The Belgian labour force is ageing significantly, and therefore ensuring mid-to-late career workers have choices and opportunities to stay in the labour market will be essential. This chapter examines current trends and evidence relating to old-age employment in Belgium, focussing on the role of job mobility in improving labour market outcomes for older workers. The chapter first summarises key data on the employment of older workers in Belgium at national and regional level. It then discusses the role of mid-career mobility in shaping employment outcomes at older ages. The analysis looks at the potential positive effect of mobility on earnings and working conditions, and the impact of mid-career employment outcomes on the later career. Finally, the chapter discusses current evidence on the quantity and quality of job transitions in Belgium, focussing particularly on mobility at older ages.
Promoting Better Career Mobility for Longer Working Lives in Belgium
Abstract
Key findings
The Belgian population is ageing substantially. In 2024, the old-age dependency ratio – the share of the population aged 65 and above relative to the population aged 20‑64 – stood at 35.7 in Belgium, significantly higher than the OECD average (32.4). The dependency ratio is projected to increase by a further 36.4% by 2060. Ageing also changes the make‑up of labour markets: between 1980 and 2024, the share of people aged 55‑64 in the working-age population increased from 17.5% to 22.8%.
Improving labour market opportunities and career choices for older workers is key for mitigating potential negative impacts of ageing on growth and productivity. While the employment rates of older workers in Belgium have increased substantially over time, significant gaps remain relative to other OECD countries. In 2024, the employment rate of workers aged 55‑64 was 59.4%, ca. 5 percentage points (p.p.) below the OECD average (64.6%). Overall employment is higher in the Flanders region than in Brussels or Wallonia, but employment rates drop significantly with age everywhere.
Job mobility can improve the labour market outcomes of older workers. Research shows that mobility, particularly when voluntary and job-to-job, can lead to improvements in wages and working conditions. For mid-career and older workers, mobility can enable transitions to jobs that are of higher quality or better suit evolving needs, including compatibility with health issues or caregiving concerns. In doing so, mid-career mobility can contribute to enabling longer working lives.
For mobility to improve employment outcomes in later life, early intervention is crucial. Mid-career employment outcomes have a strong influence on outcomes later in life. In Belgium, among people aged 45‑54 who are employed, 70.8% are still employed ten years later. In contrast, individuals who are unemployed or, in particular, in work incapacity are likely to remain in or move into unemployment or inactivity. Intervening as early as possible to improve the employment situation in the mid-career can improve long-run labour market outcomes.
Belgium has low levels of labour market mobility. Between 2013 and 2020, 6.6% of Belgian workers changed jobs annually, significantly below the European OECD average of 9.9%. Low levels of mobility are driven by a variety of factors, including negative cultural attitudes towards mobility, structural labour market barriers, and lack of access to training and career guidance.
Job mobility decreases with age. In 2020‑2021, 18.2% of Belgian workers aged 20‑29 and 10.5% of workers aged 30‑39 moved jobs. In contrast, mobility rates drop to 6.9% in the group aged 40‑49 and 4% for workers aged 50‑59. While overall mobility rates are higher in Flanders than in other Belgian regions, significant differences by age are observed everywhere. In the age group 40‑49, 7.9% of workers changed job in 2020/21 in Flanders, compared to 5.2% in Brussels and 5.6% in Wallonia. Removing barriers to mobility is crucial to improve employment prospects at older ages.
Enabling older workers to make high-quality labour market transitions is essential. In Belgium, 50.7% of job transitions for workers aged 20‑35 are voluntary, compared to only 41.2% at ages 45‑54 and 24% at ages 55‑64. Conversely, the likelihood of involuntary transitions increases with age. Older workers are also more likely to make low-to-low skill transitions than other age groups. Moreover, research from European OECD countries demonstrates that the returns to mobility tend to be less pronounced for older workers, as well as for low-skilled workers, who may require specific support.
The ageing of the Belgian population, and labour force, has significant implications for economic growth, labour market performance, and societal welfare. Increased longevity is a major achievement that could bring about significant welfare gains, but it also comes with challenges. Estimates suggest that ageing will have a large fiscal cost in Belgium, with total social security expenditure increasing from 25.8% of GDP in 2024 to 27.6% in 2050 (Conseil Superieur des Finances, 2025[1]). Effective policy action is needed to mitigate the strain on social security systems and potential negative effects on growth or productivity associated with demographic shifts. In this context, one of the key policy levers is supporting the employment of older workers in high-quality, sustainable jobs. This requires improving available career choices at older ages and removing barriers to mobility for workers who can and wish to transition into new roles.
1.1.1. Better engaging older workers in Belgium is a priority against the background of a rapidly transforming labour market
Demographic change is reshaping societies and labour markets in Belgium and many other OECD countries, driven by slumping fertility rates and increased longevity. In Belgium, life expectancy at birth has increased from 73.9 in 1984 to 83 in 2023 (Figure 1.1, Panel A). This is slightly higher than life expectancy across the OECD as a whole (72.9 and 81.2, respectively). Equally, healthy life expectancy at birth has continually increased over time, excepting a decrease at the time of the COVID‑19 pandemic (Figure 1.1, Panel B).
