15-16  April 2019

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New Analytical Tools and Techniques for Economic Policymaking

OECD Conference Centre (Room CC4)

Agenda 15-16 April  (pdf)

 Opening remarks

Angel Gurria, OECD Secretary-General (video)
Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa
Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist
Martine Durand, OECD Chief Statistician

Moderator: Gabriela Ramos, OECD Chief of Staff and Sherpa

Speakers:

• J. Doyne Farmer, Director of Complexity Economics, Institute for New Economic Thinking, and Santa Fe Institute, and Rebuilding Macroeconomics
  Why do we need new analytical tools and techniques
• Robert Axtell, Chair of the Department of Computational Social Science at George Mason University, and Santa Fe Institute
• Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Chairman, Capital Fund Management (CFM) and Rebuilding Macroeconomics
• William H. Janeway, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge University and Advisor, Warburg Pincus
• Michael Jacobs, Professorial Research Fellow, Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute (SPERI)

Moderator: Lucrezia Reichlin, Professor of Economics, London Business School - Nowcasting (pdf)

Speakers:

• Laurent Ferrara, Head of International Macro Division, Banque de France
  PAPER - When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage (pdf)
  PRESENTATION - When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage (pdf)
  
• Elias Albagli, Chief Economist, Central Bank of Chile
  Real-time VAT data in Chile: Applications for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability (pdf)
  
  

Moderator: J. Doyne Farmer, Director of Complexity Economics, Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford, and Rebuilding Macroeconomics - What is ABM? What are the opportunities and challenges? (pdf)

Speakers:

• Alissa Kleinnijenhuis, Researcher, Mathematical Institute, Oxford, and Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford, and and Thom Wetzer, DPhil candidate in Law and Finance, University of Oxford
  Foundations of System-Wide Stress Testing (pdf)
  
• Torsten Heinrich, Researcher, Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford
  An ABM of the insurance-reinsurance sector: Conclusions for systemic risk, market structure, and the insurance cycle (pdf)
  
• Francois Lafond, Senior Research Officer, Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford
  Automation and bottlenecks in occupational mobility: a data-driven network model (pdf)
  
• Christoph Siebenbrunner, DPhil student, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford
  Money creation and liquid funding needs(pdf)

Discussant:

• Robert Axtell, Chair of the Department of Computational Social Science at George Mason University, and Santa Fe Institute
  

Moderator: David Chavalarias, Director of the Complex Systems Institute of Paris idF - Economics and Network Analysis (pdf)

Speakers:

• Rajan Patel, Technical Specialist, Bank of England
  Textual complexity in bank regulation (pdf)
  
• Gert Buiten, Senior Researcher, and Sjoerd Hooijmaaijers, Researcher, Statistics Netherlands
  PAPER - A methodology for estimating the Dutch interfirm trade network (pdf)
  PRESENTATION - A methodology for estimating the Dutch interfirm trade network (pdf)
  
• Thomas Hurd, Professor of Mathematics, McMaster University, Toronto
  Systemic Cascades in Financial Networks (pdf)
  
• Igor Linkov, Risk and Decision Science Team Lead, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
  Resilience and Efficiency in Interconnected Networks (pdf)
  

Cocktail

Agenda 15-16 April (pdf)

Moderator: Martine Durand, OECD Chief Statistician

Speakers:

• Claudio Cozza, Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economic and Legal studies, University of Naples “Parthenope”
  Can We Predict Firms' Innovativeness? (pdf)
• Janna Axenbeck, Researcher, Digital Economy, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research
  What Do Websites Say About Firm-Level Innovation? - A Machine Learning Approach (pdf)
  
• Michael Obersteiner, Programme Director, Ecosystems Services and Management, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
  Algorithmic policy making (through Hypernudging) (pdf)
  
• Álvaro Gómez Losada, Scientific officer,Directorate General, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Seville, Spain
  From Big Data to Smart Data (pdf)
  

Moderator: Angus Armstrong, Director of Rebuilding Macroeconomics Network

Speakers:

• Chris Kempes, Professor, Santa Fe Institute
  Scaling theory and the structure of diverse systems (pdf)
  
• Penny Mealy, Postdoctoral Research Officer, Institute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford
  Interpreting economic complexity
• Ross A Hammond, Director of the Centre on Social Dynamics and Policy, Brookings Institute and Santa Fe Institute
  Using ABM and new data streams to study public health
  
• Elena Rovenskaya, Programme Director, Advanced Systems Analysis, IIASA
  Towards a systems perspective on national well-being (pdf)
  

Moderator: Alan Kirman, Chief Advisor to the NAEC Initiative - We Need New Blood (pdf)

Speakers:

• Eugenio Caverzasi, Post-Doctoral Researcher, Università Politecnica delle Marche
  Inequality and Finance in a Rent Economy (pdf)
  
• Amir Sani, Researcher
  A Resting Time Policy for the Limit-order Book (pdf)
  
• Guido de Blasio, Economist, Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research Bank of Italy
  PAPER - Machine learning in the service of policy targeting: The case of public credit guarantees (pdf)
  PRESENTATION - Machine learning in the service of policy targeting: The case of public credit guarantees (pdf)
• Ermanno Catullo, Researcher, Università Politecnica delle Marche
  PAPER - Forecasting in a complex environment: maching learning sales expectations in a SFC Agent based simulation model (pdf)
  PRESENTATION - Forecasting in a complex environment: maching learning sales expectations in a SFC Agent based simulation model (pdf)
• Jannes Klaas, Quantative Researcher, University of Oxford, Said Business School
  If stress-tests are predictable, are they still useful? (pdf)
  
• Luca Eduardo Fierro, PhD candidate in economics, Università Politecnica delle Marche
  We are the Robots and We (May) Come in Peace (pdf)
  
• Kerstin Hötte, PhD student, Bielefeld University - Department of Business Administration and Economics
  PAPER - How to accelerate green technology diffusion? An agent-based approach to directed technological change with coevolving absorptive capacity (pdf)
  PRESENTATION - How to accelerate green technology diffusion? An agent-based approach to directed technological change with coevolving absorptive capacity (pdf)
  
• Nicolas Woloszko, Economist, OECD Economics Department
  Adaptive Trees, a novel method for economic forecasting (pdf)
  
• Eleonora Mavroeidi, Economist, OECD Economics Department
  Connectivity Counts: How is The Geography of International Trade Linkages Changing and What is the Effect on International Shock Transmission? (pdf)
  

Moderator: Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist

Speakers:

• John Muellbauer, Senior Research Fellow and Professor of Economics, Nuffield College and Institute for New Economic Thinking
  Building Better Central Bank Policy Models (pdf)
• Matheus Grasselli, Professor of Mathematics, McMaster University and the Fields Institute, Toronto
  Three examples of new approaches to macroeconomic modelling (pdf)
  
• J. Doyne Farmer, Director of Complexity Economics, Institute for New Economic Thinking and Santa Fe Institute, and Rebuilding Macroeconomics
  PAPERS - Best reply structure and equilibrium convergence in generic games / How production networks amplify economic growth / Models of Financial Stability and Their Application in Stress Tests
  PRESENTATION - Global Microeconomics (pdf)

Discussant:

• James Carver, Investment Manager, Baillie Gifford

Closing remarks

William Hynes, NAEC Co-ordinator, OECD