The OECD Medium‑Term Reference Scenario

This working paper describes a medium-term reference scenario for the OECD based on the shortterm projections described in OECD Economic Outlook No.74. OECD-wide real GDP is projected to expand at 2¾ per cent per annum between 2006 and 2009 and the area-wide rate of unemployment to fall below 6 per cent at the end of the period, while inflation rises only slightly. Despite a fairly robust recovery, fiscal balances remain in significant deficit for the area as a whole; there is little overall improvement in current external imbalances between regions ...