This chapter provides guidance for Bulgaria’s approach to address the challenges related to the green transition, building on the experience of the NEA along with good practices from other public employment services. To prepare the workforce for the green transition, efforts for enhancing employability should be stepped up, while ensuring that the transition remains as inclusive as possible. Support for employers is also necessary, to address labour shortages, facilitate access to skilled workers, and meet evolving skill demands in the green economy.
Optimising Processes and Services at Bulgaria’s National Employment Agency
Abstract
As in other countries, the transition towards a “greener” economy is already reshaping the Bulgarian labour market and is expected to drive further changes in the years ahead. For Bulgaria, where coal has long been a cornerstone of employment and energy production, especially in certain parts of the country that are currently facing severe economic dislocation, this shift poses significant challenges. The National Employment Agency (NEA) as the primary stakeholder responsible for implementing workforce adaptation strategies is expected to act fast and co‑ordinated with other stakeholders, to be able to address the social and economic impacts of this transition. Successfully managing the green transition has recently become a strong policy priority embedded in the resilience and recovery plans of countries in the European Union (EU), including Bulgaria. There is thus a unique opportunity to advance such initiatives, as substantial funding is available through various EU mechanisms to facilitate the transition and support those most vulnerable to its adverse impacts.
This chapter is organised into two sections. The first section briefly discusses the current situation in Bulgaria in the context of the green transition. It then discusses the strategic role of the NEA as well as the present initiatives and actions by the NEA to address the green transition. The section also highlights the key challenges that still lie ahead, summarised in Table 5.1.
Source: Authors’ compilation.
The second section focuses on possible actions by the NEA to transform the relevant challenges into opportunities and navigate the green transition. These have been designed and successfully implemented by other EU and OECD PES and are adaptable to the Bulgarian context. They are organised into four main areas: i) green strategy and capacity building within the NEA; ii) green taxonomies and building labour market intelligence; iii) ALMPs supporting the green transition; and iv) monitoring and evaluation.
5.2.1. Understanding the green transition in the Bulgarian labour market
In Bulgaria, the green transition process is advancing, and the country seeks to align its economic development with sustainable practices and environmental goals. Bulgaria is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing the share of renewable energy, and promoting energy efficiency. The government has put forward various policies and measures aimed at transitioning to a low-carbon economy, most of which are outlined in the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) 2021‑30 alongside with national targets for decarbonisation, energy efficiency, energy security, internal energy market, and research, innovation and competitiveness.
In December 2023, the European Commission (EC) approved Bulgaria’s Territorial Just Transition Plans, unlocking EUR 1.2 billion from the Just Transition Fund (JTF)1 to support the social, economic, and environmental transformation of the country’s three most affected regions, namely Stara Zagora, Pernik and Kyustendil.2 The plans outline several measures for these three coal regions to reduce their reliance on lignite. The bulk of the allocated funding is directed towards environmental policies, primarily focusing on investments in energy efficiency, renewable energy deployment, and the reclamation of former mines. This includes rehabilitating 2 190 hectares of land for industrial development and renewable energy capacities, as well as implementing energy efficiency measures in residential buildings to combat energy poverty among vulnerable households. The JTF also promotes the establishment of renewable energy communities, to reduce energy consumption, lower electricity bills, and cut greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of improving living conditions for residents in the transitioning regions. The remaining funds are designated to economic policies, including investments in small and medium-sized enterprises, large corporations, reskilling and upskilling programmes and the creation of new employment opportunities. A committee has been established in Bulgaria to oversee the utilisation of EU funds and to monitor the implementation of the three Territorial Just Transition Plans, funded by the JTF, the implementation of which is already underway.
