to achieve a tertiary education. On average across OECD countries, 56.6% of long‑term absent students expect to complete at least a bachelor’s or equivalent degree, compared to 64.0% among their peers, a gap of 7.3 points (panel B in Figure 3.2).
Difference between students who reported being long-term absent and those who were not in agreement with “I love learning new things in school” (panel A) and the expectation that they will attain tertiary education (panel B)
Note: Statistically significant differences are marked in darker colours. Panel A of the figure displays the difference, in percentage points, between 15-year-old students who were long-term absent and those who were not long-term absent in the share who agreed or strongly agreed with the statement “I love learning new things in school”. Positive values mean a higher intrinsic motivation among long-term absent students. Panel B of the figure displays the difference, in percentage points, between students who were long-term absent and those who were not long‑term absent in the share of students who expect to attain tertiary education (ISCED 6 or above). Positive values mean a higher expectation among long-term absent students. Long-term absent students are those who missed school for three or more consecutive months at any point in their educational journey.
Source: OECD (2022[35]), PISA 2022 (dataset), https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/pisa-2022-database.html (accessed on 19 May 2025).
Absences and performance interact through cumulative and self-reinforcing processes
SAP and academic performance are closely linked, with repeated absences associated with progressively weaker learning outcomes over time. Longitudinal evidence from England and Wales (United Kingdom) indicates that students who experience moderate or increasing absence trajectories across compulsory schooling tend to show weaker academic achievement later on, even after accounting for background characteristics (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[36]; Klein et al., 2024[37]). This suggests that repeated absences can have cumulative effects on learning outcomes (ibid.). Evidence from Finland similarly reveals that students with repeated absences between grades 6 and 9 follow distinct developmental pathways associated with weaker school grades, lower learning motivation and poorer academic progress in later stages of education, pointing to the longer-term implications of sustained SAP (Hotulainen et al., 2024[38]). Complementary evidence from the Flemish Community of Belgium highlights that absences are embedded in broader trajectories of academic difficulty and disengagement (Keppens and Spruyt, 2019[39]). Notably, risk factors for school failure, truancy and ELET largely overlap, and academic difficulties often precede truancy, while truancy itself is a strong predictor of ELET (ibid.).
While much of the empirical evidence identifies a directional relationship from absence to poorer outcomes, this relationship is better understood as cumulative and potentially self-reinforcing (Klein, Sosu and Dare, 2022[40]; Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[36]). Students experiencing early learning difficulties may be more likely to disengage and miss school. At the same time, absences further exacerbate these challenges by limiting instructional exposure, weakening executive functioning and reducing motivation.
Taken together, these findings point to a dynamic relationship in which absences both contribute to and result from academic difficulties. This highlights the importance of interpreting absence patterns within a broader developmental context and of designing interventions that address not only attendance itself but also the academic and contextual factors that contribute to and result from SAP (see also Chapter 2).
How academic consequences of absences vary across educational stages
The effect of long-term absence on scores can be substantial. On average across OECD countries, 15‑year-old students who missed school for three or more consecutive months scored 35.0, 41.2 and 59.2 points lower in mathematics if absent in primary, lower secondary and upper secondary education, respectively (Figure 3.3). These differences already account for students' and schools' socio-economic profiles. Only one country, Denmark, exhibits a non-significant difference, and only for primary education. The following sections present academic evidence across a range of education systems on how the academic consequences of absences vary across educational stages.
Change in mathematics performance when students reported that they had missed school for more than three consecutive months
Note: * Caution is required when interpreting estimates because one or more PISA sampling standards were not met (see Reader’s Guide, Annexes A2 and A4 in OECD (2023[26])). All differences are statistically significant, except for Denmark in primary education. The differences account for students' and schools' socio‑economic profile, measured by the PISA index of economic, social and cultural status.
Sorted in ascending order by the change in primary education.
Source: OECD (2023[41]), PISA 2022 Results (Volume II): Learning During – and From – Disruption, Table II.B1.3.52, https://doi.org/10.1787/a97db61c-en.
Absences in early childhood and primary education can put basic skills at risk and contribute to long-term learning difficulties
Evidence from ECEC and primary education consistently indicates that frequent, chronic or sustained absences are associated with weaker academic performance, particularly in foundation skills, such as literacy and numeracy. Evidence from the United States reveals that absences in ECEC among 3- and 4‑year-old children are linked to smaller gains in early mathematics and reading scores, lower academic readiness at school entry, and persistent learning difficulties in later primary grades, especially among children with lower initial skill levels (Ansari and Purtell, 2018[42]; Ehrlich, Gwynne and Allensworth, 2018[43]). Chronic absence is also associated with lower classroom engagement and weaker performance in reading and mathematics by the end of ECEC (Gottfried, 2014[32]).
Evidence from primary education further indicates that frequent absences are associated with lower grades and test scores in reading and mathematics (Morrissey, Hutchison and Winsler, 2014[44]; Gershenson, Jacknowitz and Brannegan, 2017[20]). These results hold even after accounting for unobserved individual differences, and shared family and school factors (Aucejo and Romano, 2016[19]; Kristensen, Jensen and Krassel, 2020[22]). Other analyses indicate that chronic absence between ECEC and the end of primary education predicts weaker academic performance in later years, even after accounting for socio-economic background and prior achievement, underscoring the cumulative nature of missed learning during this stage (Smerillo et al., 2018[45]; Ansari and Gottfried, 2021[33]).
At the same time, students who are more frequently absent in any given year of primary education show lower academic achievement in both mathematics and literacy already at the end of each school year (Ansari and Gottfried, 2021[33]). This suggests that while the effects of absences are long-term, they also have immediate consequences for students’ achievement. Beyond test scores, evidence suggests that primary teachers view chronically absent students as less socially skilled and academically capable, even in the absence of behavioural issues (Gottfried, Kim and Fletcher, 2024[46]). This indicates that SAP may weaken teacher-student relationships and further hinder academic progress (ibid.).
Missing school in lower secondary education is also linked to academic performance, especially at transition points
Absences during lower secondary education are associated with pronounced declines in academic performance, a pattern that may be explained by increased curricular complexity and the challenges students face during transitions between educational stages. Studies using sibling fixed effects and instrumental variable approaches indicate that increased absences between grades 3 and 8 are associated with lower standardised test scores and grade point averages, even after accounting for shared family and school characteristics (Gottfried, 2010[47]; Gottfried, 2011[48]).
Transitions in education, such as the move from primary to lower secondary education, are characterised by changes in curricula, teaching practices, organisational structures and assessment regimes. Repeated absences during these periods can hinder students’ ability to adapt to new academic expectations and establish learning routines that support continued progress. Evidence from England (United Kingdom) indicates that absences during grade 6 (the final year of primary education) and during the early years of secondary education are more strongly associated with poorer outcomes at the end of compulsory schooling than absences in other years (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[36]). Similar patterns are observed in the United States, where absences have particularly detrimental effects on achievement during lower secondary education, a phase marked by increasing curricular complexity and higher academic expectations (Santibañez and Guarino, 2021[49]).
Importantly, these transition periods are not only times when absences have more severe consequences on performance, but also moments when students are more likely to disengage and miss school. As discussed in Chapter 2, transitions, especially between primary and lower secondary education, are associated with increased risks of disengagement and adjustment difficulties, which, in turn, can increase the likelihood of SAP. This combination of higher absence rates and greater performance consequences means that missed instruction during transitions may weaken foundation skills and learning trajectories in ways that are difficult to reverse later.