Ageing is restructuring the age makeup of the population, with the dependency ratio – the proportion of individuals aged 65 and above relative to the working age population (ages 20‑64) – climbing substantially over time. In 2023, it stood at 35.7 in Belgium, above the OECD average of 32.4 (Figure 1.1, Panel B). The Belgian old-age dependency ratio is projected to increase by a further 36.4% by 2060, meaning that there will be close to 50 people aged 65 or older for every 100 people in the population aged 20‑64. In addition, the working age population is ageing. In Belgium, the share of individuals aged 55‑64 within the population aged 20‑64 has increased from 17.5% in 1980 to 22.8% in 2024 (OECD, 2025[2]).
There is a significant risk that the decline in the working age population associated with ageing could have negative effects on growth, in the absence of corrective policy action. OECD estimates suggest that until 2060, changes in the employment-to-population ratio could result in a 40% reduction in annual GDP per capita growth across the OECD, from 1% in 2006‑2019 to 0.6% in 2024-2060. In Belgium, the potential reduction is even more pronounced, from 0.8% in 2006‑2019 to only 0.2% projected GDP per capita growth in 2024‑2060 (OECD, 2025[3]).
Against this background, policy action to mitigate the potential negative consequences of ageing on growth is crucial. Improving the employment rates of older workers is one of the essential policy levers, particularly in Belgium. OECD analysis shows that raising the employment rates of older workers in Belgium to the level of the 10% best performing OECD countries could boost GDP per capita growth by more than 0.4 p.p., significantly (though not completely) mitigating projected GDP per capita losses associated with ageing.
Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth and projected change in the old-age dependency ratio
Note: The old-age dependency ratio is calculated as the population aged 65+ / 20‑64.
Source: OECD (2025), Life expectancy (dataset), https://data-explorer.oecd.org/s/35s and calculations based on OECD (2025), Population projections (dataset), https://data-explorer.oecd.org/s/35t (accessed 29 October 2025) and WHO, Healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth (years) (dataset), https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/gho-ghe-hale-healthy-life-expectancy-at-birth (accessed 24 March 2026).
Significant and persistent labour shortages further increase the need to better activate and support career transitions for mid-to-late career workers. Monitoring by the European Employment Services suggests that labour shortages in Belgium are among the most pronounced in the European Union, with 170 occupations identified as shortage occupations in 2024, relative to 106 on average in the European Union (Figure 1.2, Panel A). While labour shortages have become particularly pronounced since 2020, the vacancy rate has been higher in Belgium than the EU for more than ten years, illustrating that labour shortages are a persistent concern (Figure 1.2, Panel B). The vacancy rate is higher than the EU rate across all Belgian regions, though labour shortages are particularly elevated in Flanders, and slightly less so in Brussels and Wallonia. Ensuring that older workers do not leave the labour market prematurely is one of the ways to mitigate these shortages.
Note: Shortage occupations are identified based on a combination of various sources, including among others administrative data from national Public Employment Services, national survey data and experts and employer views. Panel B refers to the job vacancy rate in the total economy (NACE B-S).
Source: EURES (EURopean Employment Services), Shortages and surpluses dashboard 2024, https://eures.europa.eu/living-and-working/labour-shortages-and-surpluses-europe_en#annual-reports-on-labour-shortages-and-surpluses, and calculations based on data from Eurostat (2026), Job vacancy statistics by NACE Rev. 2 activity – quarterly data (from 2001 onwards) (dataset), https://doi.org/10.2908/JVS_Q_NACE2 (accessed 25 March 2026) and Statbel (Direction générale Statistique – Statistics Belgium), Job Vacancy dataset (accessed 25 March 2026).
Moreover, structural transformations including digitalisation and the green transition are driving labour market change in Belgium, increasing the risk of job losses for some workers while deepening existing labour shortages. For instance, marked labour shortages in “green” occupation pose a significant challenge to Belgium’s transition to a greener economy (Barslund, Lenaerts and Tobback, 2025[4]). In Belgium, there are on average 31% more vacancies per employed person in green jobs than in average jobs (Figure 1.3, Panel A), and 40% more vacancies in ICT jobs (Panel B). Tightness is more pronounced in green and ICT jobs in all regions, but tightness among green jobs is particularly high in Wallonia, while ICT jobs are particularly demanded in Brussels. In this context, supporting continuing participation of older workers, but also mobility into growing sectors and occupations is an important policy priority for alleviating shortages.
Shortages in green and ICT jobs and exposure to generative AI by region, 2022
Note: Labour market tightness is defined as the number of vacancies over employment.
Panel A: Occupations that have at least 10% of their tasks classified as green are defined as green jobs, following “Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2023: Bridging the Great Green Divide” (OECD 2023). Belgium is a regional employment-weighted average while OECD is an unweighted average.
Panel B: ICT specialists are defined as “workers who have the ability to develop, operate and maintain ICT systems, and for whom ICT constitute the main part of their job”, following Eurostat (Eurostat 2024). Belgium is a regional employment-weighted average while OECD is an unweighted average.
