Sérgio Guerreiro has PhD in Tourism. Senior Director for Strategy & Knowledge Management at Turismo de Portugal, in charge of statistics, business intelligence, sustainability, entrepreneurship and innovation.
Member of several international working groups at OECD, UN Tourism and European Travel Commission, being currently the Chairman of the OECD Tourism Committee, Vice-Chair of UN Tourism Committee on Statistics and previously Chairman of the European Travel Commission’s Market Intelligence Group.
Visiting lecturer at Nova School of Business and Economics, Nova Information Management School and Universidad Europea de Canarias, teaching in the fields of International Tourism Policy and Management, Market Trends & Innovation.
Transcript
Host
Welcome to OECD podcast where policy meets people.
Shayne
Tourism has always been one of the world’s most dynamic sectors prior to 2020 and we’re all painfully aware of what happened then that was growing rapidly. It supported millions of jobs and drove development in cities, regions and rural communities around the world, and then almost overnight, in 2020 international travel came to a complete standstill. Today, I’m joined by Sérgio Guerreiro from turismo de Portugal, who has served as chair of the OECD Tourism Committee for the past decade, past 10 years. Sérgio, welcome to OECD podcasts.
Sérgio
Hi. Well, thank you very much for inviting me. It’s really a pleasure to be here.
Shayne
As we were saying, international travel in 2020 came to a complete standstill. I mean, what followed was one of the most dramatic shocks any global industry has ever experienced, with borders closing, planes were grounded, and the entire tourism ecosystem, from hotels to small and local businesses, were suddenly without any visitors at all. So we’re six years on from that, and we see tourism recovering strongly in many OECD countries, but the context is really different. So governments are thinking more carefully about resilience, sustainability and the impact of tourism on communities and on the environment, and then at the same time, there’s new uncertainties that affect the sector. So we’ve got rising geopolitical tensions, including the current conflict involving Iran and the wider Middle East. So that reminds policy makers how sensitive the tourism sector is to global events and indeed, energy markets and traveller confidence. So what have we learned from this turbulent decade, and how are governments rethinking tourism policy for the future?
So again, Sérgio, thanks for joining us today. I mean, from your perspective in Portugal. How did policymakers respond during those first critical months when tourism activity collapsed in 2020 what were some of the priorities in terms of supporting businesses, workers and local communities that depend heavily on a tourism sector that was really collapsing quick?
Sérgio
Yeah, well, that’s an interesting question, because I think I’ve lived in a very deeply way the pandemic, because we look at at this with, I would say, with a purpose, I think, purpose of being supportive to our industry, to deal with something that we didn’t know exactly what were the impacts in the beginning and when it was supposed to be over.
So priorities in Portugal in terms of policy, we wanted to guarantee that our sector would be ready when conditions to travel would be restored, and that’s basically what the government did. We’ve supported companies to maintain their businesses running so supporting the employees and the wages of the companies, but at the same time making funding available for companies to be ready, a lot of education and a lot of information for companies to deal with the pandemic. And I would say one very important block for someone that is related to data is we felt that we understood that data was critical, not only for the tourism sector, but also for the suppliers of the tourism sector, meaning retail companies and so on. And everyone was asking every day when this is going to be over, when will travel be back? And data made us understand that in advance, when we were seeing informations on lifting restrictions, when we started seeing that airline routes were back on track that would give the sign to everyone in the industry to be ready, be back to business and return.
So I think we maintain it very active participant very hard work in the in that times we did promotion when we were not supposed to do promotion, but we did it in a, I would say, very creative way to say this is time to take care about itself and take care about your family, but when everything is restored, we are here for you as a destination. And I think that was very interesting times from the policy point of view and from the acting point of view.
Shayne
And how’s tourism going now in Portugal, has it bounced back? Would you say in the last six years?
Sérgio
Yeah, I think as a result of this strategy, I believe we were one of the first ones to be ready for the recovery. So when airlines come back, interest from tourists was even higher than ever. I think we all understood that without the possibility of traveling, that was something that was meaningful for everyone that travels so that made us recovered. We ended 2022, back to the pre-pandemic volumes.
