Agriculture’s future will be shaped by water – its scarcity, its excess, its quality and the stability of the natural systems that sustain it. Across the world, farmers and food systems are facing growing water risks, including more frequent droughts and floods, declining water quality, degraded freshwater ecosystems and shifting rainfall patterns. At the same time, global food supply chains mean that water risks in one region can affect prices and food security elsewhere.
Countries’ ability to anticipate, monitor and manage water risks is becoming central to agricultural resilience.
New tools are expanding countries’ ability to anticipate and monitor water risks facing agriculture, from satellite-based crop monitoring to AI-enabled water quality forecasting. Yet, gaps remain, and how decisions are made is key.
Water risks are growing
Agriculture faces multiple and interconnected pressures linked to water availability, quality and ecosystem health.
Too little water: Drought remains the most damaging natural hazard for agriculture. About 11% of rainfed croplands and 14% of pasturelands face frequent drought, while more than 60% of irrigated cropland lies in areas experiencing high water stress. Water shortages reflect both changing climatic conditions and rising demand.
Too much water: Heavy rainfall, flash floods and waterlogging can be as damaging as drought. In some countries, wheat production is more sensitive to excess water than to drought. Waterlogging affects around 10% of global agricultural land each year, while extreme storms can severely disrupt crops and livestock systems.
Poor water quality: Inadequate water quality due to salinity, nitrates, pesticides and emerging contaminants can depress yields, harm livestock, degrade soils and, in some cases, render water sources unusable for farming.
Degraded freshwater ecosystems: Wetlands, forests, rivers and lakes provide essential services that agriculture depends on, including regulating flows, recharging aquifers, filtering pollutants and supporting biodiversity. Yet freshwater ecosystems are under increasing pressure. Since 1700, the world has lost 3.4 million km² of inland wetlands. As a comparison, that’s about the size of India. The loss of these ecosystems weakens the natural infrastructure that supports resilient agriculture.
A destabilised water cycle: Rising temperatures and land-use change are intensifying rainfall extremes and altering precipitation patterns. Agricultural water management systems were often designed around historical conditions and may no longer reflect current realities.
Water risks don’t stop at borders
In a globalised food system, water risks in one region can quickly become food security concerns elsewhere. Trade helps countries buffer local water shocks or shortages by sourcing food from international markets. But it also means they may unknowingly import risk when they rely on production from high water risk areas. Droughts in major exporting countries can disrupt supply chains and raise food prices. Long-term groundwater depletion in key production regions can threaten future supply stability. Understanding these cross-border risks is becoming increasingly important for national food security strategies.
New tools are changing water risk anticipation and monitoring
Better water risk monitoring can help countries move from reacting to water crises to preparing for them. A set of water risk assessment tools is evolving to improve anticipation and preparedness.
Real-time flood and drought monitoring systems can support earlier responses to emerging risks. Satellite-based crop monitoring can estimate crop water use across large areas. Digital twins of river basins can simulate water management scenarios, while AI-enabled systems can forecast changes in water quality.
Yet critical gaps remain. Groundwater depletion, freshwater ecosystem health and land-atmosphere moisture recycling are still difficult to measure. Many tools also operate at scales that do not align with practical decision-making needs. Data remains fragmented across institutions, sectors and jurisdictions.
Better information does not automatically lead to better decisions
Water risk information is essential, but it is not a silver bullet.
- Tools should represent a good return on investment, given their potential cost to develop and maintain.
- More complexity does not always improve decision-making. Simpler indicators may be more useful where data is limited or where rapid action is needed.
- Transparency around uncertainty is equally important. Forecasts and models can create a false sense of precision if their limitations are not clearly communicated.
Importantly, water risk information is only one input into real‑world choices. Social values, legal frameworks and political priorities also matter.
Ultimately, anticipating water risks is not just about better tools, it is about better decisions.
Governments play a key role
Governments are uniquely positioned to create the conditions under which water risk information can support effective action.
- Public authorities can take a holistic, long-term view of water risks, shifting planning from short-term crisis response to sustainable agricultural resilience.
- Governments can strengthen the data environment. Hydrological, meteorological and water quality monitoring systems are public goods that underpin many risk assessment tools.
- Governments can improve co-ordination and knowledge transfer. Water risks cut across sectors and jurisdictions, requiring collaboration between institutions and accessible information for farmers and other stakeholders.
From water risk to resilience
Water risks are becoming more dynamic, interconnected and consequential for agriculture and food systems. Better risk intelligence can help countries anticipate disruptions earlier, reduce losses and strengthen long-term resilience.
Anticipating and monitoring water risks in agriculture is no longer only a technical exercise. It is becoming a strategic requirement for resilient agriculture and future food security.
