The remarkable increase in life expectancy is one of the greatest achievements of the last century. Lives continue to get longer, and this trend is predicted to continue although the pace of improvement in old age has slowed recently. In 2024, remaining life expectancy at age 65 averaged 18.5 years for men and 21.6 years for women. The figure was highest for women in Japan (24.9 years) and for men in Australia (20.9 years) and lowest for women in Mexico and Türkiye (below 19.0 years) and men in Latvia and Lithuania (both 15.0 years). On average across OECD countries, remaining life expectancy at age 65 is projected to increase by 3.7 years among women and 4.2 years among men by 2065.
Pensions at a Glance 2025
OECD and G20 Indicators
Remaining life expectancy at 65 significantly contributes to well-being at older ages. It also influences the finances of retirement-income systems. In 2024, on average in OECD countries, women aged 65 could expect to live until age 86.6 and men until 83.5 (Figure 6.2). The highest levels are found in Japan for women, at 24.9 years. Australia, France, Korea and Spain also above 23.0 years. For men Australia, France, Japan and Switzerland are all at 20.0 years or above. The lowest levels for women are in Hungary (19.0 years), Mexico (18.3 years) and Türkiye (18.8 years). Hungary (15.3 years), Latvia (15.0), Lithuania (15.0 years) and Türkiye (15.2 years) have the lowest levels for men.
Life expectancy is projected to continue to increase. Women in Japan are projected to live another 29.2 years on reaching age 65 in 2065, followed by Korea (27.8 years). By contrast, remaining life expectancy at 65 in 2065 for women in Mexico would equal 21.9 years and 22.8 years in both Hungary and Latvia (Figure 6.3). For men there is less variation between countries than there is for women. Australia will have the longest life expectancy at age 65 in 2065 (24.4 years), followed by Japan (24.2 years) and Switzerland (24.0 years). By contrast, Latvia and Lithuania (both 19.5 years) are ranked at the bottom.
The gender gap in life expectancy at age 65 is predicted to be between almost two and four years in favour of women in nearly all OECD countries in 2065. Larger gender gaps of five years are observed in both Japan and Korea. The smallest forecasted gender gap of 1.5 years is in Chile, Mexico and New Zealand.
The above numbers refer to period life expectancy, which measures life expectancy (current or projected) based on mortality rates for people of different ages at a given time (2024 or 2065 here), who hence belong to different birth cohorts. By contrast, cohort life expectancy is based on the projected mortality rates that would apply to given birth cohorts. It thus takes account of projected improvements (after 2024 or 2065) that would benefit these cohorts. On average, these cohort estimates add 1.0 years for women aged 65 in 2065 and 0.7 years for men compared with period life expectancy in these years (Figure 6.3).
Improvements in remaining life expectancy at age 65 has recently slowed from a period of fast longevity gains. The trend in the pace of old-age life‑expectancy peaked in the mid‑2000s (Figure 6.4) for both men and women. This slowdown leads to an estimated structural break in the series after 2012 in the OECD on average. Between the mid‑1990s and 2012 the increasing trend in life expectancy at age 65 was fast at around 1.6 years for men per decade and 1.4 years for women, an acceleration from 0.9 and 1.1 years per decade before, respectively. Since about 2012, this pace has almost halved at 0.9 and 0.8 years per decade for men and women, respectively.
Definition and measurement
Period life expectancy is defined as the average number of years that people of a particular age could expect to live if they experienced the age‑ and sex-specific mortality rates prevalent in a given country in a particular year: in this case, 2024 and 2065. Since the determinants of longevity change slowly, life expectancy is best analysed over a long-time horizon. Cohort life expectancy takes account of the projected changes in mortality estimates for a given cohort.
Further reading
OECD (2021), Pensions at a Glance 2021: OECD and G20 Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ca401ebd-en.
Whitehouse, E. (2007), “Life‑Expectancy Risk and Pensions: Who Bears the Burden?”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 60, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/060025254440.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.
Note: Period life expectancy computed from mortality rates that apply in a specific point in time, here 2024, rather than to a specific birth cohort.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.
Annual change in remaining life expectancy at age 65, in years
Note: The breaks are significant at the 99% confidence level. To limit interferences from short-term fluctuations in change in period life expectancy, the breaks are estimated on the Hodrick-Prescott filtered trend series (lambda=100).
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.