Absences in upper secondary education have a more nuanced effect on performance, except during key instructional and assessment periods
At later stages of schooling, the academic consequences of absences are closely shaped by assessment practices and the organisation of instruction. In upper secondary education, the effects of individual absences on short-term performance outcomes tend to be more heterogeneous and closely shaped by assessment practices, instructional timing and course organisation (Goodman, 2014[50]; Gottfried and Kirksey, 2017[18]; Liu, Lee and Gershenson, 2021[51]). This may partly reflect greater student autonomy, subject specialisation and selection into courses and programmes. However, when absences are repeated or clustered during periods of intensive instruction and assessment, they remain strongly associated with weaker academic performance. Indeed, absences occurring during periods leading up to assessments are associated with larger declines in test and course performance than absences occurring earlier in the school year, while absences after assessment windows tend to have weaker or no measurable effects (Goodman, 2014[50]; Gottfried and Kirksey, 2017[18]; Liu, Lee and Gershenson, 2021[51]). Analyses from the United States that account for differences between students and subjects further indicate that even relatively modest levels of absence in upper secondary education can be associated with lower grades and test performance in mathematics and language subjects, particularly in contexts where assessment is closely tied to ongoing coursework and classroom participation (Kirksey, 2019[21]; Liu, Lee and Gershenson, 2021[51]). Similar concerns have also been raised in evidence from Wales (United Kingdom), which highlights the potential impact of absence on coursework completion, assessment participation and learning continuity in upper secondary education (Welsh Parliament, 2022[52]).
This evidence on the more context-dependent and heterogeneous effects of absences in upper secondary education might seem at odds with the results presented in Figure 3.3 above, which indicates that missing school in upper secondary has a greater effect on mathematics performance than missing school at lower educational levels. However, the data underlying this figure (PISA 2022) are collected from 15-year-old students, many of whom have not yet fully entered upper secondary education and may still be experiencing key educational transitions. In addition, PISA assesses broader competencies rather than mastery of specific curricular content, meaning that students may be better able to compensate for missed classroom instruction through self-study or learning outside of school. As such, the results presented for this educational level in the figure should be interpreted with caution. Overall, while performance effects at this stage are more heterogeneous, sustained absences during assessment-intensive periods can undermine students’ ability to demonstrate learning.
Types and reasons of absences and spillover effects on academic performance
Academic performance is strongly related to the amount of instructional time missed, although some studies find differences by type of absence
Early evidence from the United States suggests that unauthorised absences are more strongly associated with poorer academic performance, particularly in primary education. For example, analyses of primary school students found that, conditional on total absences, unauthorised absences are more strongly associated with lower achievement in mathematics and reading than authorised absences (Gottfried, 2009[53]; Gershenson, Jacknowitz and Brannegan, 2017[20]).
Other evidence indicates that once the total volume of missed instruction is taken into account, the distinction between authorised and unauthorised absences adds limited explanatory power for academic performance. Analyses from England (United Kingdom) reveal that while authorised and unauthorised absences are negatively associated with achievement at the end of primary and secondary education, the total number of days missed is, in fact, a stronger predictor of performance (Department for Education, 2016[54]). Similar conclusions emerge from linked administrative analyses for England and Wales (United Kingdom), which find that authorised and unauthorised absences in any given school year are associated with comparable reductions in performance at the end of compulsory schooling (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2025[55]).
Further evidence from the United States indicates that unauthorised absences during primary and the beginning of lower secondary education correlate with lower achievement in reading and mathematics, even after accounting for missed instructional time. However, these associations weaken substantially after accounting for background factors, such as socio-economic status, suggesting that unauthorised absences may be more indicative of broader structural disadvantages than direct causes of academic decline (Pyne et al., 2021[56]). Overall, while unauthorised absences may be more closely associated with disengagement and behavioural difficulties (Welsh Parliament, 2022[52]), the evidence suggests that missed instructional time is an important mechanism linking absences to academic performance. However, findings differ across contexts: some studies find stronger associations for unauthorised absences, while others indicate that the total volume of missed instruction is the more consistent predictor of performance.
The reason for absence may signal different underlying issues, but it does not always correspond to the magnitude of learning loss. Several studies have moved beyond the administrative distinction between authorised and unauthorised absences – typically based on school- or system-level rules – to explore the influence of specific reasons for absence. Longitudinal data from Australia, for instance, indicate that absences due to personal or family issues (stress, anxiety or family responsibilities) among 14- and 15‑year-olds are more strongly linked to reduced academic achievement than absences attributed to illness or parental approval (which are typically recorded as authorised absences) (Hancock, Gottfried and Zubrick, 2018[57]). However, a similar analysis from Scotland (United Kingdom) that accounted for unobserved, time-invariant individual traits reveals that various types of absences, including truancy, sickness and exceptional domestic circumstances, are all associated with similar negative impacts on academic outcomes (Klein, Sosu and Dare, 2022[40]).
Overall, while unauthorised absences are often linked to lower achievement due to their associations with behavioural and social challenges, the broader evidence suggests that all types of absences reduce learning opportunities and can hinder academic progress. In many cases, the specific reason for absence appears secondary to the total instructional time missed. Nonetheless, unauthorised absences may signal underlying vulnerabilities, such as disengagement or socio-emotional issues, which warrant targeted support to prevent longer-term academic disadvantage.
Truancy can be an indicator of disengagement linked to weaker performance
Truancy, typically defined as deliberate unauthorised absence without parental approval (Chapter 1), has been consistently associated with poorer academic performance, particularly in secondary education. Evidence from the United Kingdom indicates that students who reported truancy are significantly less likely to achieve strong examination results at the end of compulsory schooling (at age 16) (Bosworth, 1994[58]; Buscha and Conte, 2013[59]). Similar associations are observed using household panel data, where students reporting truancy also demonstrated weaker academic outcomes (Buscha and Conte, 2013[59]). In Scotland (United Kingdom), truancy is also associated with lower academic performance at the end of compulsory and post-compulsory schooling, accounting for a range of individual factors (Klein, Sosu and Dare, 2022[40]).
Internationally comparable data support the picture of substantial effects of student truancy on performance (Figure 3.4). On average across OECD countries, 15-year-old students who reported skipping a whole day of school at least once in the two weeks prior to the PISA test score 30 points lower in mathematics, even after accounting for students' and schools' socio-economic profiles. Similarly, students who reported skipping some classes score, on average, 28 points lower in mathematics. These results hold across more than 40 countries.
Change in mathematics performance when students reported that the following happened at least once in the two weeks prior to the PISA test
Note: * Caution is required when interpreting estimates because one or more PISA sampling standards were not met (see Reader’s Guide, Annexes A2 and A4 in OECD (2023[26])). Statistically significant differences are marked in darker colours (all countries) and full diamonds. The differences account for students' and schools' socio-economic profile, measured by the PISA index of economic, social and cultural status. To support comparability across cycles, some countries are excluded (see e.g. Jerrim et al. (2025[60])).
Sorted in ascending order by skipping a whole day of school.
Source: OECD (2023[41]), PISA 2022 Results (Volume II): Learning During – and From – Disruption, Table II.B1.3.44, https://doi.org/10.1787/a97db61c-en.
Importantly, the literature suggests that truancy often reflects broader patterns of academic disengagement rather than acting as an isolated cause of poor performance. Evidence from the Flemish Community of Belgium indicates that learning difficulties and weaker school performance frequently precede the onset of unauthorised absences, and that absences are embedded in broader trajectories of disengagement in which SAP and academic difficulties reinforce each other over time (Keppens and Spruyt, 2019[39]). This aligns with broader findings, which reveal that truancy is often part of self-reinforcing cycles in which academic difficulties both contribute to and are exacerbated by SAP.
Absences can affect other students’ attendance through spillover effects
Beyond its impact on individual students, absences can also affect academic performance at the classroom level. Early evidence from the United States, although using a small sample, suggests that student absences not only negatively affect their own academic achievement, but also disrupt classroom routines and lower peer performance by affecting instructional pacing and classroom dynamics (Monk and Ibrahim, 1984[61]). More recently, analyses from a large urban school district in the United States indicate that primary school classrooms with higher shares of unauthorised absences have lower average achievement in reading and mathematics, even after accounting for student background, teacher characteristics and neighbourhood factors (Gottfried, 2011[62]). Subsequent work demonstrates that as the proportion of chronically absent students in a classroom increases, overall academic performance declines (Gottfried, 2015[63]). While these studies account for a range of student, teacher and contextual factors, the findings remain correlational and may partly reflect underlying characteristics that jointly influence both absences and achievement.