Actually one interesting thing, we had a strategy, and we have specific goals to achieve in 2027 within our strategy to achieve a certain volume of 80 million overnight stays and 27 billion euros of tourism receipts. And actually we did that in 2024 so even with the pandemic that our best expectations were achieved, and the sector remains very robust. And despite uncertainty that came, as I would say, a rule for the for the way of doing business in our in our sector, dealing with uncertainty.
Shayne
Absolutely, I think resilience in the face of uncertainty is very much the theme of what we’re discussing today. And you’ve been for the last 10 years, the chair of the OECD Tourism Committee. Now we have seen, of course, in that period, you know, a tourism sector very much going forward. But then we saw, as you said, that the pandemic, the covid pandemic, but we’ve also had Ukraine. And now in 2026 of course, the tourism sector is being hit by conflict in the Gulf, and even today, the German Chancellor Mertz is kind of making that link between covid Ukraine, and saying that this conflict right now could be at the same proportions as those other events in the EU Also today. And this is very telling for the tourism sector, is telling Europeans to limit travel or to work from home because of the pressures arising from the energy shortfall that’s potentially there.
So you’ve been in this game, for a long time, but working with the OECD for about 10 years. What is the biggest shift? And I guess what I’m asking is, how has tourism moved from being seen as a growth sector, or primarily as a growth sector, to something more strategic and something that can become more resilient in the face of, as you said, uncertainty and these shocks?
Sérgio
Yeah, actually is a good question when you put it like that, because I think before the pandemic, all of the society, even all of governments, I think the tourism ecosystem as a whole looked at the tourism as first economic sector. So that means money, that means trade and with the pandemic, I think several things shifted.
One is related to uncertainty. Uncertainty actually, after the pandemic didn’t stop, so we came from one to the other. So, this means that policies have to be adaptable. Companies have to be flexible. We have to have several plans, several alternatives. Here, we can bring foresight as a tool to use in the future. At the same time, we start looking at tourism in a different way, because one very important element that happened during the pandemic is that we as locals, we looked at our destination as ours like never before. So, this means that the look and the role that we see tourism playing in the future has to be different, has to be as a tool to improve quality of life of people, both in residents, but also from the ones that travel. So that balance brings, I would say, a new generation of tourism policies, a new way of looking at it.
And how can we transform this amazing economic powerhouse like tourism means is something that brings, actually benefits, tangible benefits, to societies and to communities as a whole? So that is something that we hear and in every Tourism Committee meeting, every government putting social impacts with just we’re just about really work on the social impacts of tourism, that it became actually one output area that we need to work on. How can we maximize the use of policies to improve the social impact of tourism within the communities.
Shayne
Sure, okay, well, let’s pick up on that and dig into it a little bit further. I mean, you wrote an article, actually on OECD Cogito recently, where you describe tourism as being at a turning point. I mean, for many years, as you said, that success was measured largely through growth, more visitors, more spending, more international rivals, but in many destinations, that model also created pressures on housing infrastructure and, of course, the environment.
So for you as chair of the OECD Tourism Committee and working tourism to Portugal, how are policy makers now rethinking tourism so that it delivers benefits, not just for visitors and businesses, but also for the communities that host them?
Sérgio
Well, I think changing metrics is one fundamental thing that we as a committee can play a role in which is if we move from measuring only economic goals and metrics if we move towards social and environmental and that’s what we’ve been doing with our Working Party on Tourism Committee, basically working on sustainability indicators. For example, we are bringing to the table of policy makers actually tools to understand how their policies can impact several dimensions of the sector as a whole, and not only the traditional measures in economic terms. And I think this is becoming one agenda that we have been developing, also with other international agencies on this to create a carry a coherent framework that we can all work within our governments to streamline and to adjust our policies, to actually make these goals real.
So how can we have a better, we are not a neutral sector like any sector, like any facet of our lives. So how can we cope with our environment impacts and at the same time, how can we bring that social which I think brings that the balance over here, how can we bring that social impact in a positive way and making life of everyone better.
Shayne
Sure, yeah. I mean, and concretely, what would you describe as the biggest trade offs for policy makers when we’re trying to balance those economic benefits with, as you say, environmental protection and then quality of life for residents?
Sérgio
I think everything that this also meant, and I think probably I’m not calling it a challenge, but I call it a need, is we moved and we are transforming our policies and our destination organizations from, I would say, marketing focused organizations into destination management organizations, and that makes all the difference in terms of what you do.