The lignite mining and power generation industry is one of the main employers in Bulgaria. Across the country, the coal industry provides jobs to over 14 000 workers directly and over 29 000 indirectly (in companies supplying and servicing the coal industry (Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), 2022[1]). In total, nine regions in the southern part of the country face significant socio‑economic challenges due to the phased transition away from coal and the gradual closure of mines (Republic of Bulgaria, 2024[2]). This shift poses a potential risk of job losses for those employed in the coal mining and power-generating sectors, which has already resulted in employment loss, particularly following two waves of layoffs at one of the largest international thermal power plants based in Stara Zagora in 2024. In addition to Stara Zagora, Pernik and Kyustendil, the region of Haskovo also has coal mines and associated power plants. Neighbouring areas are also potentially at risk of job losses due to ancillary industries that directly or indirectly produce products for the coal-fired power plants, although to a lesser extent. These are the districts of Sliven, Yambol and Kardjali for the basin around the Mariza mine, and the district of Blagoevgrad, which is adjacent to the Bobov dol mine. There are. According to a preliminary assessment by the trade union centre, the closure of the mines and coal-fired power stations will affect almost 18 000 workers (including family members of those employed in the coal industry).
It is expected that some of those affected will seek employment in regions with a stronger labour market and increased demand for labour, such as the region of the Thrace economic zone, where a large number of high-tech companies are located. This will lead to increased internal labour migration in the early years of the transition from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy. Part of the workforce, with skills and occupations close to those required by the manufacturing companies in the Thrace economic zone, will have the opportunity to move quickly into new employment. Others are more likely to migrate to the Black Sea regions of Bourgas, Varna and Dobrich, where there is a high demand for labour in the tourism sector.
5.2.2. The NEA has started to take action in response to the green transition
The NEA is an important stakeholder in addressing the challenges that accompany this transition. As the central public entity for the development and implementation of employment and training policies, the NEA is well positioned to lead initiatives to align workforce development with the demands of the green transition. Additionally, the NEA can support the co‑ordination process led by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, bringing together other government agencies, local stakeholders, social partners and the private sector.
The NEA has already taken some preliminary steps to address the challenges posed by the green transition, following the first two waves of layoffs in the energy sector. These steps include specific ALMPs and support services to jobseekers, particularly those affected by the closure of power plants in Stara Zagora.
Two measures are already in place to address the green transition. The first, “Addressing the Challenges of the Labor Market”, is a project funded by the ESF+ under the Human Resources Development Programme (HRDP) and is specifically designed to facilitate the green transition. It is implemented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy in collaboration with the NEA, as well as two nationally presented trade unions. It aims to identify and map the available skills and career development attitudes of employees in thermal power plants and coal mines affected by the low-carbon transition in the regions of Stara Zagora, Kyustendil and Pernik. The findings of the project are expected to support workforce planning, upskilling, and investment decisions. As part of the project, a nationwide employer survey will be conducted to identify emerging and declining occupations, job roles, and the evolving demand for skills driven by the green and digital transition. The second measure is an ALMP, adapted to promote the creation of “green jobs” in businesses across various sectors of the economy. According to the amended Article 55d of the Employment Promotion Act, in force since 2024 (SG 82/2023), businesses that create green jobs – defined as jobs that contribute to environmental protection – are eligible for receiving subsidies for each unemployed person hired through NEA intermediation, up to a maximum of 12 months. Eligible activities are jointly defined by the Ministries of Environment and Labour. In the future, it is planned to monitor and evaluate these programmes to assess their effectiveness in addressing the challenges posed by the green transition.
At the local level, the NEA has taken some first steps to address job displacement caused by the green transition. The local office at Stara Zagora, an area which already experienced layoffs, organised job fairs and information sessions for displaced workers immediately following layoffs, connecting them with employers and available job opportunities. These workers are also eligible to receive programmes and services already in place and available to all registered jobseekers, such as training on digital skills, vocational training, language courses, and entrepreneurship training and grants. The NEA reported that 22% of displaced workers have found new employment through these efforts.
