GDP growth is expected to be modest at 0.3% in 2023 and to improve moderately to 1.0% in 2024. Government consumption and investment will continue to prop up the economy, before a gradual strengthening of private expenditure due to falling wholesale gas prices and improved global conditions. Headline inflation is projected to slow on the back of declining energy prices and to come down close to target by the end of 2024.
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The UK economy recovered from the COVID-19 shock thanks to emergency support measures protecting jobs and incomes and a rapid vaccine rollout, but is slowing amid persisting supply shortages and rising inﬂation. Fiscal policy has to balance gradual tightening with providing well-targeted temporary support to households who are vulnerable to rising costs of living, supporting growth and addressing signiﬁcant investment needs. Accelerating progress towards net zero is fundamental to enhance energy security. The United Kingdom is among world leaders in reducing domestic greenhouse gas emissions, has a strong institutional framework and a broad political consensus supporting the target to reduce net emissions to zero by 2050.
Vulnerable social groups have been particularly affected by the pandemic and poverty is set to increase as jobs are lost and self-employed see incomes dwindle, accentuating regional differences. The COVID-19 crisis has emphasized the need to re-train and up-skill the population, secure access to affordable housing by reducing bottlenecks to supply and to revive investment.
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2021 Structural Reform Priorities