“Stay With Us?” The Impact of Emigration on Wages in Honduras

While the econometric literature on the impact of immigration on labour markets is well developed, there is a striking gap with regards to the impact of emigration on sending countries. Building on the established literature measuring the impact of immigration, this paper attempts to narrow that gap by investigating whether the short but intense emigration period from Honduras from 2001 to 2007 to the U.S. increased wages in Honduras. It notably exploits the variation of labour supply by skill group in the labour market in the years following Hurricane Mitch. Relying on individual cross-sectional data and an instrumental variable approach, the estimates show that a 10% increase in emigration from Honduras increased wages in Honduras by around 10%, an increase which is higher than previous findings in other countries – but diminishing over time. It also provides evidence on implications in terms of redistribution by gender, rural/urban households and private sector workers.