While the NEA contributes to the planning and co‑ordination of green transition measures, it is not directly involved in the broader approaches that shape national green transition policies in the country. In some cases, the agency participates in research, contributing inputs to surveys aimed at better understanding labour market needs including in the context of the green transition.
Looking ahead, the NEA is preparing to expand its role and better address the evolving needs of labour market transformation through new initiatives. The agency is planning to collaborate with other stakeholders, including the institute of public administration and public administration training centres with the aim to provide specialised training to the staff at the local offices in the affected regions on how to support workers affected by the closures transition into new roles. The NEA is also considering carrying out surveys with businesses and employees to map future labour market needs, which will guide the agency in preparing workers for emerging green jobs. Regional mobility is another area of consideration, as the NEA seeks to address labour market imbalances while minimising the depopulation of affected areas. The NEA is also considering offering relocation support packages to displaced workers, as well as attracting workers to sectors with job opportunities, such as tourism. Digitalisation is another area of focus for the NEA, with the planned development of a new digital tool based on artificial intelligence (see Chapter 6). The tool will include, among other elements, a virtual labour office and a matching platform through which jobseekers will be matched with suitable employment opportunities. In addition, plans are underway to adopt the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations classification (ESCO= classification and incorporate it into the new matching tool, which includes green occupations and skills.
5.2.3. Despite initial efforts, many challenges still lie ahead
Despite some progress, the NEA continues to face challenges in managing labour market disruptions caused by the green transition. These are expected to exacerbate in the future, with potential closures of additional coal and thermal power plants, and the broader socio-economic changes in the transitioning regions. Challenges can be categorised into four main areas: i) managing labour market disruptions and mismatches; ii) balancing jobseeker expectations with employer needs; iii) tackling uncertainty and operational limitations; and iv) ensuring stakeholder engagement and co‑ordination (Figure 5.1). Some of these are already evident, while others may become apparent as the transition continues to evolve.
Source: Authors’ compilation.
Managing labour market disruptions and mismatches
The closure of coal plants and related industries is creating significant labour market disruptions, leading to increased labour supply and the need to support displaced workers. A central challenge in managing this transition lies in addressing the resulting skills gaps and labour market mismatches, specifically, the disconnect between the qualifications of jobseekers and the skills required by employers. This makes targeted training and upskilling essential for ensuring smooth transitions and effective workforce integration. As industries such as coal plants and other carbon-intensive sectors decline due to the green transition, closures not only result in the direct loss of jobs but also create a ripple effect across supply chains, local economies, and related sectors, further amplifying the need for retraining workers and supporting their job-search. The changing labour market requires the NEA and other stakeholders to rapidly scale up training programmes, career counselling, and job placement services. The challenge lies in ensuring these initiatives are both timely and effective, helping displaced workers transition smoothly to new roles in sectors such as renewable energy, green manufacturing, and sustainable agriculture. As the economy shifts towards sustainability, many workers find themselves with skills that are no longer in demand, while employers in green industries struggle to find qualified candidates for new roles. This mismatch may slow down the transition process, as it takes both time and resources to upskill or reskill workers to meet the requirements of emerging sectors. Moreover, the rapid pace of technological change in green industries and the dynamic nature of the green transition, means that the skill sets required are constantly evolving, making it even more challenging to align new programmes with labour market needs. There is an urgency to act, in order to prevent long-term economic and social costs associated with prolonged unemployment and underemployment.
Balancing jobseeker expectations with employer needs
A further challenge faced by local NEA offices in affected areas lies in balancing the expectations of jobseekers with the demands of employers. This task is further complicated by the diverse and sometimes conflicting interests of the different parties involved. To effectively tackle this challenge, it is essential to thoroughly understand the concerns and needs of both groups. The information regarding these is largely drawn from the findings of in-person consultations with the NEA staff – especially in Stara Zagora, the region most affected by the green transition so far.
