Albania is a small, upper-middle-income economy with a population of approximately 2.4 million inhabitants and a gross domestic product (GDP) of approximately EUR 25 billion in 2024. GDP per capita reached EUR 10 500, equivalent to approximately 37% of the EU-27 average in purchasing power standards (Eurostat, 2026[9]), yet insufficient to close the income gap within the foreseeable future. At current trends, the World Bank projects that no Western Balkan Six (WB6) economy will reach current EU per capita levels within the next 40 years (World Bank, 2025[10]). The sectoral structure further raises questions about the sustainability of convergence. Agriculture accounts for 17.9% of gross value added (GVA) – approximately ten times the EU-27 average – while manufacturing contributes only 7.5%, roughly half the regional norm. Construction (13.8% of GVA) and wholesale and retail trade (13.9%) together represent more than one-quarter of output (Eurostat, 2026[9]). Tourism has become central to the economy, accounting for 21.5% of employment in 2023 (OECD, 2025[11]), but this concentration in domestically consumed services rather than in tradeable, higher-value-added production constrains the economy’s capacity for productivity-driven convergence.
The macroeconomic environment has improved markedly since 2020, though structural weaknesses and demographic pressures are intensifying. Cumulative real GDP growth of approximately 20% between 2019 and 2024 places Albania among the Western Balkans and Türkiye (WBT) region’s stronger performers (Eurostat, 2026[9]), with GDP projected to stabilise at 3.5% in 2026-2027 (World Bank, 2025[10]). Inflation has remained comparatively moderate: headline inflation stood at 2.2% at the end of 2025, the lowest in the region, partly offset by a substantially stronger lek, which appreciated from ALL 123/EUR in 2019 to ALL 100.5/EUR in 2024 and ALL 98/EUR in 2025 (Bank of Albania, 2026[12]). Labour market indicators are among the strongest in the Western Balkans: the employment rate (for adults aged 20-64 years) reached 74.1% in 2024, unemployment fell to 8.6% in the first half of 2025 – among the lowest in the region – and the female employment rate reached 61.7% in 2023, just 4 percentage points (p.p.) below the EU average (OECD, 2025[11]; INSTAT, 2026[13]). Nevertheless, the demographic trajectory poses a structural challenge: the 2023 census recorded a population decline of approximately 430 000 from 2011 (about 14%), driven by sustained emigration averaging 50 000 persons annually and declining fertility. In the first half of 2025, total employment fell by 0.9% year-on-year as agriculture shed jobs and the working-age population shrank, even as services employment expanded by 6.3% (World Bank, 2025[10]). The export base remains narrow: goods exports stood at 13.2% of GDP in 2023, among the lowest in the WBT region and far below the EU average of 38% (OECD, 2025[11]). While services exports – principally tourism – partially offset this imbalance, the narrow manufacturing base and limited productive complexity directly constrain SME internationalisation prospects.