Furthermore, models using classroom and student fixed effects reveal that these spillover effects persist even after accounting for a student’s own attendance. Students who attend regularly perform worse academically when they are taught in classrooms with higher overall absence rates, suggesting that absences generate collective learning losses that extend beyond individual behaviour (Gottfried and Ansari, 2022[29]; Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]). These findings highlight the importance of addressing SAP not only at the individual level but also reinforce the need for classroom-level strategies.
Differences in the academic consequences of absences across student groups
The academic consequences of absences are not evenly distributed across student groups. A growing body of evidence examines whether certain groups of students are more vulnerable to the effects of missed schooling, either because they are more likely to experience SAP or because absences have more severe academic consequences for them. Overall, the literature suggests that while absences are detrimental to academic performance across all groups, the magnitude and mechanisms of these effects may vary by students’ characteristics, such as socio-economic background, prior achievement and special education needs (SEN).
Effects of socio-economic status are often heterogeneous
Several studies examine whether an advantaged socio-economic background can act as a buffer against the impact of SAP and compensate for learning losses. Evidence from the United States indicates that attendance in early schooling improves early cognitive development, particularly literacy and for socio‑economically disadvantaged students (Ready, 2010[64]). While the disadvantaged students started with lower literacy scores than their advantaged peers, those with regular attendance made greater gains. Similarly, an analysis from North Carolina (United States) indicates that student absences during primary and early lower secondary education have a larger negative impact on reading achievement among low‑income students and English language learners (Gershenson, Jacknowitz and Brannegan, 2017[20]). This reinforces the idea that disadvantaged groups are more vulnerable to the effects of missed schooling.
However, studies from other contexts complicate this picture. Early evidence from the United Kingdom suggests that the relationship between attendance at age 15 and attainment at age 16 does not differ across social groups, indicating that these social factors do not strongly moderate the attendance‑achievement link (Fogelman, 1978[65]). Studies from Australia find limited moderation effects by socio-economic background once prior achievement and background characteristics are accounted for (Hancock et al., 2017[66]; Mooney, Redmond and Kaambwa, 2022[67]). In Scotland (United Kingdom), linked administrative data reveal that absences affect attainment in high-stakes examinations across all socio‑economic groups, with little evidence of a “double disadvantage” (where disadvantaged students would be disproportionately harmed by additional absences) (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[23]; Klein and Sosu, 2024[68]). The findings of no moderation by socio-economic background were confirmed in analyses of the impact of absences on achievement by household income for England (United Kingdom) (Klein et al., 2024[37]). Similarly, in Ireland, evidence indicates that advantaged socio-economic background cannot successfully buffer the negative effects of absences (Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]). However, an exception concerns sickness-related absences in Scotland (United Kingdom), which appear to have more adverse academic consequences for disadvantaged students, potentially reflecting unequal access to compensatory support (Klein and Sosu, 2024[68]).
Internationally, socio-economic background accounts for part of the observed differences between long‑term absence and mathematics performance. On average across OECD countries, students who reported that they had missed school for more than three consecutive months score 48.9 points lower in mathematics (Figure 3.5). This difference decreases to 34.7 points once students' and schools' socio‑economic profiles are accounted for. While this pattern is observable in all analysed countries, only in seven countries is the reduction large enough (and the standard errors small enough) to be significant. These findings suggest that part of the association between long-term absence and performance reflects underlying socio-economic differences between students. Further research is needed to shed more light on this topic, including by considering additional factors, such as those presented in the models in Chapter 2.
Change in mathematics performance when students reported that they had missed school for more than three consecutive months
Note: * Caution is required when interpreting estimates because one or more PISA sampling standards were not met (see Reader’s Guide, Annexes A2 and A4 in OECD (2023[26])). Statistically significant differences are marked in darker colours and full diamonds. Students' and schools' socio-economic profiles are measured by the PISA index of economic, social and cultural status.
Sorted in ascending order by the difference after accounting for students' and schools' socio-economic profile.
Source: OECD (2023[41]), PISA 2022 Results (Volume II): Learning During – and From – Disruption, Table II.B1.3.52, https://doi.org/10.1787/a97db61c-en.
Strong foundation skills and good prior performance play a key role in mitigating the effect of absences
Prior academic performance consistently emerges as a key moderator of the relationship between absences and later achievement. Evidence from the United States, for instance, indicates that low‑performing students experience substantially larger learning losses from missing school than their higher-achieving peers, although absences are associated with negative effects on learning across all performance levels (Aucejo and Romano, 2016[19]). This suggests that SAP exacerbate existing achievement gaps. Specifically, each day of absence leads to substantially larger reductions in test scores for students who were already struggling academically. Weaker students find it especially difficult to make up for lost instructional time, while higher-performing students are better able to compensate (ibid.). This is confirmed by more recent panel analyses from Denmark. Higher-intensity absence (10% or more sustained over three months) has a negative effect on primary school examinations across the performance distribution, but especially at its lower end (Kristensen, Jensen and Krassel, 2020[22]). Shorter absence (5%-10% of missed schooling per month) only has a significant effect at the lower end of the distribution. A simulation study further suggests that eliminating absences altogether would have little effect on top-performing students, but could substantially improve outcomes among lower-performing students (ibid.).
Similarly, longitudinal evidence from England and Wales (United Kingdom) reveals that students following moderate or increasing absence trajectories tend to have weaker academic outcomes later on, even when accounting for background characteristics (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[36]). Together, these findings suggest that absences interact with prior academic vulnerability, amplifying existing learning difficulties.
Internationally comparable evidence further illustrates this pattern. In PISA, 15-year-old students who reported missing school for more than three consecutive months are more likely to score below baseline proficiency Level 2 in mathematics, reading and science. On average across OECD countries, around 25% of students who were not long-term absent score below baseline proficiency Level 2 (Figure 3.6). However, among long-term absent students, this share increases to 50.2%, 45.2% and 41.9% for mathematics, reading and science, respectively. In PISA, proficiency Level 2 is considered the baseline level of proficiency that students need to participate fully in society (OECD, 2023[26]). Students performing below this level have not demonstrated these skills and can complete only the most basic PISA items.
Percentage of 15-year-old students below baseline proficiency Level 2 by whether they reported that they had missed school for more than three consecutive months
Sorted in descending order by long-term absent students.
Source: OECD (2022[35]), PISA 2022 (dataset), https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/pisa-2022-database.html (accessed on 19 May 2025).
Other student characteristics can exacerbate the impact of absences on performance
Only a few studies have explored how individual characteristics, such as gender, ethnicity and SEN, influence the relationship between SAP and academic outcomes. Evidence from England (United Kingdom) using linked administrative and survey data, for instance, reveals that the negative impact of absences on English and mathematics is broadly consistent across different groups (Klein et al., 2024[37]). Overall, the findings suggest that absences are detrimental to academic progress for students across all backgrounds. Boys’ and girls’ performance is affected to a similar degree by absence, with only a modest indication that boys’ progress in mathematics is somewhat more sensitive to absences. For ethnicity, absences are negatively associated with achievement across all groups, but differences in the size of this association among ethnic groups are generally small and often not significant. The analysis also indicates that absences reduce attainment among students with and without SEN, with only modest differences in effect sizes across groups. In some cases, the estimated effects of absences are slightly weaker for students with SEN, particularly those with an Education, Health and Care plan, possibly reflecting more flexible assessment arrangements or targeted support (ibid.).
