16 OECD Member countries have actively participated in the Migration Anticipation and Preparedness (MAP) Task Force. The current overview of forecasting practices is mainly based on responses to a questionnaire distributed to these countries, supplemented by selected examples from other OECD Members. Table 2.1 provides a snapshot of the current forecasting practice, detailing which countries are engaged in forecasting and in which migration areas. At least 13 OECD countries are conducting regular forecasting exercises to predict asylum applications. Despite growing interest on the policy agenda in many OECD countries, forecasting irregular border crossings remains underdeveloped. To date, only Sweden and the United States provide such predictions. Most EU countries, however, use the Frontex Common Integrated Risk Assessment Model (CIRAM) for anticipating irregular migration, but it does not estimate future flows directly.
Eight countries forecast labour migration on an annual basis, while five do so for international students and only four for family migrants. Sweden and the United States are conducting regular forecasting exercises for all categories and Norway for all but irregular border crossings. The United Kingdom has also done forecasting for almost all categories but as one‑off exercises. Canada and France are considering expanding their routine forecasting work to all categories, while Japan anticipate doing this only for regular migration categories.
Additional information drawn from an Ad Hoc Query launched by Finland in 2024 on “forecasting methods of future migration trends” to which 21 EU member states have responded including 12 OECD Member or candidate countries (BEL, BUL, HRV, CZE, EST, FIN, HUN, LVA, LTU, PRT, SVK, SVN).1 From this list the majority of countries, except Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania make use of methods or models for predicting or analysing future migration trends but most of them are only focussing on Asylum application. Czechia, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic use Frontex’s CIRAM (Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model) 2.1 or 3.0 to analyse migration risks.2 Belgium has developed its own model. No country reported modelling regulated migration flows such as study, labour or family migration on a regular basis.