Panel C: Exposure is defined at the occupation level, where an occupation is considered exposed to Generative AI if at least 20% of its tasks can be done twice as fast with the help of Generative AI. Belgium is a weighted regional average, and OECD is a weighted average.
Source: Based on OECD (2024[5]), Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2024: Country Notes: Belgium, Figures 11, 12 and 14.
Labour market shifts are likely to deepen and further transform skill demand as a result of continuing digital transformation in the labour market, in particular the growing use of Artificial Intelligence. Exposure to generative AI is already high in Belgium (Figure 1.1, Panel C). On average across the country, 33.1% of workers are exposed to Gen AI, meaning that at least 20% of their job tasks could be done twice as fast with the help of the technology. Exposure to GenAI is particularly high in Brussels, but higher than the OECD average in all Belgian regions. The impact of exposure to AI on job quantity and quality is not clear-cut. AI could play a role in offsetting labour shortages, increasing productivity and reducing job strain, but may also expose some groups of workers to potential job losses, loss of autonomy or intensified work pressures. Older workers may be particularly vulnerable, as they often receive less digital training and may have lower digital fluency than younger age groups (OECD, 2024[6]). Several studies find that older workers are a group that is particularly at risk from AI adoption (Lane, 2024[7]; Behaghel, Caroli and Roger, 2014[8]; Cazzaniga et al., 2024[9]). Helping older workers navigate structural labour market changes must therefore also involve providing support, including appropriate training, so that older workers can remain in or transition into jobs that are being transformed by AI.
1.1.2. The employment situation of older workers in Belgium has improved over time, but considerable gaps remain
Belgium has historically had very low employment rates among older age groups, fuelled by the strong prevalence of early retirement schemes which incentivised early labour market exit (Burnay and Sanderson, 2022[10]); (see also Chapter 2). In recent decades, policy emphasis has increasingly shifted towards enabling longer labour market participation, and employment at older ages has increased substantially. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies in employment rates between age groups.
Employment rates of older workers in Belgium lag behind the majority of other OECD countries
Between 2004 and 2024, the employment rate of workers aged 55‑59 in Belgium increased from 53.4% to 78.6% for men, and from 30.8% to 70.8% for women (Figure 1.4, Panel A). Employment in the age group 60‑64 has also increased, but there are large gaps relative to other age groups. In 2024, 48.7% of men and 38.9% of women aged 60‑64 were employed, a drop of ca. 30 p.p. relative to the age group 55‑59.
Despite improvements over time, relative to other OECD countries, the employment rates of older workers remain very low in Belgium (Figure 1.4, Panel B). In 2024, the employment rate of workers aged 55‑64 was 59.4%, lower than the OECD average (64.6%) and a substantial majority of OECD countries. In contrast, in all other age groups, employment rates in Belgium compare favourably to the OECD average. There is thus room for further improving the employment participation of older workers in Belgium.
Note: OECD is a weighted average.
Source: OECD (2025), Employment and unemployment by five‑year age group and sex – indicators (dataset), https://data-explorer.oecd.org/s/35u (accessed 20 April 2026).
There are regional labour market differences, but employment rates drop sharply at older ages in all regions
There are also significant differences across regional labour markets in Belgium. The employment rate of older workers has increased in all regions over time (Figure 1.5, Panel A). However, Flanders has overall higher employment in all age groups. Regional differences are driven by several factors, including varying industrial structure and skill levels across the workforce, and further compounded by limited regional mobility, particularly between Flanders and Wallonia (Adalet McGowan et al., 2020[11]). However, despite regional differences in overall labour market performance, employment rates drop with age everywhere. While the employment rates of workers aged 55‑59 are somewhat lower than those of workers aged 45‑54 across regions, the lower employment rates of older workers are mainly driven by a sharp drop in the age group 60‑64. In 2025, the employment rate at ages 60‑64 was more than 25 p.p. below that of workers 55‑59 in Flanders and Wallonia, and 20 p.p. lower in Brussels (Figure 1.5, Panel B).
Note: Break in series in 2001, 2005, 2011, 2017 and 2021.
Source: Eurostat (2025), Employment rates by NUTS 2 region, https://doi.org/10.2908/LFST_R_LFE2EMPRT (accessed 29 October 2025) and Statbel Employment rate, unemployment rate and activity rate by gender for Belgium and the regions, quarterly* dataset, https://bestat.statbel.fgov.be/bestat/, (accessed 25 March 2026).
The employment rates of older workers in Belgium continue to lag behind other OECD countries, creating a need for policy action to incentivise and enable longer labour market participation. Encouraging more labour market dynamism, including at older ages, goes hand in hand with improved labour market outcomes. Mobility – both within and across firms – can facilitate transitions into higher-quality, more sustainable employment or positions that are better suited to evolving needs and preferences, thereby enabling longer working lives (OECD, 2024[12]). In addition, mobility can help workers move into growing occupations or sectors against the background of the green and digital transitions. To be as effective as possible, early intervention is crucial: mobility in the mid-career can set the foundation for strong labour market performance at older ages and prevent flows out of employment. Removing barriers to mobility and improving career choices for people as they age is therefore a critical policy priority.