SAP represent far more than lost instructional time: they are a significant developmental risk factor that disrupts students’ social, emotional and behavioural growth (Klein, 2025[13]). Social and emotional skills normally strengthen through sustained participation in school, yet SAP can consistently hinder this progression and can even affect peers in high-absence environments. SAP are closely intertwined with mental health: internalising difficulties (e.g. anxiety and depression) can both contribute to and worsen with absences, eroding school connectedness, weakening peer relationships and amplifying risks such as self‑harm and clinical disorders. Absences can also heighten the likelihood of externalising behaviours, including aggression and conduct problems, and increase exposure to risky activities, such as substance use and unsafe sexual behaviour, which can extend to later contact with the justice system.
Non-academic consequences of SAP are closely tied to the academic ones. In England and Wales (United Kingdom), for instance, student absences at age 12 increase the likelihood of externalising and risky behaviours, and reduce educational motivation by age 14, controlling for a rich set of background characteristics and prior measures of these psychosocial constructs (Klein et al., 2024[37]). Higher externalising and risky behaviours, in turn, reduce academic achievement. Together, externalising and risky behaviours, and educational motivation mediate about 14% of the adverse effect of absences on academic achievement in England (16% in Wales) (ibid.). This indicates that the negative impact of SAP on academic outcomes is not solely due to learning loss, but also partly driven by changes in students’ psychosocial development.
The potential impact of missing school on social and emotional skills
Social and emotional skills are a subset of an individual’s abilities, attributes and characteristics that are important for individual success and social functioning. They encompass behavioural dispositions, internal states, approaches to tasks, and management and control of behaviour and feelings. Beliefs about the self and the world that characterise an individual’s relationships to others are also components of social and emotional skills. Social and emotional skills play an important role in the development of children and adolescents and, when combined with academic achievement and cognitive skills, form a holistic set of skills essential for success at school and in later life. Social and emotional skills are more than simply enablers of cognitive and academic growth; they are an important developmental outcome in their own right (OECD, 2021[69]). An important aspect of social and emotional skills is that they are malleable, i.e. susceptible to interventions and policy measures (Kankaraš and Suarez-Alvarez, 2019[70]). Children are not born with a fixed set of social and emotional skills, but instead have considerable potential to develop them throughout life (Helson et al., 2002[71]; Srivastava et al., 2003[72]). For example, levels of conscientiousness, agreeableness and emotional stability generally increase with age (Roberts, Walton and Viechtbauer, 2006[73]).
Emerging evidence underscores that absences pose a direct and cumulative risk to the development of social and emotional skills, with effects that extend beyond lost instructional time. Absences can limit children’s opportunities to develop prosocial skills in structured ECEC settings (Goble and Pianta, 2017[74]). In the United States, children who were absent more frequently in ECEC show lower levels of co-operation, assertiveness and self-control by the age of 15 (Ansari and Pianta, 2019[75]; Ansari and Gottfried, 2021[33]). Increased absences in lower secondary education (6th to 8th grade) in California (United States) are similarly associated with declines in growth mindset, social awareness, self-efficacy and self-management (Santibañez and Guarino, 2021[49]). In Italy, certain student groups, such as those from disadvantaged backgrounds, appear particularly susceptible, showing reduced confidence in resisting negative peer pressure and in managing emotions (Bianchi et al., 2022[76]). Evidence from Spain reveals that certain patterns of “school refusal”, such as those driven by combined anxiety, social pressures and reward‑seeking, are further associated with diminished academic self-efficacy (Pérez‐Marco et al., 2024[77]). Importantly, the consequences can extend to peers: some evidence suggests that higher classroom absences are associated with lower individual self-control (Gottfried and Ansari, 2022[29]).
Internationally comparable data suggest that, on average across OECD countries, students who reported they had been long-term absent display behaviours consistent with being less perseverant, curious, co‑operative, empathetic, assertive, stress resistant, emotionally stable and with having a weaker growth mindset (Figure 3.7). While this pattern varies across countries, these conclusions are consistent across most education systems.
Difference between students who reported being long-term absent and those who were not
Note: See OECD (2024[78]) for more details about the indices. Positive values indicate behaviours consistent with greater perseverance, curiosity, co-operation, empathy, assertiveness, stress resistance, emotional control or a growth mindset among long-term absent students. Minima are not statistically significant, maxima are. Values in parentheses display the number of countries with a positive index-point difference.
Source: OECD (2022[35]), PISA 2022 (dataset), https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/pisa-2022-database.html (accessed on 19 May 2025).
The reciprocal links between internalising behaviours and school attendance problems
SAP and internalising behaviours (e.g. anxiety, depression, social withdrawal and somatic complaints) strongly influence each other. The evidence indicates a complex, often reciprocal relationship: internalising behaviours can lead to more absences, but absences can also exacerbate internalising difficulties. The most robust studies point to a bidirectional cycle of influence. Higher rates of absence are linked to increased risks of self-harm and suicidal thoughts, with estimates suggesting a 37% higher likelihood of self-harm and a 20% increased likelihood of suicidal ideation among students with elevated absences (Epstein et al., 2019[79]). In Finland, anxiety is common among students with an early onset of SAP (Hotulainen et al., 2024[38]). Administrative data in Wales (United Kingdom) reveal that students with frequent absences have markedly higher rates of diagnosed neurodevelopmental conditions, mental health disorders and self-harm, signalling that absences can act as an early warning indicator of serious difficulties (John et al., 2022[80]). Longitudinal evidence in the United Kingdom further indicates that poor mental health is associated with increased absences, and higher levels of absence predict later emotional and psychiatric difficulties, reinforcing a cycle between SAP and internalising symptoms (Finning et al., 2021[81]). Moreover, students who miss school are more likely to report poor mental well-being, including feeling under strain, unhappy and depressed, losing sleep over worry, or thinking of oneself as worthless (Attwood and Croll, 2014[82]). The probability of attending hospital with mental health issues more than doubles (increases from 1.82% to 3.77%) when absences increase from 0% to 20%, and nearly triples (increases to 5.27%) at an absence rate of 30% (Office for National Statistics, 2025[83]).
Absences and child mental health are closely associated, and this relationship appears stronger among students facing additional vulnerabilities. In England (United Kingdom), the probability of mental ill health increases with more absences, but more steeply among socio-economically disadvantaged students and students with SEN (Figure 3.8).
Note: Absence measures the percentage of absence from school. Individuals were recorded as having experienced mental ill health if they had attended hospital between 1 April and 31 March, and were recorded as having a diagnosis of one of the following conditions: alcohol use disorder, substance use disorder, schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorder, personality disorders, other mood disorders, bipolar disorder, depression, anxiety, dementia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, eating disorders, conduct disorders, self-harm, and behavioural/development problems. Children were also recorded as having experienced mental ill health if they met the criteria for a stress-related presentation. These are hospital attendances for, or where they exhibited, emotional, behavioural or physiological manifestations of stress. Special education needs refer to special educational needs and disability (SEND). Students have SEND if they have a learning difficulty or disability which calls for special educational provision. They may also have a disability, which is a physical or mental impairment which has a long-term (a year or more) and substantial adverse effect on their ability to carry out normal day-to-day activities. SEND needs can be broadly categorised into four areas: communication and interacting; cognition and learning; social, emotional and mental health difficulties; and sensory and/or physical needs.
Source: Office for National Statistics (2025[83]), The relationship between child mental ill health and absence from school, England: 2021 to 2022, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/childhealth/articles/childmentalillhealthandabsencefromschoolengland/2021to2022 (accessed on 12 December 2025).
Additional findings indicate that emotional and mental health difficulties and absences are reciprocally linked over time, with emotional symptoms and mental health difficulties contributing to missed school and missed school contributing to worsening emotional and mental health problems (Office for National Statistics, 2025[83]; Panayiotou et al., 2021[84]). Early and persistent absences also appear to have lasting emotional impacts, being associated with higher levels of anxiety, withdrawal and depression by adolescence, based on evidence from the United States (Ansari and Pianta, 2019[75]).
