This chapter is based on the OECD Global Revenue Statistics Database and its accompanying publications. It describes the latest tax revenue trends, analysing both total tax-to-GDP ratios and tax structures over time, across low-, middle-, and high-income countries, focusing on OECD countries in particular.
2. Tax revenue context
Copy link to 2. Tax revenue contextAbstract
This chapter presents the latest trends in tax revenues, analysing both overall tax-to-GDP ratios and the composition of tax revenues across all 38 OECD countries, as well as low-, middle-, and high-income countries covered by the OECD Global Revenue Statistics database. It highlights developments in tax-to-GDP ratios and tax structures, with a particular focus on patterns observed over the past two to three years. Due to the limited availability of 2023 data, the primary emphasis of the analysis in this chapter is on OECD countries, though averages for non-OECD high-, middle-, and low-income economies are also included. Preliminary data for 2023 is available for 36 OECD countries, while for other jurisdictions, or income groups, the most recent data pertains to the year 2022.
In 2023, the average tax-to-GDP ratio across OECD countries declined by 0.1 percentage points to 33.9%. Among the 36 countries with available preliminary data for 2023, the ratio rose in 18, fell in 17, and remained unchanged in one. Revenues from taxes on goods and services, as a percentage of GDP, declined in 22 countries, with an average drop of 0.5 percentage points. Property tax revenues also fell in 27 OECD countries. By contrast, revenues from Social Security Contributions (SSCs) increased in 24 countries.
For jurisdictions where 2022 is the most recent year with available data, the tax-to-GDP ratio increased in all regions that are covered. In Africa, the average tax-to-GDP ratio across 33 countries rose by 0.5 percentage points, reaching 16% of GDP in 2022. In the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, comprising 27 countries, the ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.5%, while the Asia-Pacific region, covering 36 economies, recorded an increase of 0.6 percentage points to 19.3%. From an income group perspective, high-income countries (HICs) experienced a slight decrease in their average tax-to-GDP ratio, down 0.1 percentage points to 31.6% in 2022. In contrast, the ratio rose by 0.7 percentage points to 18.9% in middle-income countries (MICs), and by 0.3 percentage points to 13.5% in low-income countries (LICs).
The overall composition of tax revenues remained broadly stable in 2022 relative to 2021 across income groups (OECD, 2024[1]). The tax mix in OECD countries was largely similar to the patterns seen over the past decade. Between 2021 and 2022, the combined share of personal and corporate income taxes in total tax revenues rose by 1.4 percentage points to reach 36.5%. Within this increase, the share of corporate income tax (CIT) grew, while the share of personal income tax (PIT) declined. Meanwhile, the average share of SSCs fell by 0.8 percentage points, and the share of revenues from taxes on goods and services declined by 0.4 percentage points. These trends were mirrored across different income groups, where only minor or no shifts in the tax mix were observed. On average, HICs rely more heavily on PIT compared to MICs and LICs. In contrast, MICs and LICs continue to derive a significantly larger share – over half – of their tax revenues from taxes on goods and services.
2.1. Trends in tax revenue levels
Copy link to 2.1. Trends in tax revenue levelsTax revenues continue to differ widely across countries. However, there is a long-term trend of convergence in tax-to-GDP ratios, as LICs and MICs have steadily increased their tax revenues over the past three decades (Figure 2.1). Among OECD countries, differences in tax-to-GDP ratios have also continued to narrow gradually, with countries at the lower and upper end of the distribution moving closer to the OECD average.
Between 2019 and 2022, tax-to-GDP ratios in high-, middle-, and low-income countries remained relatively stable, despite the severe economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Part of this stability reflects the fact that both GDP and tax revenues declined during the crisis; since tax-to-GDP is measured relative to GDP, a fall in both can leave the ratio broadly unchanged. As economies began to recover, tax revenues rebounded along with economic activity. Regionally, the Asia-Pacific average returned to its pre-pandemic level by 2022. African countries continued efforts to strengthen their fiscal systems, contributing to gradually rising tax-to-GDP ratios over the past decade. In LAC the tax revenue gains were more modest than in 2021. This was largely due to a challenging macroeconomic environment marked by slowing growth and rising inflation. While high prices and output in the oil and mineral sectors supported increased revenue from non-renewable resources, these were partially offset by lower revenues from consumption taxes, reflecting government efforts to cushion inflationary pressures on households and businesses.
