Economists often seek to estimate unobserved variables, representing “equilibrium” or “expected” values of economic variables, as benchmarks against which observed, realised values of these variables may be evaluated. Such comparisons are often used as economic policy indicators, for example the output gap, as measured by the ratio of actual to potential GDP, is commonly used as a measure of excess demand in assessing inflation pressures. To estimate these unobserved variables, a popular approach is the so-called semi-structural approach which includes: the Hodrick Prescott multivariate filter (developed by Laxton and Tetlow, 1992) and the Kalman filter (see, among others Harvey, 1992 and Cuthberson et al., 1992). This paper shows that the two approaches are closely linked, and specifically, it explains how to reproduce theHodrick Prescott multivariate filter using the Kalman filter. Being able to do so has at least two possible advantages. First, while the traditional HPMV filter ...
Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables
The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches
Working paper
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Abstract
In the same series
-
Working paper20 September 2024
-
5 September 2024
-
5 September 2024
Related publications
-
Working paper20 September 2024