Multiple reasons can explain how SAP can contribute to internalising behaviours. Students’ feelings of being seen, heard and welcome in school, beliefs that there is an adult at school who knows and cares about them, students with supportive peer groups at school, and students participating/engaging in school activities (“school connectedness”), can all serve as preventative factors of mental health difficulties (Balfanz et al., 2024[85]; Raniti et al., 2022[86]). School connectedness, in turn, is closely tied to attendance. A stronger sense of school belonging is associated with lower rates of SAP, and students who feel more connected to their school are less likely to miss classes or drop out (Chapter 2).
Conversely, frequent absences can undermine these social bonds by limiting opportunities for peer interaction and participation in group activities. The lack of school connectedness, combined with non‑attendance, can, over time, lead to social isolation and loneliness. In the United Kingdom, primary‑education students with SAP have fewer friendships and weaker peer connections than their regularly attending peers (Carroll, 2011[87]). Similarly, in the United States, chronic absence from ECEC through lower secondary education reduces students’ social engagement by restricting peer interaction and contributing to social withdrawal (Gottfried, 2014[32]). Evidence from Australia also indicates that SAP are linked to weakened bonds: absences among adolescents aged 12-15 are associated with a diminished sense of school belonging (Mooney, Redmond and Kaambwa, 2022[67]). In Finland, loneliness and ostracism are linked to more absences, but internalising symptoms mediate this association, highlighting how disrupted peer relations, absences and internalising behaviours become tightly intertwined (Alanko et al., 2025[88]).
Research also indicates a feedback loop between SAP and school satisfaction: lower school satisfaction at ages 7 and 11 can predict higher truancy at age 14, and truancy at age 14, in turn, can predict a further decline in school satisfaction (Cameron et al., 2025[89]). Schools are often the first places where mental health difficulties are noticed and possibly also assessed and addressed (or the students are referred to other services). SAP, particularly chronic absence, means students are not physically present to receive supports to address mental health difficulties, further reinforcing the cycle of weakened social ties, disengagement and risk for internalising difficulties.
Links between externalising behaviours and school attendance problems
Absences have been linked to higher levels of externalising behaviours. Externalising behaviours are outward-directed actions, such as aggression, defiance or disruptive conduct. Precise reasons driving this relationship are not established. However, one explanation suggests that missing school might amplify exposure to negative peer influences or unsupervised time, such as watching television, playing video games, spending time with friends, or engaging in day parties or substance use. Some of these activities may increase opportunities for family conflict or aggressive behaviours (Heyne et al., 2019[90]; Kearney, 2008[91]).
Regardless of the precise mechanisms, higher levels of absence are associated with increased externalising behaviours. Although some studies suggest a bidirectional relationship (Krause et al., 2025[92]; Wood et al., 2011[93]), US researchers argue for clearer and stronger effects from absences to behaviour rather than the reverse (Ansari and Gottfried, 2021[33]; Ansari and Pianta, 2019[75]). Similarly, in the United Kingdom, Villadsen et al. (2023[94]) suggest that truancy leads to conduct problems, but not the reverse. This pattern indicates that SAP play an active role in the development of behavioural difficulties rather than being solely their consequence.
A related strand of research focuses on “school refusal”, a specific type of SAP that involves a student’s marked emotional distress, such as anxiety or mood disturbance, when faced with attending or remaining in school, typically with parental awareness and in the absence of overt antisocial behaviours (Heyne et al., 2001[95]). In some cases, such as among Spanish youth, high levels of “school refusal” motivated by escape from aversive social or evaluative situations are associated with increased overt and relational aggression, highlighting that “school refusal” can co-occur with other behavioural difficulties that may further impact attendance (Gonzálvez et al., 2023[96]).
Connections between school attendance problems and risky behaviours
In the absence of a structured and supportive environment often found at schools, some students may turn to high-risk activities as a means of coping with stress, boredom or a sense of disconnection (John et al., 2022[80]). Students with SAP may have more opportunities for risky behaviours and encounter other adolescents or adults who are also prone to such behaviours (Rose, 1999[97]). While research on causal mechanisms is rare, it has long been indicated that truancy is the strongest and most reliable predictor of youth substance use, outperforming, for instance, low grade point average and recent sexual activity (Hallfors et al., 2002[98]). In the United States, students who missed at least one school day are more likely to engage in various health risk behaviours, such as smoking, drinking alcohol or using marijuana, compared to those with perfect attendance (Eaton, Brener and Kann, 2008[99]). Similarly, in multiple cities in the Netherlands, truancy is strongly associated with adolescent alcohol use, although it is unclear whether truancy leads to increased drinking or if alcohol use contributes to SAP (Holtes et al., 2015[100]).
More recent evidence comes from longitudinal studies that can establish a stronger unidirectional link between SAP and risky behaviours. In the United States, frequent absences in secondary education are associated with more risky behaviours (e.g. drinking and smoking) and higher sexual risk-taking (e.g. being diagnosed with a sexually transmitted infection) at age 15, accounting for a rich set of background characteristics (Ansari and Pianta, 2019[75]). Similarly, using linked New York City birth and school enrolment records from 2005 to 2013, Yunzal‐Butler, Sackoff and Korenman (2020[101]) analysed a cohort of teenage mothers to examine patterns of school disengagement before conception. The findings reveal that many mothers exhibited school disengagement, marked by frequent absences, indicating that SAP are a risk factor for teenage pregnancy.
Some of these risky behaviours can then lead to involvement with the juvenile justice system. In two metropolitan areas in the United States, for instance, truancy increased the likelihood of juvenile arrest, explained mainly by lower parental monitoring and weaker school commitment among truant youth (Monahan et al., 2014[102]). While these findings may not generalise to broader populations, further research on the associations between SAP and involvement with the justice system in adulthood broadly supports this link (see section Associations with justice involvement, civic engagement and other outcomes).
SAP affect educational attainment not only through their impact on short-term academic and non-academic outcomes, but also by shaping longer-term engagement, progression and completion pathways (Klein, 2025[13]). As discussed before, repeated absences undermine learning, motivation and academic confidence. These effects accumulate over time, increasing the likelihood that students fall off track, fail to meet completion requirements or leave education early. The literature, therefore, conceptualises absences as part of a broader process of disengagement in which academic difficulties, weak attachment to school and SAP reinforce one another (Allensworth and Easton, 2007[103]; Balfanz and Byrnes, 2012[15]).
Evidence also indicates that absences at early ages can have lasting consequences beyond compulsory schooling. Longitudinal studies demonstrate that absences during primary and lower secondary education are associated with weaker academic outcomes in later years, lower educational progression and reduced attainment in adulthood (Gottfried and Ansari, 2022[29]; Liu, Lee and Gershenson, 2021[51]; Simon et al., 2020[104]). These findings underline that absences are not only a risk factor for performance but also an early marker of longer-term educational disadvantage.
The post-pandemic increase in SAP observed in many education systems also raises concerns about future attainment and completion, as larger cohorts of students may accumulate learning gaps and disengagement risks that affect progression trajectories in the coming years.
There are different completion requirements across education levels and systems
Educational attainment depends not only on students’ learning and engagement, but also on the formal requirements used to certify progression and award qualifications. These requirements differ across educational levels and countries and may include completing a specified number of years of schooling, passing final examinations, demonstrating competencies in core subjects, meeting minimum attendance thresholds, or fulfilling continuous assessment requirements.