1.2.1. Voluntary mobility can improve the earnings and working conditions of older workers
Labour market mobility is a broad concept that encompasses a variety of different types of transitions. For individuals still in employment, mobility can involve transitions across firms (job-to-job mobility), occupational changes (occupational mobility) or moves to a different role within a firm (within-firm mobility) (OECD, 2024[12]). Research has demonstrated that, under the right conditions, job mobility can have substantial benefits for workers. By leading to improvements in the match between a workers’ qualifications and job requirements, mobility can enable moves along the job ladder and lead to improvements in labour market position (OECD, 2024[12]; Bachmann, Bechara and Vonnahme, 2019[13]). As a result, job mobility is associated with wage gains. The positive effects of job mobility on earnings are particularly pronounced for younger age groups (Lam, Ng and Feldman, 2012[14]; Causa, Luu and Abendschein, 2021[15]).
Importantly, the potential benefits of job mobility extend beyond gains in earnings to improvements in job quality. This can include improvements in working conditions, transitions to new career paths, or better reconciliation of work with other responsibilities (Damelang, Schulz and Vicari, 2015[16]). Research has demonstrated that external upward mobility enhances satisfaction with objective working conditions and work-life balance, while internal mobility is associated with greater satisfaction with future career prospects (Fasang, Geerdes and Schömann, 2012[17]). Job mobility is also positively related to both formal and on-the‑job learning in subsequent employment, a relationship that is particularly pronounced for older workers (Westerman, 2021[18]).
OECD analysis confirms that job mobility is associated with improvements in job quality for older workers (Figure 1.6). In Belgium, job changes among workers aged 45‑64 were associated with significant increases in self-reported job quality, including the likelihood of having an adequate salary, being in less physically demanding jobs, and overall job satisfaction. Analysis on a broader sample of European OECD countries also shows correlations between job mobility and various dimensions of job quality among older workers.
However, it is important to highlight that the benefits associated with job mobility are not universal, but rather depend on the nature of labour market transitions. In particular, job mobility benefits workers when it is voluntary and does not involve periods of unemployment. In contrast, involuntary job mobility, as well as transitions that involve a career break between jobs rather than a move from one employer to another, tend to be associated with downward wage mobility (Bachmann, Bechara and Vonnahme, 2019[13]; Hahn, Hyatt and Janicki, 2021[19]; Schmelzer, 2010[20]). Recent research from Germany also shows that voluntary occupational mobility is associated with significant positive gains in both wages and job satisfaction (Bachmann, Heinze and Klauser, 2025[21]). Conversely, unemployment is associated with lower job satisfaction in all domains even once individuals find re‑employment (Fasang, Geerdes and Schömann, 2012[17]). Periods of unemployment can lead to an erosion of human capital, tend to be interpreted as negative signals by employers and may be associated with job-hopping between insecure, low-paid jobs, rather than genuine improvements in labour market position (Schmelzer, 2010[20]). This underlines that mobility is not an end in itself, but rather that policy should seek to enable high-quality, carefully planned labour market transitions while individuals are still in employment.
Effect of job changes on job quality, workers aged 45‑64, 2015-2021
Note: The graph shows the results of a fixed effects regression of job change on various indicators of job quality (based on own perceptions) among employed workers aged 45‑64. The results indicate the p.p. change in the likelihood of reporting a job quality outcome associated with a job change. The model controls for self-rated health, household size, the number of children in the household and providing informal care in the home, in addition to individual, year and country fixed effects. Filled markers indicate statistically significant estimates (95% confidence intervals).
Source: OECD calculations based on the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe.
1.2.2. To improve employment outcomes in later life, intervening as early as possible is crucial
The employment outcomes of older workers are strongly influenced by their labour market experience over the life course. For instance, research from the United States shows that 80% of adults who were in steady employment throughout their 50s were also working sometime between the ages of 62 and 66. In contrast, with increasing degrees of intermittency of employment in the 50s, the likelihood of employment between 62 and 66 dropped steadily, falling to only 4% for those who were never employed in their 50s (Berkman and Truesdale, 2023[22]). The implication is that action to increase employment at older ages, including support for mobility, needs to start early on, in the mid-career.
In Belgium, previous labour market experience also has a strong influence on subsequent employment outcomes (Huysmans et al., 2024[23]). Descriptive analysis of labour market flows of Belgian mid-career workers shows that the likelihood of employment at older ages strongly depends on employment in the mid-career. Figure 1.7 shows how the employment rate of individuals aged 45‑54 evolves over time, depending on their employment status when they are first observed (2012). Several findings emerge:
Of middle‑aged individuals who were employed in 2012, a high share remain in employment, two, five and even ten years later (i.e. at ages 55‑64). Specifically, 89.6% of women and 88.2% of men are still employed in 2017, while 71% and 70.6%, respectively, are still employed in 2022.
In contrast, the share of non-employed adults aged 45‑54 in 2012 who subsequently transition into employment is significantly lower. Among non-employed groups, unemployed individuals have the relatively highest likelihood of transitioning back into employment.
