Applying Behavioural Science in the Italian Public Administration

Glossary

ABCD Framework	Framework where Attention, Beliefs, Choice and Determination influence behaviour
Affect heuristic	A mental shortcut where people rely on their immediate emotional reactions when making judgements and decisions
Ambiguity aversion	The tendency to favour the known over the unknown
Anchoring	The tendency to over-rely on one piece of information, typically the first piece of information, when making decisions
Automation bias	The tendency to defer to systems automatically without adequate scrutiny
Bounded rationality	The concept that people often make decisions under constraints of limited information, time, and mental bandwidth, leading them to use heuristics or rules of thumb to make the best decision they can under the circumstances.
Calibrate forecasts	The process of prompting civil servants to make concrete forecasts and provide feedback on the accuracy of their forecasts so they can calibrate their judgement.
Case conference	When multiple reviewers first decide on a decision independently and then develop a consensus
Choice architecture	The way in which options are presented to decision makers, which can influence the choices they make, often without restricting options or significantly changing incentives.
Catastrophising	The tendency to imagine or expect the worst possible outcomes, even when they are unlikely
Cognitive bandwidth	The brain’s capacity to actively process 7 ± 2 pieces of information at once
COM-B	Framework where Capability, Opportunity and Motivation combine to produce Behaviour
Competitor neglect	The tendency to over-rely on one’s own data and internal perspective while under-weighting external evidence about competitors and the broader competitive environment.
Confirmation seeking	The tendency to ignore or overlook evidence that contradicts one's views
Confirmation bias	The tendency to selectively consider evidence that supports existing beliefs and overlooking contradictory evidence
Consider the Opposite	A structured challenge to assumptions by asking “What are some reasons that our initial judgment might be wrong?” and providing the best available evidence why.
Curse of knowledge	The tendency for experts to overestimate how familiar non-experts are with their subject matter.
Decision-hygiene protocols	Protocols such as case conferences where multiple reviewers first decide independently and then develop a consensus, relative judgements that assess options relative to each other, and algorithms that support, but never replace, human decision making.
Descriptive norms	Norms about how people do behave
EAST	Framework which seeks to make behaviour Easy, Attractive (or, Attention-grabbing), Social and Timely
Endowment effect	The tendency for people to value things more highly once they perceive them as their own, leading to a reluctance to trade or relinquish them.
Formality effect	The tendency for people to pay more attention to more formal, serious communications
Go/no-go decisions	Binary choices about whether to proceed with or halt an action, project, or investment based on predefined criteria or available evidence
Groupthink	The process in which suboptimal decisions are made by a group because its members do not want to express opinions, suggest new ideas, etc. that others may disagree with
Halo effect	The tendency to let positive impressions in one area unjustifiably influence judgements about unrelated capabilities
Heuristics	Rules of thumb or mental shortcuts which are used under conditions of uncertainty
High quality evidence	Further research is very unlikely to change our confidence in the estimate of effect. Table 1.2. GRADE strength of evidence framework
Illusion of similarity	The tendency for people to overestimate how representative their own views are of the population
Implementation intentions	Structured plans for when and how learners will apply their learning in the days, weeks and months post-training
In-group favouritism	The tendency for people to prefer others who share superficial traits with themselves
Injunctive norms	Norms about how people are expected behave
Loss aversion	Over-weighting the value of safe, incremental changes over riskier options with greater expected value.
Low quality evidence	Further research is very likely to have an important impact on our confidence in the estimate of effect and is likely to change the estimate. Table 1.2. GRADE strength of evidence framework
Messenger effect	The tendency for people to evaluate the credibility of evidence based on irrelevant attributes of the source of the information rather than the merits of the evidence
Mind projection fallacy	The tendency for people to assume their subjective interpretation of the world describes objectively what it is like for other people
Moderate quality evidence	Further research is likely to have an important impact on our confidence in the estimate of effect and may change the estimate. Table 1.2. GRADE strength of evidence framework
Moral prompts	Nudges that remind people of appropriate behavior and activate moral standards before they might act dishonestly
Noise	Unwarranted, random variation in decisions that lead to inconsistent outcomes in situations where consistency is expected
Optimism bias	The tendency to systematically underestimate costs while overestimating benefits
Ordering effects	The tendency to score the same response differently depending on the sequence it is reviewed
Overconfidence	The tendency for people to overestimate their knowledge and abilities in a certain area
Peak-end rule	The tendency to judge a process by the experience at its peak and its end
Planning fallacy	The tendency to predict that projects will be implemented as planned, even when similar projects have historically not gone according to plan
Pre-mortems	An exercise during the project planning phase where teams imagine that the project has already ended in failure, and they need to understand why
RCT	Randomised Controlled Trial
Recency and availability heuristic	The tendency to overestimate the importance or likelihood of events that are recent or easily recalled
Red Teams	A team at arms-length from the project who challenge its assumptions, evidence and decision making.
Reference class forecasting	A method of estimating project implementation based on the outcomes of similar past projects (the reference class)
Risk aversion	The tendency to prefer options with certain outcomes over those with uncertain outcomes
Risk seeking	The tendency to prefer riskier options over more certain outcomes
Salience	The tendency for more noticeable or prominent features to disproportionately influence attention and decision making
Self-interested or motivated reasoning	The tendency to interpret information in ways that support one’s own interests, goals, or prior beliefs
Short-term focussed	The tendency to over-weight short-term costs at the expense of potential longer-term benefits
Sludge	Excessive or unjustified frictions, burdens, or administrative barriers that make it harder for individuals, including civil servants, to perform a desired behaviour.
Smart anchors	Anchors based on reference class forecasts and which nudge project managers to set more realistic expectations of success.
Social desirability bias	The need for people to present themselves favourably which may lead to them under-reporting sensitive issues.
Sunk cost thinking	The tendency to continue implementing ineffective policy or projects based on money already spent and giving too little weight to future costs and benefits
Theory-of-change	A methodology for planning, monitoring, and evaluating an initiative
Very low-quality evidence	Any estimate of effect is very uncertain Table 1.2. GRADE strength of evidence framework
Wisdom of crowds	Taking the average of multiple estimates to estimate an outcome.