Figure 3.9 displays that completion in primary and lower secondary education is most often linked to progression and years of schooling, while completion in upper secondary education more frequently depends on passing examinations, demonstrating competencies and meeting assessment requirements. In some education systems, minimum attendance requirements also form part of the completion criteria, meaning that sustained absences may directly affect students’ ability to obtain qualifications. This variation helps explain why absences can affect attainment by reducing performance, by preventing students from meeting assessment requirements, or, in some systems, by preventing them from meeting attendance thresholds for certification. For example, in education systems such as Romania, where progression and completion at upper secondary level depend heavily on participation in national examinations, evidence indicates that absences are closely linked to non-participation in these key assessment milestones (Dalu et al., 2023[105]). School stakeholders reported that students who are frequently absent are more likely to skip examination simulations and preparation activities and, subsequently, to be absent from the final examination, reducing their chances of completing upper secondary education (ibid.).
Number of education systems setting the specific criteria for completing educational levels
Note: Responses are not mutually exclusive. They are based on the following question: “Please indicate the relevant criteria for each level of education (ISCED). Please tick at least one box in each table.”. 45 education systems responded to this item, including 31 from EU countries and 37 from OECD countries.
Source: OECD (2025[106]), OECD Policy Survey on School Attendance Problems.
School absences are a strong predictor of early leaving from education and training
A substantial body of longitudinal evidence links absences to ELET. Early evidence from the United States finds that poor attendance consistently emerges as one of the strongest behavioural predictors of non‑completion, even after accounting for prior achievement and socio-economic background (Barrington and Hendricks, 1989[107]; Rumberger, 1995[108]). Missing school contributes to falling behind academically, but also weakens students’ attachment to school routines, relationships and expectations, increasing the likelihood of disengagement and dropout over time (Allensworth and Easton, 2007[103]).
Evidence from the United States across multiple stages of schooling highlights how absences contribute to progressively increasing risks of dropout over time. Absences during primary education predict later dropout even after accounting for early achievement and family background (Alexander, Entwisle and Horsey, 1997[109]). Chronic absence during the transition to lower secondary education is a particularly strong early warning signal, since students missing a substantial amount of school in the first year of lower secondary education are less likely to complete upper secondary education without targeted support (Balfanz, Herzog and Mac Iver, 2007[110]; Balfanz and Byrnes, 2012[15]). Similarly, longitudinal analyses indicate that absences during early secondary education substantially increase dropout risk, often more strongly than earlier test scores (Allensworth and Easton, 2007[103]).
Additional longitudinal evidence confirms that absences during lower secondary education and early upper secondary education are strongly associated with later non-completion. Longitudinal analyses from the United States reveal that each additional day of absence in early adolescence reduces the likelihood of graduating from upper secondary education, even after accounting for family background and prior achievement (Ou and Reynolds, 2008[111]). Similarly, disengagement indicators, including poor attendance in grades 8 and 9, increase the probability of dropout (Henry, Knight and Thornberry, 2011[112]).
Research emphasises that ELET is a process rather than a single event. Absences interact with academic underachievement, behavioural difficulties and low expectations, forming self-reinforcing trajectories of disengagement that unfold over several years (Henry, Knight and Thornberry, 2011[112]; Rumberger and Lim, 2008[113]; Schoeneberger, 2011[114]). Patterns of increasing or persistent absences over time are particularly predictive of dropout compared to isolated or short-term SAP (Schoeneberger, 2011[114]). Dropout reflects a gradual process of disengagement, rather than a single decision point, with SAP interacting with academic and behavioural difficulties over time.
Evidence from other countries supports these conclusions. In the Netherlands, unauthorised absences accelerate the timing of dropout, increasing the risk that students leave education before completing compulsory schooling (Cabus and De Witte, 2014[115]). In the United Kingdom, truancy during lower secondary education is strongly associated with a reduced likelihood of remaining in education after the age of 16 (Attwood and Croll, 2006[116]; Attwood and Croll, 2014[82]). Similarly, in New Zealand, persistent absence is associated with disengagement, lower achievement and increased risks of leaving education without qualifications, particularly among students experiencing multiple barriers to engagement (ERO, 2024[4]). Findings from Norway also indicate that attendance patterns in lower secondary education are among the strongest predictors of later dropout (Lillejord et al., 2015[117]).
Absences are linked to lower educational attainment and progression
Beyond ELET, absences are closely linked to lower levels of educational attainment and progression among those who remain in the education system. Longitudinal studies reveal that students who are frequently absent are less likely to complete upper secondary education on time, less likely to enrol in post‑secondary education and more likely to leave education with no formal qualifications (Smerillo et al., 2018[45]; Kirksey, 2019[21]; Liu, Lee and Gershenson, 2021[51]; Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]).
Moreover, the consequences of SAP extend far into adulthood. Missing even small amounts of school in childhood can have measurable effects on lifetime attainment. For example, in the United Kingdom, missing five days of school at age 10 is associated with a 0.66 percentage point higher likelihood of having no qualifications by age 42, even after accounting for early cognitive ability, family and socio-economic background, although the relationship may still partly reflect unobserved factors influencing both attendance and later outcomes (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[23]). Similar long-term patterns are observed in Sweden, where sustained or repeated SAP in primary education are associated with lower educational attainment in adulthood, indicating that early absences can have persistent consequences across the life course (Cattan et al., 2022[118]). Similarly, in Ireland, absences at age 9 are predictive of lower entry into higher education, accounting for a range of background characteristics (Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]).
Recent longitudinal studies also reveal that absences predict lower educational attainment independently of academic performance. Truancy in adolescence in the United States is associated with lower educational attainment in adulthood, even after accounting for grades, authorised absences and socio‑demographic characteristics (Cardwell and Tillyer, 2024[119]). Broader behavioural risk indicators, which include absences, also predict lower rates of upper secondary completion, and tertiary education enrolment and completion, underlining the role of attendance as part of wider disengagement processes (Cleveland and Scherer, 2025[120]).
Other evidence reinforces these patterns. In Scotland (United Kingdom), school absences in upper secondary education reduce the likelihood of progressing to further or higher education, with truancy, sickness and total days missed all associated with lower continuation rates (Klein and Sosu, 2024[121]). Evidence from Finland and New Zealand similarly links sustained SAP in secondary education to weaker completion outcomes and disrupted educational trajectories (ERO, 2022[24]; ERO, 2024[4]; Hotulainen et al., 2024[38]).
Possible differences in attainment, and early leaving from education and training across student groups
The attainment consequences of absences may differ across student populations, although the available evidence remains limited. Some studies suggest that unauthorised absences are particularly consequential for students from socio-economically disadvantaged backgrounds, potentially accelerating dropout decisions and amplifying existing inequalities (Cabus and De Witte, 2014[115]; Keppens and Spruyt, 2019[39]). Longitudinal analyses also indicate that students who combine weak prior achievement with repeated absences face especially high risks of non-completion and low attainment (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[23]; Smerillo et al., 2018[45]).
Moreover, evidence from the Flemish Community of Belgium indicates that learning difficulties and weaker school performance often precede unauthorised absences, while each additional unauthorised absence further reduces the likelihood of academic success and increases the risk of later school failure and dropout (Keppens and Spruyt, 2019[39]). This suggests that SAP may contribute to widening educational inequalities by compounding existing academic difficulties among disadvantaged students.
Evidence linking SAP to labour market outcomes is relatively limited, though research from Ireland, the United Kingdom and the United States has shed light on these long-term associations (Klein, 2025[13]). As such, the transferability of these findings to contexts with different institutional structures may be constrained. Moreover, while these associations are documented, less is known about what drives them, particularly the roles of non-cognitive skills, mental health and social factors.
Research linking SAP and employment from England (United Kingdom) suggests that the likelihood of being in sustained employment for 12 months at age 28 decreases by approximately 60% for persistently absent students (missing more than 10% of potential sessions), and by approximately 75% for those who were severely absent (missing more than 50% of potential sessions) (Department for Education, 2025[122]). The analysis accounts for a limited set of controls, including prior attainment, gender, SEN and socio‑economic background.
