应对癌症对健康、经济和社会的影响: 中国
Table of contents
癌症是导致中国人死亡的第二大原因，在 2023 年至 2050 年期间，每五个过早（75 岁之前）死亡的人中就有一人（20%）死于癌症。据估计，每年将有 126.63 万人因癌症过早死亡，人口平均预期寿命将比没有癌症的情况下缩短 1.7 岁。
五分之一 癌症导致的过早死亡
1. 估计数的计算方法是将基线情景与没有癌症的假设情景进行比较，因此考虑到了其他疾病的费用。由于未罹患癌症的人寿命更长并罹患其他疾病，这可能会导致一些国家的总体医疗支出增加。
至少有三个因素将推动未来癌症医疗支出的增长。首先，患癌风险随年龄增长而增加。随着中国人口老龄化的加剧，在其他条件不变的情况下，2023 年至 2050 年间，人均癌症医疗支出将增加 125%。其次，减少各国癌症治疗效果差异的努力可能意味着人们存活的时间更长，需要治疗的时间更长，并可能再次患上癌症。这将使同期癌症费用再增加 30%。第三，新药和新技术带来的更高治疗成本会进一步增加总成本。
来源：OECD SPHeP NCDs 模型，2024 年
如果中国能够改善癌症筛查、诊断和治疗，达到经合组织和欧盟国家的最佳生存率，这将...
防止四分之一的癌症过早死亡、
将人口平均预期寿命延长 6 个月、
相当于增加 68 900 名全职工人、
医疗卫生总支出增加 1.0%。
来源：OECD SPHeP NCDs 模型，2024 年
实现针对主要癌症风险因素的国际政策目标，可预防中国约 19% 的癌症病例，并避免 27% 因癌症而过早死亡的人数。
在中国，人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 疫苗的最佳接种率很高，能够提供足够的群体免疫力来消除所有目标类型 HPV 的感染，可预防 91% 的宫颈癌过早死亡，每年可减少 5.58 亿元人民币的癌症医疗支出。
本作品由经合组织翻译。唯一正式版本为英文和/或法文文本。
免责声明: This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD.
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
Note by the Republic of Türkiye The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiye shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Attribution – you must cite the work.
Translations – you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text: In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and the translation, only the text of original work should be considered valid.
Adaptations – you must cite the original work and add the following text: This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.
Third-party material – the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and for any claims of infringement.
You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.
Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shall be Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one.