In 2023, nominal tax revenues rose in 31 of the 36 OECD countries for which data is available, while nominal GDP increased in 33. In 12 cases, the tax-to-GDP ratio declined as tax revenues grew more slowly than GDP. In Chile, Korea, Israel, and the United States, the ratio also declined, but due to a nominal drop in tax revenues despite GDP growth (OECD, 2024[1]). Meanwhile Norway saw a decline in both indicators, with tax revenues falling more sharply than GDP. On the other hand, 18 countries recorded an increase in their tax-to-GDP ratios compared to 2022. In 16 of these, tax revenues outpaced GDP growth. In Ireland and Denmark, the rise in the ratio was driven by falling nominal GDP alongside an increase in tax revenues.
Figure 2.1. Tax-to-GDP ratios since 1990
Copy link to Figure 2.1. Tax-to-GDP ratios since 1990Tax revenues as a percentage of GDP
Note: The maximum and minimum OECD values signal the range. See the Global Revenues Statistics database for more information.
Source: Global Revenue Statistics Database.
2.2. Trends in tax structures
Copy link to 2.2. Trends in tax structuresAs with the level of tax revenue, the composition of tax structures varied considerably across OECD countries in 2022. Eighteen countries derived the largest share of their tax revenues from income taxes – encompassing both PIT and CIT – while eleven countries relied primarily on SSCs. In nine countries, consumption taxes, including VAT, were the dominant source of revenue. In contrast, property and payroll taxes accounted for a relatively small portion of tax collections across most OECD countries in 2022 (Figure 2.2). In LICs and MICs, consumption taxes tended to represent the largest share of total tax revenues, placing them more firmly within the latter group.
Changes in tax-to-GDP ratios across countries in 2022 reflected a relatively even distribution between increases and decreases, though with a slight overall bias toward increases. Among the 17 countries where the tax-to-GDP ratio declined, Chile experienced the most pronounced drop – 3.3 percentage points – largely driven by a reduction in income tax revenues (Figure 2.3). Korea, Israel, and the United States also recorded notable declines, each exceeding 2 percentage points. On the other hand, Luxembourg posted the largest increase in its tax-to-GDP ratio, rising by 2.7 percentage points, primarily due to higher revenues from PIT and SSCs. Colombia followed closely with a 2.5 percentage point increase, attributed to stronger CIT revenues. Türkiye also recorded an increase of more than 2 percentage points. Additionally, the large decline in CIT revenues in Norway between 2022 and 2023 primarily reflects the exceptional profits of the energy industry in 2022.
Figure 2.2. Tax structures in 2022 (as a % of total tax revenues)
Copy link to Figure 2.2. Tax structures in 2022 (as a % of total tax revenues)
Note: Countries are grouped and ranked by those where income tax revenues (personal and corporate) form the highest share of total tax revenues, followed by those where social security contributions, or taxes on goods and services, form the highest share.
Source: Global Revenue Statistics Database.
Figure 2.3. Decomposition of change in OECD tax-to-GDP ratios by tax type, 2022-23
Copy link to Figure 2.3. Decomposition of change in OECD tax-to-GDP ratios by tax type, 2022-23Year-on-year change, p.p.
Note: Data for 2023 are preliminary and should be interpreted with caution. This graph includes the change between years 2021 and 2022 for Australia, Greece, Japan, Poland and the OECD average. Disaggregated data for 2023 for these countries were not available at the time of publication.
Source: OECD Revenue Statistics (2024).
Reference
[1] OECD (2024), Revenue Statistics 2024: Health Taxes in OECD Countries, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c87a3da5-en.