Other researchers focused on earnings, but the evidence on the relationship with SAP remains mixed. Administrative data from England (United Kingdom) indicate a non-causal relationship between absences and academic performance, which is then monetised (Department for Education, 2025[122]). Using this method, the results reveal that one day of additional absence between grades 7 and 11 is associated with an approximate GBP 750 (EUR 886) (2024 prices) loss in future earnings. One day of absence for a persistently absent student (who misses more than 10% of their possible sessions) is associated with a GBP 650 (EUR 768) future earnings loss. Panel A in Figure 3.10 shows how average earnings decrease with absences in the country. In another model specification, the authors estimate that a one-day increase in absence in grades 10 and 11 is associated with a 0.8% decrease in earnings at age 28 (ibid.). The analyses account for a limited set of controls, including prior attainment, gender, SEN and socio-economic background. Evidence from New Zealand further highlights the long-term income consequences of chronic school absences (panel B in Figure 3.10). Administrative data linking school attendance to labour market outcomes show that by age 25, young adults who were chronically absent (missing at least 30% of sessions) earn substantially less than their peers, with total annual incomes of approximately NZD 16 700 (EUR 9 338) compared to NZD 59 200 (EUR 33 102) for other 25 year-olds. These income gaps widen over time and are driven both by lower employment rates and higher benefit receipt: at age 25, only 58% of those who were chronically absent have wage or salary income, compared to 69% of the total population (ERO, 2024[4]). Finally, sibling fixed-effects models using administrative data from Sweden indicate that absences during primary and lower secondary education reduce earnings over the life course, suggesting that even early disruptions to schooling can impair skill development in ways that accumulate and compound over time (Cattan et al., 2022[118]).
Note: Average earnings at age 28 in panel A are in 2024 prices. Wage/salary income in panel B includes total income, income from wages and benefit receipt. Chronically absent students are those at school 70% or less of the time.
Source: Department for Education (2025[122]), The Impact of School Absence on Lifetime Earnings, Table 8, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-impact-of-school-absence-on-lifetime-earnings (accessed on 9 February 2026); and ERO (2024[4]), Left behind: How do we get our chronically absent students back to school?, Figure 12, https://evidence.ero.govt.nz/media/notdbxih/left-behind-how-do-we-get-our-chronically-absent-students-back-to-school.pdf (accessed on 11 August 2025).
However, other evidence from Ireland, the United Kingdom and United States yields different conclusions. Early research from the United Kingdom shows no association between truancy and income at age 23, accounting for social background, educational ability, poor attendance and end-of-school qualifications (Hibbett, Fogelman and Manor, 1990[123]). More recently, no significant association is found between truancy and income once school achievement, authorised absences and demographic variables are accounted for in the United States either (Cardwell and Tillyer, 2024[119]). The same study, however, finds a significant effect of truancy on educational attainment, pointing to the need for mediation analyses between SAP and labour market outcomes (or outcomes through education more broadly). Similarly, longitudinal analyses from the United Kingdom do not find an impact of absences on earnings at age 42 after accounting for a wide range of background characteristics (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[23]). In Ireland, 25-year-olds who missed 7-10 days of schooling at age 13 earned EUR 241 per week less and those who missed 11 or more days earned EUR 348 per week less compared to those who did not miss school (Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]). However, the differences disappear once background characteristics, including socio-economic background, are taken into account.
However, higher levels of absences during the first decade of schooling are associated with higher unemployment rates in early adulthood. In the United Kingdom, truancy is associated with an increased risk of unemployment after the age of 20 (Attwood and Croll, 2006[116]; Attwood and Croll, 2014[82]; Hibbett, Fogelman and Manor, 1990[123]). However, only one of those studies (Hibbett, Fogelman and Manor (1990[123])) uses multivariate statistical controls to account for other factors. In the United States, students who missed more school are more likely to experience unemployment and to rely on government assistance at the age of 22-23 (Ansari, Hofkens and Pianta, 2020[124]). This association holds for all children regardless of their family background or whether they live in urban or rural areas. Similarly, longitudinal data from the United Kingdom link absences at age 10 with an increased likelihood of being predominantly non-employed (unemployment and inactivity) between the ages of 30 and 42, even after accounting for a set of background factors (Dräger, Klein and Sosu, 2024[23]). About one-fifth of the association between absences and the likelihood of being predominantly non-employed in adulthood can be mediated by differences in educational attainment. Finally, in Ireland, adults aged 25 who missed 11 or more days at age 13 are more likely to have spent time unemployed (on average by two months longer), accounting for a range of background characteristics (Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]).
In regard to other labour market outcomes, administrative data from the United Kingdom reveal that persistent school absence in secondary education is strongly associated with being Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) three years after the end of compulsory schooling (Department for Education, 2018[125]). Similarly, mediation analyses from England and Wales (United Kingdom) indicate that higher truancy can lead to lower academic achievement, which in turn increases the likelihood of unemployment and NEET status (Bradley and Crouchley, 2019[126]). Truancy also has a direct effect on unemployment and NEET, but it is relatively modest. In particular, better examination results can mitigate the adverse effects of truancy: even with high levels of truancy, individuals with strong academic performance are less likely to experience unemployment and NEET status (ibid.). Moreover, in Scotland (United Kingdom), higher levels of absence can increase the likelihood of young people becoming NEET (Klein and Sosu, 2024[121]). Sickness absences, in particular, are strongly associated with a greater risk of NEET status. In one model specification, a percentage point increase in sickness-related absences increases the likelihood of being NEET by 0.4 points. While academic achievement partially explains the relationship between absences and NEET, much of the effect, especially for sickness absences, remains unexplained, suggesting that other factors, such as health or well-being, play a role (ibid.).
Finally, SAP are also linked to the receipt of benefits. In England (United Kingdom), the likelihood of receiving benefits increases 2.7 times for persistently absent students (missing more than 10% of potential sessions) (Department for Education, 2025[122]). This rises to 4.2 times for severely absent students (missing more than 50% of potential sessions), even after accounting for a range of background characteristics. Nevertheless, the results cannot be interpreted as causal. Similarly, in New Zealand, 46% of adults aged 25 who were chronically absent (missing at least 30% of sessions) receive a benefit, compared to 20% of peers in the total population (ERO, 2024[4]). Between 17 and 25, young adults who were chronically absent receive NZD 1 500 (EUR 839) more in benefits than the total population (ibid.). Evidence from Norway further underscores the relevance of absences for early labour market transitions. Studies of apprenticeship recruitment indicate that employers place weight on applicants’ attendance records, prioritising low absence over academic grades (Norwegian Directorate for Education and Training, 2018[127]). Applicants who secured an apprenticeship contract have an average absence rate of approximately 4%, compared to approximately 8% among those who did not secure a contract. This suggests that SAP serve as a negative signal to employers, directly affecting young people’s access to training positions and, by extension, their subsequent employment prospects.
SAP have been linked to a range of adverse health and well-being outcomes after formal education, although the evidence remains limited. Research links SAP with long-term health consequences. Drawing from administrative data in Sweden, absences at age 16, particularly due to sickness, can be a significant predictor of long-term sickness in adulthood, especially among women (Mittendorfer-Rutz et al., 2013[128]). Even occasional sickness absences are associated with an increased risk of later medically certified sickness leave, independent of baseline health, socio-economic background and educational factors. Similarly, data from Los Angeles, California (United States) reveal that students with fewer absences in secondary education reported better physical and mental health in young adulthood (Dudovitz et al., 2016[129]). This relationship holds even after accounting for baseline health, socio-economic background and demographic factors to isolate the effect of absences on subsequent health outcomes. In Ireland, self‑reported physical health at 20 and 25 years declines with increasing absences at age 13, accounting for earlier health status, disability and social background (Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]). In contrast, findings from Aberdeen, Scotland (United Kingdom), do not reveal a clear link between absences and the likelihood of being permanently sick or disabled in midlife (age 50) (Henderson, Hotopf and Leon, 2009[130]). However, in this study, absences are not comprehensively and reliably measured, relying solely on teachers' perceptions of unauthorised absences.