Among individuals who are inactive, including in work incapacity or retired, only very low shares of adults return to employment in subsequent years.
Share in employment over time by initial employment status and gender in Belgium, persons aged 45‑54 in 2012
Note: The chart shows the employment share of the population aged 45‑54 in 2012 over time, showing employment in after two years (in 2014), after five years (in 2017), and after ten years (in 2022), by employment status in 2012. Category “other inactivity“ includes complete career interruptions, jobseekers undergoing training, recipients of social assistance, children receiving family allocations and persons receiving allocations for persons with disabilities. Retirement includes pre-pension schemes. Work incapacity includes only individuals in work incapacity who no longer have any other labour market status. Workers in work incapacity who still hold an employment contract are classed as employed.
Source: OECD calculations based on data from Datawarehouse marché du travail et protection sociale, Banque Carrefour de la sécurité sociale.
In addition, people who are unemployed or in work incapacity are very likely to either remain in or move into inactivity in subsequent years. Figure 1.8 shows the labour market flows of individuals who are unemployed or in work incapacity at ages 45-54 over a ten-year horizon, until they are aged 55-64. Of individuals who start out as unemployed, ca. one fifth are back in employment five or ten years later (Panel A). However, the share of individuals who move from unemployment to work incapacity grows over time, reaching 23.3% after ten years. At the same time, shares of retired individuals also grow, while many remain unemployed.
Employment status over time by initial employment status in Belgium, persons aged 45-54 in 2012
Note: The chart shows subsequent employment status for the population aged 45-54 in 2012, by their employment status in 2012. Category “other inactivity“ includes complete career interruptions, jobseekers undergoing training, recipients of social assistance, children receiving family allocations and persons receiving allocations for persons with disabilities. Retirement includes pre-pension schemes. Work incapacity includes only individuals in work incapacity who no longer have any other labour market status. Workers in work incapacity who still hold an employment contract are classed as employed.
Source OECD calculations based on data from Datawarehouse marché du travail et protection sociale, Banque Carrefour de la sécurité sociale.
The picture is particularly discouraging for people who are in work incapacity in the mid-career. Work incapacity is a critical concern in Belgium, health issues being one of the primary reasons for labour market withdrawal among older workers (Burnay and Sanderson, 2022[10]). In recent years, the share of disability benefit recipients has increased substantially, which may partially be related to the phase-out of early retirement schemes (Adalet McGowan et al., 2020[11]). The data analysis demonstrates that work incapacity is strongly persistent over time: the vast majority of individuals who are in work incapacity in mid-career remain in this status in the long-term (Figure 1.8, Panel B). Only ca. 4% eventually return to employment. This data illustrates the importance of measures to address health issues as a barrier to labour market participation in Belgium, through support for individuals with health issues returning to work (Chapter 2), but also workplace investment in healthy and sustainable working conditions across the life course (Chapter 3).
Taken together, these results demonstrate that the higher the distance from the labour market at ages 45‑54, the lower the likelihood of employment at older ages. Given the strong interdependency of labour market statuses over time, providing support in the mid-career is crucial to enable better employment outcomes as workers age. Conversely, seeing how difficult transitioning out of unemployment and work incapacity is for mid-career workers, early intervention is of critical importance to support workers before they become unemployed or inactive wherever possible. This includes removing barriers to mobility to improve career choices at older ages and enabling workers to move into more sustainable jobs early on, while they are still in employment.
1.2.3. By increasing the quality and sustainability of employment, mid-career mobility could prolong working lives
Mid-career mobility has the potential to lead to longer working lives. Amid structural labour market change, mobility is key for ensuring that older workers can move into growing sectors and reduce vulnerabilities to displacement. In addition, transitions into higher-quality jobs could incentivize workers to remain in employment for longer. With increasing age, workers tend to place increasing value on specific elements of job quality, such as lower physical strain and access to flexible work (Maestas et al., 2023[24]). If job mobility enables transitions into roles which are less physically demanding, involve different tasks or job demands, and are associated with improved working conditions, this could contribute to longer labour market participation (Groot and Verberne, 1997[25]; Visser et al., 2017[26]). There is some evidence to suggest that job mobility can help to extend working lives. In the United States, voluntary job mobility is significantly associated with delayed retirement, with workers who changed job between ages 50 and 60 significantly more likely to still be working at ages 65 and 67 (Sanzenbacher, Sass and Gillis, 2017[27]).
OECD analysis also suggests that mid-career mobility is associated with improved labour market outcomes of older workers in Belgium. Figure 1.9 shows the results of a regression analysis linking a job change in the mid-career (between ages 45 and 54) to employment outcomes at older ages. Across European OECD countries, mid-career mobility is associated with an 8.5 percentage-point increase in the likelihood of working at age 60, and conversely, a 5.5 percentage-point reduction in the likelihood of retirement. Mid-career mobility also increases the likelihood of working at age 65. Similar patterns are also observed for Belgium, though with greater uncertainty around the estimates resulting from smaller sample sizes. In particular, mid-career mobility is associated with a reduction in the likelihood of retirement at 60 of 6.6 percentage points, significant at 10%. In addition, mid-career mobility is associated with a large increase in the likelihood of working at age 65 in Belgium, of 10.8 percentage points.
