OECD Economic Surveys: Argentina 2025

Recognising that weak fiscal fundamentals have been at the core of Argentina’s macroeconomic instability for years, a new administration embarked on a significant fiscal consolidation process as of December 2023. The marked fiscal adjustment put an end to years of monetary financing, which was instrumental for gradual disinflation. Inflation and market expectations have now declined to levels that Argentina has not seen in years (Figure 2).

Although fiscal consolidation weighed on domestic demand in the first half of 2024, economic activity rebounded in the second half of the year. The economic recovery now seems firmly underway and is expected to gather momentum in 2025 (Table 1). GDP is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2025 and by 4.3% in 2026. The removal of most currency and capital controls in April 2025 will support further improvements in economic sentiment and investment.

In their successful attempts to engineer a rapid turnaround of the public finances, fiscal authorities focused initially on measures that did not require congressional approval. This included improvements in public spending efficiency but also discretionary cuts in capital spending which, if maintained over a long period of time, may have damaging effects on the quality of infrastructure and productivity growth in the long term. While improving Argentina’s fiscal position in the coming years is as a precondition for re-gaining access to international capital markets, fiscal policy will require further fine-tuning to maintain fiscal prudence while boosting potential growth.

Primary budget surpluses have been recorded almost every month in 2024, something Argentina had not seen since 2010. The primary fiscal surplus reached 1.8% of GDP in 2024, a significant turnaround from the 2.9% deficit observed in 2023 (Figure 3). The successful fiscal adjustment has already led to a significant drop in Argentina’s country risk premium. For 2025, fiscal authorities target a 1.6% primary surplus. A package of tax measures approved in June 2024 is already helping to improve fiscal outcomes in the near-term.

Beyond the significant achievements already made, scope remains for further reforms both on the spending and the revenue side of public accounts. Argentina’s public expenditure is high in international comparison and there is scope for enhancing spending efficiency in several areas. One avenue for further progress is to continue cutting back inefficient subsidies. Another area where Argentina stands out is its sizeable public sector, despite recent staff cuts at the federal level, while perceptions of public services are weak. Digitalisation could create opportunities to reap further efficiency gains in the public sector. Improving the execution of public works while sharing some of the risks with the private sector could be another source of fiscal savings.

Argentina’s tax system is complex and includes a plethora of distortionary instruments. Continuous increases in public spending over the years have been partly financed by new distortionary taxes, often meant to be temporary and to respond to short-term urgent financing needs. These have left their mark on investment and consumption decisions and the allocation of resources across the economy.

Phasing out the most distortive taxes requires identifying alternative revenue sources, so as not to jeopardise on-going fiscal consolidation efforts. Expanding the personal income tax base holds significant potential for raising revenues in a progressive way and would allow reducing other taxes whose distributional effect is unclear. Eliminating/reducing VAT exemptions and reduced rates could bring additional fiscal revenues. Tax compliance could be improved by strengthening and modernising the tax administration, including through improvements in information systems. Besides challenges with compliance, corporate taxes are characterised by targeted tax regimes for specific sectors and locations, which could be re-assessed.

Argentina’s fiscal federalism features a significant imbalance between provinces own resources and their expenditures. As a result, a complex system of intergovernmental transfers has been developed to distribute federal tax revenues to the provinces. Revenue sharing with provinces does not necessarily reflect their population weight or spending needs. These automatic transfers are complemented by discretionary transfers that have frequently been used to create political coalitions. Improving the structure of the federal-provincial transfer mechanisms once the public finances have been put on a more sustainable footing would help to improve public-sector efficiency and reduce territorial disparities.

Provinces should be encouraged to participate in the on-going fiscal consolidation effort and to comply with fiscal rules. Adherence to fiscal rules at the provincial level is voluntary and two provinces have not yet agreed to these rules.

While poverty rose during 2023 and the early months of 2024, it has since declined markedly as inflation has come down, falling to levels below those observed in 2022. A high prevalence of informality reduces opportunities for low-income workers to receive on-the-job training and move into jobs with higher earnings and greater income stability. Informality also holds back productivity and social mobility. Overcoming the challenges of informality requires a comprehensive strategy.

Restrictive labour market regulations increase the cost of formal employment and may limit opportunities for less productive workers in the formal labour market. Recent changes to the labour legislation aim to strike a better balance between fostering formal job creation and protecting workers. Further improvements could result from accelerating lengthy court cases, which create uncertainty and contingent litigation risk. Procedures for collective dismissals are particularly onerous and severance payments are high in international comparison.