Undoubtedly, jobseekers in affected areas face numerous challenges as they have to navigate changes that impact not only their job prospects but also their financial stability, mental well-being, and long-term planning. According to jobseekers themselves during focus groups discussions, one of the main challenges they face, is the lack of clear information about the future. Workers from the coal industry were initially led to believe that alternative energy projects, such as solar farms, would be developed in their regions, allowing them to retain their jobs. However, when these plans failed to materialise, they lost trust in the system. Despite their close contact with local labour offices, workers remain uncertain about alternative jobs and how their skills will fit into the emerging green economy. While not opposed to the green transition as such, they call for more in-advance information and guidance on what opportunities lie ahead.
Many displaced workers have strong educational backgrounds and possess valuable work experience, yet the jobs offered to them often do not align with their skills or pay expectations. More often than not, the available vacancies come with much lower salaries – sometimes as much as 50% less than what they used to earn in their previous jobs at thermal power plants and mines. While some businesses offer training, promotions, and career development opportunities, displaced workers remain hesitant to accept. This hesitation, combined with fears that new jobs may not offer long-term stability, complicates their decision-making process and further discourages them from fully engaging with the job market.
Participants in focus group discussions expressed mixed opinions on retraining. Some workers believe they already have the necessary skills and prefer to continue working in their current professions, particularly within the energy sector, despite the uncertain future of these industries. Others have started considering training to switch careers, recognising that their current occupation may not be viable in the coming years. However, there is some scepticism about retraining for new “greener” sectors, as many fear these jobs may also become obsolete in the future.
Another significant challenge for jobseekers in focus groups discussions is the prospect of relocating to other regions. Many workers have established their lives in their local communities, having built homes, started families, and committed to loans and other financial obligations based on their professional status, salary, and other conditions. As a result, moving to a different region for employment is not their first choice. However, some have started to consider relocation to other regions of the country, particularly larger urban areas, or even moving abroad, if they can find higher-paying jobs.
As expected, the stress from the job loss, combined with the uncertainty about the future and the challenges of finding suitable and sustainable employment, has left many jobseekers feeling psychologically distressed. This complex condition has also an impact on their motivation. While most of the displaced workers receive unemployment benefits for up to 12 months – starting at 100% of their previous salary and gradually decreasing – this financial support does not alleviate the emotional burden of unemployment and may intensify reluctance, at least initially, to take on opportunities they see as unsatisfactory.
As the green transition reshapes the labour market, employers in affected regions encounter numerous challenges when it comes to recruitment and workforce management. These obstacles not only impact their ability to fill in their vacancies but also affect the overall labour market landscape in the affected regions.
Workforce planning is challenging as the hiring needs of local companies are varying. When businesses receive large orders or undertake significant projects, they often need to quickly hire additional personnel; nevertheless, this is not always the case. While employers who took part in focus group discussions expressed willingness to hire displaced workers, particularly those with valuable experience from the coal industry, they often face high salary expectations. Many displaced workers anticipate wages levels that employers cannot afford, leading to a mismatch between available job opportunities and the financial constraints of businesses. This situation is particularly problematic in regions where economic conditions are already strained, limiting employers’ ability to offer attractive compensation packages.
A significant issue highlighted by the contacted employers in the affected regions is that many highly qualified candidates possess skills that are not relevant to other local industries. This situation is exacerbated by the reluctance of some individuals to get retrained, as they believe their existing qualifications and skills are sufficient. On the other hand, some employers feel there is a shortage of skilled labour in certain occupations, particularly in sectors like construction. The prevalence of seasonal workers in this sector complicates the hiring process, as employers struggle to secure workforce willing to remain in the job. Additionally, employers note that there is a lack of vocational training programmes in specific subjects that are in demand, leaving them with a limited pool of qualified candidates. This skills gap makes it challenging for companies to meet their hiring needs, especially during periods when projects are at their peak.
Despite the challenges, employers feel committed to finding ways to support the integration of displaced workers into the local job market. They recognise that these workers may leave the region or the country in search of better opportunities if they do not find suitable employment, with large potential implications for the local economies.
