The price of bread, rice, milk or meat is shaped long before products reach supermarket shelves. It begins with the cost of energy, fertiliser, labour, transport and storage.
Global agricultural and fisheries production is projected to expand by 13% by 2035. This signals greater output, primarily driven by productivity gains, but not necessarily greater resilience. Food systems rely on interconnected supply chains from farm to fork, where shocks in one area can quickly spread across the system.
Producing more food depends on stability, not just productivity
Under stable conditions, productivity gains are expected to drive most growth in the next decade, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035. Farmers are projected to produce more from existing land, labour and resources, helping meet rising demand without expanding farmland at the same pace.
However, agricultural growth depends on stability as much as productivity. Conflicts, energy crises, extreme weather and economic shocks can rapidly disrupt costs, supply and demand.
Productivity growth also depends on access. When farmers can’t afford inputs like machinery, finance or technology, production cannot expand even if demand rises. Growth requires both efficiency and access.
Energy shocks can become food shocks
Energy underpins every stage of food production. It is essential for fertiliser production, farm operations, transport, processing and storage. As a result, energy shocks can quickly translate into food insecurity: Higher energy prices increase fertiliser costs, leading farmers to use fewer inputs. This can reduce yields and raise food prices.
If the 33% average increase in energy prices observed in the first half of 2026 were sustained, global grain production – a key staple crop – could fall by 0.9% in 2027. In low-income countries, the decline could reach 1.7%.
The effects extend beyond the farm level. Lower production raises food prices, reduces consumption and pushes vulnerable households towards cheaper and less nutritious diets. This energy price volatility can be a direct driver of food insecurity.
The benefits of rising production will not be evenly shared
Future growth in agricultural production will be concentrated in a limited number of regions. The Asia–Pacific region is projected to account for 58% of additional agricultural output by 2035, with India alone contributing 26%.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to play a larger role, with its share of global production growth increasing to 16%, up from 11% in the previous decade.
But higher output does not automatically translate into higher incomes. Many producers in low-income regions face barriers to accessing machinery, storage, transport, finance and markets. These constraints limit productivity gains, reduce incomes and can constrain future investment.
Farm incomes remain exposed to shocks
Average global gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by 9% by 2035, reaching around USD 3 800. However, this average masks large disparities.
In low-income regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, agricultural workers currently earn around USD 930 per year. This is projected to rise only modestly to approximately USD 1 100 by 2035.
Exposure to shocks increase uncertainty further. If recent volatility continues, there is a one-in-four chance that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than today.
Trade and infrastructure determine resilience
Food security depends on both production and distribution. Open and predictable agricultural trade allows food to move from surplus regions to deficit regions, reducing pressure during local shortages.
However, trade depends on functioning supply chains. Infrastructure such as roads, ports, storage facilities, cold chains and digital systems determines how efficiently food reaches markets.
Stronger infrastructure can reduce losses, lower costs and improve access for both farmers and consumers. It is a core pillar of food system resilience.
Resilience, not just growth, will define future food security
The next decade could bring higher production, rising incomes and more efficient food systems. Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase by 6.5%, remaining below the pace of output growth.
However, these gains depend on resilience. Food systems must absorb shocks before they become crises.
Governments must support productivity, improve access to inputs and finance, strengthen infrastructure, and maintain open and predictable trade. Better data on input costs, stocks, prices and supply chain risks is also essential.
As the global population increases and diets diversify, producing more food will be necessary. Building resilient food systems can help the sector meet demand and ensure gains are widely distributed.
📌 Read more: http://www.agri-outlook.org
