The case study explores an experimental statistic developed by the National Statistics Institute of Spain. This initiative aims to enhance tourism-related information by analysing Spanish residents' expenditure abroad using bank transaction data. The experimental statistic provides detailed monthly expenditure information for over 120 countries. This method offers greater precision compared to traditional surveys, which only cover five countries quarterly. The statistic integrates mobile positioning data to calculate average daily expenditure.
Using transaction data to measure Spanish residents’ expenditure on their visits abroad
Abstract
Due to the increased demand for tourism-related information, the National Statistics Institute of Spain launched several experimental statistics to complement traditional statistics. On the demand side, the experimental statistics include “Distribution of expenditure by residents on their visits abroad by country of destination”, "Distribution of expenditure made by inbound visitors on Visits to Spain", "Measurement of National and Inbound tourism from the position of cell phones" and "Estimation of tourist accommodation occupancy using data from digital platforms". On the supply side, the experimental statistic “Measurement of the number of tourist dwellings in Spain and their capacity” has been added.
The experimental statistic "Distribution of expenditure by residents on their visits abroad by country of destination”, analyses the expenditure made by Spanish residents on their visits abroad by country with greater precision than that covered by the Residents Travel Survey. The main objective of this statistic is to provide information on expenditure in countries where the Residents Travel Survey is not able to provide information due to sample shortages, without requiring an additional burden on respondents, as well as the possibility of designing flash estimates of tourist expenditure by residents abroad.
The experimental statistic is based on bank transactions. Information is available on in-person transactions (payments made through point of sale terminals), cash withdrawals at ATMs, and data on e-commerce carried out abroad on bank payment cards issued by the operator of the Spanish card-based payment system. Models based on the bank card data are used to distribute tourism expenditure by destination country, while data from cell phones is used to compute average daily expenditure.
This experimental statistic makes it possible to provide monthly spend information for more than 120 countries, compared to the traditional survey sampling method that only permits spend to be calculated for 5 countries quarterly. Both methods follow the standards for data protection and statistical significance under which the National Statistics Institute always works.
Since 2019, the private company that owns the transaction data has sent quarterly information on the card spending and number of transactions by destination country. The data are aggregated and fully anonymised. Data includes crosstab tables in CSV files with monthly and by country of destination information on the number of transactions and total expenditure for remote and face-to-face payments.
During the first two years, this information was analysed by comparing it with the available data from traditional surveys. As the experimental statistic "Measurement of National and Inbound Tourism from the position of mobile phones" was analysed in parallel, the spend data was also compared to the information based on mobile positioning data. The information is merged only when a country has both card and mobile data observed in its territory. Correlation studies are carried out between the levels of card spending in a country and the number of overnight stats estimated with the mobile data.
In 2022, it was decided to create the new experimental statistic in a similar way to its counterpart statistic "Distribution of the expenditure made by inbound visitors on Visits to Spain", which had been published since December 2020. The first publication of this experimental statistic of expenditure made by Spanish residents abroad was made in April 2023, disseminating the results of 2019-2022. Since then, the quarterly publication has been released 3 months after the end of the reference quarter that is disseminated, coinciding with the Residents Travel Survey publication date.
The data contains information on the total expenditure of Spanish cards abroad. The dissemination includes tables of detailed results of tourist expenditure by destination country and continent on both an annual and monthly basis and includes a visualisation of the geographic distribution with interactive maps, as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.
The total expenditure and overnight stays declared by respondents in the traditional Residents Travel Survey for trips abroad are used as the expenditure base to design a statistical product consistent with official statistics. The total estimated expenditure in Residents Travel Survey includes the pre and post expenditure of the trips and the multiple stops.
It is assumed that the destination country does not impact the probability of using cards for payments. The bank card spending is used to define weights per country, and these weights are applied to the total tourist expenditure for trips abroad from the Residents Travel Survey. E-commerce expenditure is discarded for the design of the structure, as it distorted the estimates due to a significant amount of online expenditure that cannot be matched with a specific region.
For cash withdrawals at ATMs, the assumption is that cash obtained at an ATM of a country is used to pay for goods and services in that same country.
Additionally, information on the beginning and the end of trips to each country from mobile positioning data are used to calculate average daily spend. It is assumed that the tourist has stayed in that country throughout that period. The total nights from the Residents Travel Survey are distributed through a structure per country using mobile telephone data.
Source: https://www.ine.es/experimental/turismo_gasto/turistas_residentes_gasto_extranjero.htm?L=1#_gasto_mensual
Source: https://www.ine.es/experimental/turismo_gasto/turistas_residentes_gasto_extranjero.htm?L=1#_gasto_anual
When publishing the results, the standards for data protection and statistical significance under which the National Statistics Institute always works are considered. The data protection for the experimental statistic "Measurement of National and Inbound tourism from the position of cell phones", means that countries that are under statistical confidentiality in this statistic will also be under statistical confidentiality in “Distribution of expenditure by residents on their visits abroad by country of destination”. Statistical confidentiality is also applied on countries with a very low level of card transactions.
The spend data are published for more than 120 countries. However, as the 50 countries with the highest tourist expenditure account for around 95% of the total, the remaining countries account for a negligible percentage, both in terms of tourist expenditure and overnight stays.
One of the challenges encountered is that since the data for calculating the country weights for tourist expenditure and overnight stays come from two different sources, countries with lower expenditure may see inconsistent and unstable estimates of the average daily expenditure series.
The points to be improved with this project are to break down the expenditure from bank cards by sector to identify spend in tourism sectors, to identify a method to include e-commerce data in the calculations, and to integrate this information with traditional data sources to design new indicators.
For further information please contact:
Maria Velasco Gimeno, Head of Unit Tourism Statistics, National Statistics Institute of Spain, maria.velasco.gimeno@ine.es
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