Effect of mid-career switch on expected probability of working or retirement at 60/65, 2000-2018
Note: The graph shows the results of a logit regression modelling the effect of a job change in the midcareer (45-54) on observed employment outcomes at ages 60 and 65. Controls include gender, education, number of jobs until 60/65, age when starting first job, industry, working hours and employment status (employee private sector, employee public sector, self-employed) prior to the mid-carrier, and number of children and marital status at age 60/65. The model also includes year and country (for the pooled model) fixed effects). 95% Confidence intervals are also shown. The model for OECD Europe includes 26 European countries.
Source: OECD calculations based on Survey of Ageing and Retirement in Europe Life History Waves 3 and 7.
Mid-career mobility can be an important lever for enabling moves into higher-quality, sustainable employment and ultimately enabling longer working lives. However, as workers age, mobility rates tend to decrease. This is partially reflective of improvements in the job-worker match, but can also be a result of barriers to mobility older workers face in the labour market (le Grand, 2002[28]; Riekhoff, 2022[29]; OECD, 2024[12]). In Belgium, levels of labour market mobility are low in international comparison and decrease further with age.
1.3.1. Belgium has low job mobility, particularly at older ages
Job mobility rates are influenced by a range of factors, including socio-economic characteristics of individuals, but also institutional and structural features that shape mobility levels across countries (Kalleberg and Mouw, 2018[30]). In international comparison, the Belgian labour market generally shows little dynamism. Transitions from inactivity or unemployment to employment as well as job-to-job transitions are rather limited (SPF Emploi, 2022[31]; Adalet McGowan et al., 2020[11]) Between 2013 and 2020, 6.6% of Belgian workers changed jobs annually, significantly below the European OECD average of 9.9% (Figure 1.10, Panel B).
Rates of occupational mobility – worker transitions from one occupation to another – are slightly higher in international comparison, with 5% of Belgian workers changing occupation annually between 2013 and 2020, compared to 4.4% across European OECD countries. Occupational mobility is one of the major levers for coping with structural labour market changes, including changing demand for specific skills or tasks (Bachmann, Bechara and Vonnahme, 2019[13]). Against the background of widespread structural labour market transformations which impact the sectoral and occupational structure of the economy, including the digital and green transitions, increasing levels of occupational mobility is an urgent concern for policy (Barslund, Lenaerts and Tobback, 2025[4]).
Note: Panel A shows the share of employees (also including individuals who are employees and simultaneously self-employed/have aidant status) moving jobs between two years relative to the average stock of employment in those two years. Panel B shows the estimated share of employees changing jobs and changing jobs annually, based on date pooled over the period 2023-2020. Job-to-job mobility captures both job-to-job hopping and workers experiencing a short unemployment spell between jobs (less than 12 months). The red bars are the unweighted average of the 26 countries shown.
Source: Calculations based on data from the Dynam project (Chiffres - Dynam), https://www.dynamstat.be/fr/chiffres (Panel A) and the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions Survey (EU-SILC), (Panel B).
However, data also suggests that the frequency of job-to-job transitions is increasing somewhat over time in Belgium (Figure 1.10, Panel A). Between 2016/17 and 2020/21, the rate of job-to-job transitions in Belgium increased from 8.7% to 9.3%. Though men are overall slightly more mobile in the labour market than women, both genders saw increases in mobility levels over this time period – from 8.2% to 8.9% and from 7.6% to 8.4%, respectively.
Several factors explain the low levels of job mobility observed in Belgium. First, negative attitudes towards career mobility are strongly culturally engrained. Most workers express preferences for staying with one employer and demonstrate resistance to the idea of career change (SPF Emploi, 2022[31]; Dries and Verbruggen, 2023[32]). Negative perceptions of career mobility are also prevalent among employers, with evidence suggesting that individuals who seek to change careers are penalized by recruiters (Dries and Verbruggen, 2023[32]). However, in addition to cultural factors, low job mobility is also a result of structural labour market barriers, which may provide particularly strong disincentives to mobility at older ages. These structural features of the Belgian labour market include non-transferable seniority wages and benefits, the strong prevalence of pathways towards early labour market exit (which have however been strongly restricted in the past years) and limited wage dispersion between firms (SPF Emploi, 2022[31]; Adalet McGowan et al., 2020[11]). In addition, limited effectiveness of active labour market policies and lack of access to high-quality career guidance can limit labour market transitions (Ibid.).
Older workers have particularly low job mobility rates
In line with trends in other OECD countries, job mobility levels in Belgium are particularly low for older workers, though all age groups have seen some increase in mobility in recent years (Figure 1.11). Between 2020 and 2021, job-to-job transitions were observed for 6.9% of workers aged 40-49, rates that further decreased to 4% for workers aged 50-59 and 2% for those aged 60 or older. In contrast, 18.2% of workers aged 22-29 and 10.5% of those aged 30-39 changed jobs between 2020 and 2021.