So your role is not only to attract, that was basically the destination marketing organization’s role forever we want we need to transform it to someone that manages, and by managing it is using data to take the right decisions. How am I too crowded? Am I to getting this kind of market? How can I tackle seasonality as one of the critical elements of our strategies as a country? And I think we’re all doing that, also diversifying destinations within our countries. I think it’s everyone’s agenda, and something that data and the adequate share of good policies can help us to strive.
Shayne
Indeed, So I mean, you’ve spent years and years working at intersection of strategy, data and tourism policy. We’re actually at the OECD about to release the 2026, edition of OECD tourism trends and policies. So it looks at data and those policy developments across around 50 countries. But I mean, how important is good data for helping governments manage tourism more effectively, especially in a world where conditions can change so quickly?
Sérgio
Well, data, for me, is critical, because it is the difference between opinions and perceptions and facts, and that makes all the difference, because sometimes perceptions also led to mistakes in policies or some restrictions that we are putting in place that will not solve the problem at all. And that gives us a clear perspective on what needs, what deserves action from governments and in which direction. And I think that it’s absolutely critical, and I’m quite satisfied with the work that we’ve been doing for many years here at the at the committee in this field. I think we’re bringing to the table to policy makers good tools to actually support governments in this within this task.
Shayne
And do you have any examples from your experience where better data or better analysis has helped change how tourism was managed on the ground in a destination?
Sérgio
Yes, absolutely. I remember 2017 it was probably, for me, a time of transformation, because my boss came to our to our office and say, well, we will need to streamline sustainability within our strategy, help us to get a data on. So we moved within that strategy. We’ve changed our approach from pure economic development tactics to metrics that put in place economic, social and environmental goals to achieve so that represented, for our sector, a different commitment towards sustainability.
So it was not just descriptive sustainability, like we see in many texts, but what was actually putting into tangible goals to achieve. So it was not about perceptions. It was about facts that we wanted to achieve collectively, and that changed the way that our sector in Portugal looked at these three perspectives. So the roadmap that we’re putting on is basically improving the best that we can do in each one of the dimensions.
Shayne
Unfortunately, we don’t have all day to talk about this stuff. But I mean, as you come up to serving a decade, 10 years as chair of the OECD Tourism Committee, it’d be good to ask you about, you know, what’s ahead of us, the future. So I mean, what developments in tourism policy give you the most optimism for the future?
Sérgio
Well, first of all, we are in a very positive industry, and that is absolutely critical. We’ve been almost doubling, the sector in each 120 years. And I believe this is going to grow, continue to grow. So tourism is part it’s a human need today. So this means that this will continue to grow. So I think for challenges, I think one key challenge that we have, I would say we share as countries, is how can we maintain our identity and our differentiation? Because that is going to be critical for, A – to be competitive in the future , B – to maintain the quality of life of our residents.
And for me, the biggest opportunity for this, and I think that the times that we are living can be, I would say the perfect theater for us to operate is, is the role that tourism can play, for enriching humankind, for promoting tolerance and understanding, and play that role which is not economic at all, but It’s a fundamental social place that tourism plays every day in our lives.
Shayne
Absolutely, and I don’t want to finish this podcast on a negative note, but what still worries you when you consider the long term outlook for the tourism sector?
Sérgio
No, I think that was the point that was saying with authenticity, I think this flow of tourists, demands that we as destinations, manage our destinations in order to maintain this authenticity and a very good experience for the ones that live in the destination and for the ones that visit the destination. And my point on the role of tourism is positive actually, because we were born and actually, we were created as a committee here at the OECD, because of the role that tourism can play for a better future.
Shayne
Well, that sounds like a great note, and very cleverly turning a negative question into a positive one. Thanks, Sérgio, so yeah, obviously tourism, as we’ve heard today, is always sensitive to global developments, and what we’re seeing now is new uncertainty, of course, linked to geopolitical tensions, those energy prices that are bothering us all and those broader economic pressures. So, thanks Sérgio for giving some insight into the lessons that we’ve learned from the past and in your 10 years serving as the chair of the OECD Tourism Committee, and what governments can do as we think about these new risks. So once again, thanks, Sérgio.
If you’ve enjoyed this conversation, you can find more OECD insights and analysis on tourism and regional development on the OECD COGITO blog and also at oecd.org.
Sérgio
Thank you.