The OECD Territorial Review: Regional policy for Greece post-2020 provides comprehensive diagnosis and tailored policy recommendations on how to make the most of regional development policy in Greece after 2020.
After a deep crisis, started in 2008-09, the Greek economy initiated its recovery only in 2017, bouncing back in 2018 with a 1.9% growth rate, estimated to reach up to 2.3% in 2019. Unemployment – although still high – has edged down to around 17.3% in 2019 (from 27.5% in 2013 and 19.6% in 2018), with new jobs being created every day. The minimum wage was raised (by 11%) in 2019 for the first time since 2012, positioning Greece near the average of OECD member countries. Despite these positive developments, the current COVID-19 outbreak is slowing down Greece’s recovery efforts. For instance, the OECD estimates the COVID-19 outbreak to yield a 45% decline in international tourism in 2020; which will likely have a significant effect on the Greek economy as tourism accounts directly for 6.8% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and 10.0% of total employment in the country. OECD economic estimates anticipate a sharp decline in global GDP in 2020. The Greek Fiscal Council, a member of the European Union’s independent fiscal institutions network, estimated in March 2020 that for every 1 percentage point decrease in eurozone GDP, Greece’s GDP would slow by about 0.8%.
The 2008 global financial crisis had sizable consequences for Greece’s economy. GDP today is one-fourth smaller than it was in 2007, while GDP per capita is the third-lowest among OECD countries. In contrast, GDP in OECD countries recovered to pre-crisis levels by 2011 and, in 2017, it was 15% larger than in 2007. The crisis has not come equally across Greek regions. Greece now has the 9th highest level of regional disparities in GDP per capita among 30 OECD countries. The greatest declines in productivity occurred in remote islands but also Western Greece and Attica. The latter, which contributes to 48% of national GDP and 43% employment by 2017, suffered disproportionally during the crisis, losing around 10% of its total population. Together with Central Macedonia, it experienced more than half (58%) of the total job losses in Greece, which amount to nearly 700 000. This economic shock was so sharp that Greek “lagging” regions have converged to Attica’s current productivity level – which remains below its potential. This may be considered the “wrong kind” of regional convergence.
Estimates in this review show that, at a growth rate of around 2%, Greece would recover to its pre-crisis level in 15 years. In contrast, if growth is restored to 3% in Attica, the recovery period in Greece would be halved to around 8 years. Thus, revamping the productivity of Athens is key to foster Greece’s national growth, especially under the current circumstances of a global slowdown due to COVID-19. The recovery in Attica could, therefore, have a very strong impact on the aggregate growth figures but it should not be isolated. Balanced and widespread growth in all Greek regions is needed. To that aim, a nationwide regional development strategy that can prioritise different policy responses, taking into account the different needs and characteristics of Greek regions can be an effective tool to restore inclusive growth across the territory.
European Union (EU) funds have played an important role during the recovery process: they represent more than 80% of Greek public investment and analysis in the review estimates that between 2009 and 2018 each euro of Structural Funds in Greece generated an extra 64 cents of GDP.
Greece has already undertaken an impressive number of nationwide structural reforms since the global financial crisis (from pension and tax reforms to justice, labour market, public investment, social, energy and environmental policies). Greece is also facing new development priorities from fostering digitalisation, improving entrepreneurial and business ecosystems, and addressing environmental challenges. At the same time, these new priorities must also tackle existing social challenges and mitigate rising inequalities.
This ambitious national strategy can be complemented by a place-based development strategy. Regions, cities, rural communities and municipalities should align objectives and all have an active role in meeting the economy-wide objectives while tailoring public investments and service delivery to local needs.
To fulfil this task, Greece will need to continue advancing the reform of its institutional and fiscal multi-level governance (MLG) system. Since 2010, Greece has established, a new architecture of the MLG system to deliver regional and local development policies. A number of improvements have been made and the shift towards a greater place-based approach to regional development policy is taking place, notably through: i) a decentralisation agenda, in particular regionalisation; and ii) a more strategic approach to EU funds management, including a greater regional approach in the 2014-20 programming period compared to the previous one.
These two agendas should not be seen in isolation given their strong connections: the process of decentralisation unavoidably has a significant impact on regional development policy and the management of EU funds. The priorities in the short and medium terms should be the consolidation of the changes that have been introduced by the decentralisation agenda and the new architecture of the management and control system of the EU funds for the current programming period. Indeed, more effective investments for regional development require:
1. Better functioning of framework conditions, in particular the decentralisation system (clarification in the assignment of responsibilities, greater subnational fiscal autonomy, greater differentiation in the assignment of responsibilities to reflect varying capacities of subnational governments).
2. Sustaining the progress in the governance of EU funds in the 2021-27 programming period, with a particular focus on regional operational programmes more targeted to local needs; and a more integrated/co-ordinated multi-level system as a whole. Improvements in the governance of EU funds may be used as a leverage to improve the whole multi-level governance system. A more strategic and reinforced partnership between the central, regional and municipal levels is not only important for the management of EU funds but for the public investment system as a whole.