Job mobility by age, Belgium, 2016-2021
Note: Job mobility data refers to job-to-job transitions, defined as the share of employees (also including individuals who are employees and simultaneously self-employed/have aidant status) moving jobs between two years relative to the average stock of employment in those two years. Job-to-job transitions may include short periods of unemployment in between the two years.
Source: OECD calculations based on data from the Dynam project (Chiffres – Dynam), https://www.dynamstat.be/fr/chiffres.
The fact that job mobility rates decrease with age is not unexpected. As workers age and spend more time in the labour market, they acquire firm-specific skills and the quality of the match between their job and their skills improves. This is associated with wage and non-wage returns that make mobility less attractive; in contrast, mobility in the early career is crucial for improving match quality (le Grand, 2002[28]).
However, decreasing levels of job transitions at older ages can also reflect barriers to mobility that older workers face in the labour market. These include, for instance, missing transferable or specific skills, inadequate access to high-quality job search support and health issues hindering the ability to find suitable work (OECD, 2024[12]). In addition, older workers who want to move jobs face age discrimination and may encounter employers who perceive mobility as a negative signal, due to social norms that mobility should be chiefly relevant for younger workers (Riekhoff, 2022[29]; Lam, Ng and Feldman, 2012[14]).
There are significant regional differences in job mobility, but older workers always change jobs less frequently
Job mobility levels differ significantly by region in Belgium (Figure 1.12). Overall, in alignment with regional differences in employment rates, the Flemish labour market is the most dynamic, showcasing significantly higher rates of job-to-job mobility than Wallonia or Brussels. However, in all regions, job mobility levels drop significantly with age. In the age group 40-49, 7.9% of workers changed job in 2020/21 in Flanders, compared to 5.2% in Brussels and 5.6% in Wallonia. Mobility rates were more than 3 percentage points higher in the age group 30-39, and more than 5 percentage points higher in the age group 22-29, in all regions.
Differences in labour market performance and dynamism could present opportunities for workers to move to jobs in different regions. However, interregional mobility is rather limited, particularly between Flanders and Wallonia (Adalet McGowan et al., 2020[11]). Between 2015 and 2021, the share of workers who work in Flanders but are resident in Brussels or Wallonia increased only marginally, remaining at less than 5% (Defeyt, 2022[33]). In Brussels, interregional professional mobility is more frequent. Approximately half of the jobs in the Brussels-Capital region are occupied by individuals resident elsewhere, while about one in five employees resident in Brussels work in Flanders or Wallonia (Moreau and Cuyvers, 2024[34]). Though the regional Public Employment Services are undertaking efforts to encourage interregional mobility (see Chapter 2), there remains room for improvement (SPF Emploi, 2022[31]).
Note: Job mobility data refers to job-to-job transitions, defined as the share of employees (also including individuals who are employees and simultaneously self-employed/have aidant status) moving jobs between two years relative to the average stock of employment in those two years. Job-to-job transitions may include short periods of unemployment in between the two years. There are slight discrepancies between transition rates based on regional and national data as workers moving to a job in the same company between two regions will be registered as mobile in the national but not the regional data.
Source: OECD calculations based on data from the Dynam project (Chiffres - Dynam), https://www.dynamstat.be/fr/chiffres and Eurostat (2025), Employment rates by NUTS 2 region (dataset), https://doi.org/10.2908/LFST_R_LFE2EMPRT (accessed 28 November 2025).
Older workers are less likely to change sectors
Levels of labour market dynamism also vary significantly across sectors, with certain sectors demonstrating much higher levels of job mobility than others. Differences in job mobility across sectors are driven by a range of factors, including the degree of industrial specificity, industry growth, the sectoral gender composition and wage levels, among others (Hervé, 2023[35]). In 2022/23, overall turnover in Belgium was highest in administrative and support services (17.8%), accommodation and food services (14%), scientific and technical activities (10.9%), and construction (10.5%). In contrast, the least dynamic sectors are teaching (3%) and public administration (4.7%). Moreover, sectors also vary according to the share of intrasectoral mobility i.e. the share of workers who move into a job within the same sector. Transitions out of the sector are least likely in health and social services (59.9% share of intra-sectoral mobility), accommodation and food services (50.6%), and construction (48.6%).
In addition, with increasing age, workers are somewhat less likely to change sectors. In the age group 20‑29, the share of within-sector transitions among all transitions stands at 37%, increasing to 39.3% for the age group 30-39 and 41.8% for the age group 40-49. Intra-sectoral transitions are highest in the age group 50‑59 (44.2%), and at similarly high levels among workers aged 60 or above (44%).
Note: Job-to-job transitions by sector refers to overall within-sector turnover, defined as entries into and exits out of the sector relative to the overall average stock of employment in that sector, based on NACE-BEL 2008, level 1 (sectors B, C, D, E and R, S, T, U are aggregated). Intersectoral transitions refers to workers who move to a job within the same sector of employment.
Source: OECD calculations based on data from the Dynam project (Chiffres - Dynam), https://www.dynamstat.be/fr/chiffres.
