Critical minerals in Southeast Asia and India

7. Conclusions: the way forward

Positioning Southeast Asia and India as potential hubs for critical minerals will require investments into national and regional governance of policy makers, to unlock new investment opportunities and ensure the long-term resilience and competitiveness of the region. Based on the landscape analysis, four priorities for policymakers emerge. On transparency, governments should increasingly push for regular reporting on production, prices and stocks, aligning to best practices where applicable, as well as advance joint geological mapping under the ASEAN Minerals Exploration Strategy and ASEAN Minerals Database and Information System. On investment, credible ESG frameworks and blended concessional and private finance have the potential to de-risk refining and recycling projects, and would be complemented by targeted training and cross-border mobility for specialised workers. On circularity, promoting recycling, innovative technologies, clean production models could unlock new opportunities for ASEAN members. On cooperation, embedding critical minerals into trade reviews between ASEAN and India could further inter-regional trade.

7.1. Enhancing resilient supply chains and strengthening critical minerals markets through cooperation, transparency and innovation

Solving policy and capacity gaps in the mining industry through coordinated action, can help unlock new investment opportunities and safeguard livelihoods across Southeast Asia and India. The expansion of industries such as advanced manufacturing, digital technologies and renewable energy has made critical minerals a defining pillar of future economic security. Yet, as highlighted throughout this paper, the current supply base remains narrow, capital-intensive and geopolitically exposed. Despite abundant reserves, Southeast Asia and India still capture limited value from their mineral endowments and – with exception of Indonesia and Philippines – have been constrained in scaling up production facilities. Creating the enabling environment necessary for scaling up production facilities will require a shift from reactive, nationally fragmented strategies to forward-looking, coordinated and sustainable regional action.

7.1.1. From resource endowment to regional competitiveness

ASEAN’s mineral wealth can be a major comparative advantage if channelled towards high-value industrial development. The region has already made notable progress: Indonesia’s downstream nickel industry, Thailand’s EV manufacturing ecosystem and Viet Nam’s emerging rare-earth partnerships demonstrate growing regional capability. Persistent risks, including environmental considerations, politically motivated trade restrictions, and the concentration of downstream processing, elevate the need for cooperation and peer learning.

Still, building on ASEAN’s existing progress with the AMCAP IV and the ASEAN Minerals Development Vision, regional bodies should work with national governments to build capacity in minerals governance – potentially mirroring existing programmes such as the OACPS-EU Development Minerals Programme – and develop a stronger network of knowledge exchange along key aspects of the minerals value chain. Coherence across national frameworks across ASEAN, would signal predictability to investors and position the region as a trusted production hub for responsible minerals and clean-tech manufacturing (Bhaskara, 2025[82]).

For India, closer integration with Southeast Asian partners, starting with an India-ASEAN cooperation plan for critical minerals, would offer both supply-security and market-expansion opportunities. As the ASEAN–India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) is reviewed, embedding critical minerals into the agenda could catalyse new investment partnerships, joint ventures and technology transfer across the region.

7.1.2. Strengthening market cooperation and transparency

Establishing effective and transparent monitoring systems is another key to unlock supply-chain resilience. Transparent markets reduce volatility and enable long-term planning for producers, consumers and governments alike. Governments in the region could work with industry and stock exchanges to encourage regular reporting on production, prices and stocks, facilitating the development of deeper financial markets for key minerals (Prakash, 2025[83]). Instruments such as Canada’s NI 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects and Australia’s JORC Code show how regulatory frameworks can make data on production and reserves more accessible to the public. Greater transparency allows producers and consumers to hedge price risks, plan investments and negotiate fairer contracts, while policymakers can better anticipate risks and design targeted support measures.

Joint geological mapping also represents an important step forward, and national government across ASEAN need to come together to meet the goals laid out in the ASEAN Minerals Exploration Strategy. By providing online and up to date data on: basic geoscience information; mineral exploration tenures; exploration activities and expenditure, national government can encourage mineral exploration investment and contribute to global price transparency. Public-data initiatives of this kind should be developed incrementally, with priority given to datasets already being widely used across ASEAN member states and datasets that can be linked to the ASEAN Minerals Database and Information System or other international frameworks.

7.1.3. Mobilising investment and skills for value addition

Mobilising new capital will require credible ESG frameworks, predictable regulation and mechanisms to de-risk private investment. Southeast Asia’s attractiveness for FDI in manufacturing provides a solid foundation for scaling up mid- and downstream activities. However, project financing for extractives and processing has tightened globally, particularly for ventures subject to environmental scrutiny (UNCTAD, 2025[24]). Multilateral development banks and regional financial institutions could play a catalytic role by blending concessional and private finance for sustainable mining, refining and recycling projects.

Beyond capital, skills and technology are the critical bottlenecks. While ASEAN has made a good start to bridge the gap between production capacity and innovation, challenges remain, including the need for advanced technologies, skilled labour and strategic partnerships. The region would benefit from targeted training programmes in mineral processing, refining and waste management. Facilitating the movement of specialised workers and researchers across borders – for example, via active partnerships with other East Asia Summit countries such as Australia, Japan, Korea and India – would accelerate knowledge transfer and innovation in areas such as high-purity refining, battery chemistry and clean-smelting technologies.

7.1.4. Advancing circularity and innovation

A sustainable supply strategy should incorporate recycling and new innovations in recovery to significantly reduce pressure on primary extraction. By 2040, recycled quantities of copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt could meet up to a third of projected demand (IEA, 2024[6]). Scaling up secondary supply chains would improve resource security for import-dependent economies such as Singapore and India while reducing the environmental footprint of the region’s industrialisation.

Technological advances – from sodium-ion batteries to improved mineral recovery and substitution – can further ease supply constraints. The IEA estimates that an accelerated global adoption of lithium-iron phosphate chemistries and sodium-ion batteries could reduce mineral demand for EV batteries by around 13% in 2030 and 18% in 2050 compared to the NZE Scenario’s base case (IEA, 2024[52]). Encouraging research partnerships between universities, industry and regional innovation funds could foster a pipeline of cleaner, more efficient technologies, aligning industrial upgrading with the energy-transition agenda.

7.2. Towards a cooperative regional architecture

ASEAN is well positioned to lead regional dialogues on critical minerals. Leveraging its convening power within the East Asia Summit and its dialogue partnerships with Australia, India, Japan and the United States, the organisation has the reach to benefit the collective needs of the ASEAN member states. The endorsement of AMCAP IV is also timely, providing policy makers additional momentum to enact new programmes that are aligned to AMCAP’s short-term goals.

Practical steps going forward would be to make sure activities across the programme areas of AMCAP-IV are being actively pursued by all ASEAN member states, ensuring that strategies are anchored in World Trade Organization principles, and building upon existing initiatives such as the ASEAN Minerals Exploration Strategy, the ASEAN Mineral Information System, and the Work Programme on Improving ASEAN Capacities in Mineral Governance.

Southeast Asia and India stand at a pivotal juncture. The choices made today – on transparency, cooperation and sustainability – will shape their role in the global economy for decades to come. The region’s objective should not be self-sufficiency, but strategic interdependence: diversified, transparent and equitable value chains linking trusted partners across the Indo-Pacific.

By aligning industrial policy with environmental and social priorities, mobilising investment in sustainable mining and recycling, and fostering open trade anchored in shared rules, ASEAN and India can turn their resource endowments into engines of inclusive growth. In doing so, they will not only strengthen their own economic security but also make an essential contribution to a global energy transition that is both sustainable and fair.