High tax wedges may act as a disincentive to formal employment, especially for low-skilled workers. At about 44%, Argentina has the highest average labour tax wedge in Latin America, above most OECD countries. Almost all of this can be attributed to social security contributions. Lowering social security contributions, especially for workers with low incomes, could improve incentives for formal job creation.

Reforming the pension system would help to strengthen incentives for formal job creation. A pension system that combines a tax-financed universal basic pension with a contributory pillar for those with higher incomes could deliver adequate pension benefit levels while minimising disincentives for formal job creation.

Education and training are the most effective policies to strengthen households’ capacity to generate market income, access formal jobs and reduce social assistance dependency. However, the performance of students in standardised tests has barely improved over time, especially among those from weaker socio-economic backgrounds. Frequent grade repetition and early school drop-out prevent many students from developing their potential. Expanding vocational education and training at the secondary education level could increase opportunities for youths. Close cooperation with the private sector, regular curriculum updates and systematic quality control could help to align training content with changing labour market requirement.

Argentina has much to benefit from the global energy transition, both with respect to the production of renewable energy itself and with respect to key inputs into the transition towards renewables. The country has the fourth largest offshore wind potential in the world, and the largest potential for onshore wind energy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Argentina is also home to 20% of the world’s lithium identified resources and has significant scope to expand production and developing activity in midstream segments of the lithium value chain. To make the most of these opportunities, Argentina needs appropriate support infrastructure and water resource management.

Argentina's arid regions offer ideal conditions for extracting lithium in an energy-efficient and carbon-friendly manner. However, the process demands large quantities of freshwater, raising concerns about water scarcity and potential resource depletion. Strengthening the implementation of the regulatory framework to promote the integration of efficient water management solutions could position Argentina as a leader in responsible resource management and help to attract additional investments.

Regulatory reforms would also help direct investment into technologies of the future. Stronger competition in the generation, transmission and distribution segments of electricity markets, and retail prices that reflect marginal costs would strengthen the development of Argentina’s competitive edge in renewables.

The deployment of renewable energies on a larger scale also depends on improvements in the grid and storage infrastructure. A simplified electricity pricing scheme based on a two-part tariff, one variable and another fixed, could be envisaged to finance grid maintenance and expansion. Regulations for capacity transfer between energy producers should cover and promote battery parks and energy storage systems.

Getting price signals right is crucial to steer investment towards the most efficient projects, including renewable energies. In the past, prices have not always been able to channel resources into the most promising directions. Subsidies for electricity and gas, which are now being phased out, have kept prices low and encouraged overconsumption. These subsidies are one of the reasons why effective carbon rates, which measure the total price of carbon emissions, are low in international comparison. Appropriate carbon prices will be key for Argentina to harness its comparative advantage in activities that will be in high demand in the future.

Recent policy actions to streamline business regulations and reduce trade barriers have led to considerable improvements in the business environment. Reforms should lead to further progress and lift productivity growth, which has declined over the years (Figure 4). For decades, high entry and trade barriers have reduced competition in key sectors. Infrastructure bottlenecks, a complex tax system and slow judicial procedures have added to costs, curtailing competitiveness. Better regulations and lower trade barriers will strengthen competitive pressures and incentives for firms to operate more efficiently. Improving the quality of public services, including through digitalisation, can significantly reduce costs and improve Argentina’s attractiveness to investors.

There is ample room to make domestic markets more competitive. Regulatory processes have been simplified in a short time, but entry barriers remain high in several services sectors, while the effects of regulatory changes on competition are not systematically assessed. Subnational governments would benefit from a strategy to support regulatory quality improvements across all levels of government.

The competition authority could play a stronger role. An independent National Agency for Competition Defense, mandated by law, has yet to be established. The current authority has limited resources. Allowing below-threshold merger investigations could enhance the authority’s effectiveness.

Despite recent progress, trade barriers remain high. Tariffs on some consumer goods and inputs have been reduced recently, but lower trade barriers on intermediate and capital goods could boost competitiveness. Costly non-tariff barriers should be reviewed systematically. Relaxing restrictions to foreign direct investment could improve inflows of capital and technology. Taxes on exports should be phased out.

Infrastructure bottlenecks affect roads, railways and ports. Increasing private sector participation in infrastructure investment and operation would hinge on sound regulatory frameworks. Digital infrastructure deployment could be sped up by streamlining administrative procedures at the local level.

Digitalisation can increase the efficiency of the judiciary. Judicial processes are often long and costly. Fostering digitalisation of the judiciary and promoting schemes for alternative dispute resolution can increase judicial efficiency. Fragmented legislation on integrity in the public sector could be addressed by implementing the revised Public Ethics Law. Establishing a public registry for lobbyists would make regulation of that activity more transparent and fairer.