1.3.2. Investment in high-quality labour market transitions is essential for older workers
For mid-career mobility to lead to more sustainable employment and longer working lives, not only the quantity, but also the quality of labour market transitions is essential. For the Belgian case, research from Flanders has illustrated the diversity of labour market pathways associated with entries into new jobs for older workers (Huysmans et al., 2024[36]). For mid-career and older workers, entering a new job is more likely to be associated with stable employment post-recruitment, but can also lead to pathways towards inactivity, including incapacity to work. Policy focus should lie on enabling high-quality labour market transitions, which are voluntary and lead to improvements in job quality.
Older workers are less likely to make high-quality job transitions
Evidence suggests that when mid-career or older workers make labour market transitions, they are not necessarily of high quality. Older workers are more likely than other age groups to make involuntary occupational transitions, and less likely to make voluntary ones (Bachmann, Bechara and Vonnahme, 2019[13]).This pattern is also true for Belgium, where, in line with other European OECD countries, the likelihood of involuntary job transitions increases with age in Belgium, while the likelihood of voluntary transitions decreases (Figure 1.14). In the period 2013-2020, 50.7% of job changes were voluntary in the age group 20-35 and 50% in the age group 35-44, decreasing to 41.2% for workers aged 45-54 and 24% for those aged 55-64. Conversely, the share of involuntary transitions among all job changes increases with age. In Belgium, 35.3% of job transitions were involuntary in the age group 45-54, and 54.5% in the age group 55-64.
Share of voluntary and involuntary transitions among all job transitions by age, 2013-2020
Note: OECD Europe is the weighted average of 26 countries composed of the 22 EU member countries, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Job-to-job changes captures both job-to-job hopping and workers experiencing a short unemployment spell between jobs. Voluntary transitions are defined as changing jobs to take up or seek better work. Involuntary transitions are defined as changing job because of the end of a temporary contract, being obliged to stop by the employer, sale or closure of own/family business, childcare or care for other dependant, or being forced to move due to partner’s job/marriage.
Source: OECD calculations based on the European Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC).
Older workers in Belgium are also particularly likely to make low-to-low skill job transitions (Figure 1.15). In the age group 45-64, 23% of all job-to-job transitions between 2010 and 2020 were low-to-low skill transitions, compared to only 19% among the entire population aged 25-64. The shares of low-to-low skill transitions are however lower than the respective shares on average across OECD countries (27% and 22%).
Low-to-low skill job changes as a share of total job-to-job changes, 2010-2020
Note: AVE is the unweighted average of the 25 countries in the chart.
Source: OECD (2024[12]), Promoting Better Career Choices for Longer Working Lives: Stepping Up Not Stepping Out, Figure 2.7, https://doi.org/10.1787/1ef9a0d0-en.
In addition to differences in the nature of job transitions, evidence also suggests that the returns to mobility differ markedly between different labour market groups. First, wage returns to mobility differ by age group. Research from the United States shows that younger workers are not only more likely to make within-firm occupational transitions, but also to see relatively higher wage gains from upward mobility (Forsythe, 2019[37]). In addition, OECD analysis shows that the effects of job mobility on wages differ by age in European OECD countries (OECD, 2024[12]). Voluntary job changes generate significant wage gains early in the career, but such gains largely disappear at older ages. Conversely, when older workers move jobs involuntarily, the negative wage effects of mobility are especially pronounced, making late-career mobility more risky and less forgiving.
The benefits of labour market transitions differ between groups of workers, including at older ages
Socio-economic characteristics affect the likelihood of benefitting from mobility, including in the group of older workers. Research has demonstrated that socio-economic characteristics influence the likelihood of making high-quality labour market transitions which generate returns in the form of wage benefits or job satisfaction. For instance, while the evidence on gender differences in the returns to job mobility is mixed (Pearlman, 2018[38]; OECD, 2024[12]), research suggests that lower-skilled workers are less likely to benefit from mobility (Bachmann, Heinze and Klauser, 2025[21]; OECD, 2024[12]).
Across all age groups, low-skilled workers are particularly vulnerable to low-quality labour market mobility. While the rate of job-to-job transitions does not differ much by educational level, low-skilled workers make transitions to and from employment much more frequently than highly skilled workers (Boogaerts et al., 2024[39]). Evidence from Flanders shows that low-skilled workers are more vulnerable to downward labour market transitions, including downward wage mobility, outflows into inactivity or unemployment, and more volatile career paths post-recruitment (Huysmans et al., 2024[36]; Goesaert, Vandekerkhove and Struyven, 2019[40]). Workers who were not in employment before recruitment show similar vulnerabilities (Ibid.). Close to one quarter of low-skilled individuals who enter employment fall back into unemployment after a short-term job (Goesaert, Vandekerkhove and Struyven, 2019[40]).
While the evidence on heterogeneity within the group of older workers with regard to the nature and returns to mobility is very limited, available research does suggest that specific groups of older workers are more vulnerable to low-quality transitions. Older workers in lower social classes, with experience of unemployment or disability, or working part-time are more likely to experience downward mobility (Visser et al., 2017[26]). This highlights the crucial importance of skills investment and early intervention targeted at employed workers for facilitating high-quality labour market transitions.
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