Evidence from New Zealand further highlights increased interactions with the health care system among individuals with histories of chronic absence. By age 20, young adults who were chronically absent are more likely to be registered with a general practitioner than the overall population, and they experience higher rates of emergency hospital admissions, suggesting greater acute health needs despite similar levels of routine primary care use (ERO, 2024[4]).
Moreover, SAP have been associated with poorer mental health. Already in the 1990s in the United Kingdom, truancy was linked to an increased likelihood of depression, even after accounting for social background, prior educational attainment, attendance and qualifications (Hibbett and Fogelman, 1990[131]). More recently in Wales (United Kingdom), administrative data were used to measure persistent absence (more than 10% missed sessions) among students aged 7-16 during 2012-16, with suicide risk tracked through death records up to 2019 (Diogu et al., 2025[132]). Findings reveal that persistent absence is associated with a significantly higher risk of suicide during adolescence and early young adulthood. More broadly, in the Netherlands, higher rates of sickness-related absences are associated with lower mental health-related quality of life among individuals aged 16-26 attending vocational education and training (van den Toren et al., 2019[133]). No significant associations are observed between absences and happiness. However, the Dutch study is cross-sectional and does not account for students’ prior health status, which limits the ability to determine whether absences contributed to health-related quality of life or reflected pre‑existing health differences. Finally, in Ireland, chronic absence (missing 20 or more days of school) at ages 9 and 13 is predictive of depressive symptoms and higher stress levels at 20 and 25 years, accounting for early socio-emotional difficulties and background characteristics (Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]). Life satisfaction at 20 and 25 years of age is also lower among those who were chronically absent at age 13 (ibid.).
Evidence also suggests that SAP and broader forms of school disengagement are associated with increased health-related risk behaviours. Early evidence from the United Kingdom draws a link between truancy and heavy smoking (Hibbett and Fogelman, 1990[131]). These differences remain significant even after accounting for social background, prior educational attainment, attendance and qualifications. Evidence from the United States provides further insights into health-related risky behaviours. Higher levels of school disengagement, which include frequent absences, are strongly predictive of increased problem substance use during adolescence and into early adulthood, even after accounting for prior substance use and other risk factors (Henry, Knight and Thornberry, 2011[112]). Dropout from secondary education partially mediated this relationship, suggesting that disengagement contributes to substance use both directly and through its impact on educational attainment.
Other long-term impacts of SAP focus on involvement in risky or criminal behaviours. In South Carolina (United States), youth officially referred for truancy were at elevated risk of subsequent justice system involvement, including repeated referrals and a progression toward more serious offences (Zhang et al., 2010[134]). Compared to other juvenile offenders, truant youth tended to receive lighter penalties and shorter periods of incarceration. Further findings from Rochester, New York (United States) confirm that school disengagement, including absences, predicts serious delinquency (e.g. violent and property crimes) as well as police contact during adolescence and early adulthood (Henry, Knight and Thornberry, 2011[112]). This association persists from middle adolescence through early adulthood, highlighting the long-term impact of early school disengagement on criminal behaviour. A more recent study from Bristol (United Kingdom) reveals that students aged 14-16 who were absent for 20% or more of the time are more likely to engage in violent behaviour and criminal activities later on (Rollings et al., 2025[135]). These associations persist even after accounting for individual, family and school-related factors.
Evidence from other countries further strengthens this pattern by documenting elevated levels of offending and justice system contact among young adults with histories of chronic absence. In New Zealand, young people who were chronically absent are around twice as likely to be charged with any offence by age 25, with particularly pronounced differences for violent offences (ERO, 2024[4]). They are also substantially more likely to be involved in the corrections system, including higher rates of community and custodial sentences in early adulthood. These elevated risks likely reflect higher levels of offending during the school years and greater exposure to family dysfunction (ibid.). Complementary evidence from Finland indicates that young people aged 18-21, following a trajectory of increasing school absences, are more likely to engage in criminal behaviour during secondary school (Hotulainen et al., 2024[38]).
However, the relationship between SAP and delinquency might be explained by other factors. Evidence from England (United Kingdom) highlights substantial heterogeneity in the link between SAP and later criminal justice outcomes (Jerrim, 2025[136]). Socio-economic gaps in attendance and exclusions emerge early in secondary education among initially high-achieving students and peak around the age of 14-15. These patterns vary by gender and ethnicity, with exclusions and criminal cautions particularly elevated among Black and mixed-race boys. While differences in attendance and exclusions partially explain socio‑economic gaps in adult cautions and sentences, a substantial proportion remains unexplained, pointing to the role of additional structural and contextual factors (ibid.). Similarly, findings from Peterborough (United Kingdom) indicate that the relationship between truancy and delinquency depends on an individual’s predisposition to offend and their exposure to criminogenic settings (Gerth, 2020[137]). The study identified only weak direct effects of truancy on delinquency, suggesting that truancy alone is unlikely to cause offending. Instead, its influence appears to operate through the interaction between personal characteristics and environmental contexts (ibid.). Moreover, Ansari, Hofkens and Pianta (2020[124]) do not find a significant association between absences and criminal behaviour in young adulthood, suggesting that SAP may be more closely tied to educational and economic disadvantage than to deviant conduct.
Another factor that can contribute to the association between SAP and delinquency is, as mentioned earlier, ELET. Among adolescents who dropped out of school in Korea, higher levels of school disengagement are associated with increased delinquent behaviour after education (Bae, 2020[138]). School disengagement also partially explains how adverse childhood experiences contributed to delinquency (ibid.). However, these findings are specific to dropouts and may not be generalisable to all youth or those who remain in school.
Evidence also relates SAP with less serious risky behaviours and with being victims of crime. In London (United Kingdom), truancy during adolescence (ages 12-14) is associated with non-violent crime and problem drinking in later adulthood, even after accounting for a comprehensive set of environmental and individual childhood risk factors (Rocque et al., 2016[139]). In New Zealand, young adults who were chronically absent are nearly two times as likely to be a victim of any crime, and nearly three times more likely to be a victim of a violent crime (ERO, 2024[4]).
Evidence on other outcomes is even more limited. In the United States, more absences in the first decade of schooling is associated with lower levels of civic engagement in young adulthood, particularly a reduced likelihood of voting in elections (Ansari, Hofkens and Pianta, 2020[124]). This has been confirmed more recently in Indiana (United States), where attendance strongly predicts adult voting (Slungaard Mumma, 2025[140]). In contrast, evidence from Ireland does not reveal a significant association between measures of political engagement (self-reported interest in politics, level of involvement in political activities and whether the respondent is registered to vote) at age 20 or 25, and absences at age 13 (Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]).
However, longitudinal evidence from Ireland reveals a significant relationship between absences at age 13 and trust in other people at age 20 and 25, accounting for a range of background characteristics (Smyth, Moya and Darmody, 2026[25]). It appears, that SAP can weaken social ties and lead to a lack of trust in others, but further research is needed in this area.
Finally, evidence suggests that SAP can be intertwined with broader patterns of social and economic vulnerability in early adulthood. In New Zealand, young adults who were chronically absent from school are substantially more likely to experience housing insecurity (ERO, 2024[4]). By age 25, around 12% lived in social housing, compared with 4% of the total population, and 2% in emergency housing, compared with 1%, with elevated risks observed consistently from ages 17 to 26. These higher rates of social and emergency housing are likely to reflect broader housing affordability constraints linked to lower incomes among those with histories of chronic absence.
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← 1. Currency conversions in this chapter are based on OECD (2026[141]).
← 2. Negative reinforcement group is characterised by behaviours consistent with escaping from aversive social and/or evaluative situations, and pursuing of attention from significant others (Giménez-Miralles et al., 2021[30]). Mixed group is characterised by behaviours consistent with avoiding of stimuli that provoke negative affectivity, escaping from aversive social and/or evaluative situations, and pursuing of attention from significant others.