Uncertainty and operational limitations
The NEA faces a significant challenge due to the lack of clarity regarding the evolution and the specificities of the green transition. The timelines for industry closures and potential workforce displacements are not yet defined fully, and there is uncertainty about the exact scope and scale of their impact on industries, businesses, and individuals. Such uncertainty hampers planning and intervention. The absence of clear information impacts the ability of the NEA and local labour offices to prepare, as well as to establish targets and milestones effectively.
The NEA disposes of dedicated funds for specific services and measures in relation to the green transition, as well as for development and research including from the budget for the implementation of the activities pertaining to the National Employment Action Plan, the State budget and the ESF+.3 For the NEA, this is an opportune time to invest in relevant initiatives to facilitate the transition and support the groups that are more likely to be negatively affected, by leveraging available funding sources, including the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).
Successive waves of layoffs from plant closures and other green transition-related shifts require more and adequately prepared staff. Local labour offices in the affected regions may experience increased workloads due to the subsequent waves of layoffs. Although increased staffing needs were not evident initially, the prospect of future layoffs requires capacity to effectively support both job seekers and employers. The NEA has indicated a willingness to allocate additional human resources to local offices to meet these growing demands, nevertheless, a concrete plan to ensure these offices are adequately prepared for these challenges is not yet in place. Despite the importance of equipping staff with the necessary skills and knowledge to support the green transition, the NEA staff and especially local offices employees currently do not receive training, nor they participate in awareness raising activities. While planned, its implementation remains pending.
The NEA’s IT infrastructure currently does not include tools or components to effectively support the green transition. However, the development of a new digital tool with several key components, such as a matching platform and a virtual labour office is underway. Further digitalisation of employment services can play a key role in supporting the labour force amid the green transition by reducing the risk of displaced workers remaining unemployed for extended periods. Modern and AI-based digital tools – especially if utilised early in the unemployment spells or during notice periods – can identify skills gaps, connect workers to targeted and relevant upskilling and reskilling opportunities, and link them with emerging green jobs.
Stakeholder engagement and co‑ordination
Another challenge is to ensure regular and close collaboration among various stakeholders, including ministries and other public agencies, labour unions, chambers of commerce, social partners, private and non-governmental organisations. Although the NEA already co‑operates closely with many stakeholders, ensuring regular and continuous engagement and collaboration is an important challenge due to the complexity and scale of the green transition itself. The shift to a greener economy is a shared responsibility and as such it requires co‑ordinated efforts across multiple sectors and levels, both within the government and beyond.
The NEA can leverage its own experience as along with elements of successful practices from other EU and OECD countries that have undergone similar transitions. By adapting these good practices to fit the Bulgarian context, the NEA can better navigate the complexities of the green transition. The recommendations provided in this section aim to respond to the four challenges described under the previous section and are organised into four areas: i) green strategy and capacity building within the NEA; ii) green taxonomies and building labour market intelligence; iii) ALMPs; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation (Figure 5.2).
Source: Authors’ compilation.
5.3.1. A dedicated green strategy and strengthen internal capacity
To effectively navigate the green transition, the NEA could support the development of a dedicated green strategy or develop and follow a dedicated action plan, following the example of other PES (e.g. Austria, Colombia, Germany). At the very minimum, the NEA could integrate green transition initiatives as a core element within its existing strategies, work programmes, annual reports, and other key documents. The NEA should ensure consistent implementation, proactively address challenges, establish clear accountability, and effectively monitor progress of relevant initiatives. Actions and measures to tackle the green transition must align with national and cross-policy objectives. For this reason, it is important that the NEA continues to actively participate in relevant initiatives, such as specialised working groups, councils, or committees (following for example the PES in Estonia, Germany, Sweden). The NEA should also contribute to broader strategies and action plans, focusing on employment support during the green transition. Furthermore, leveraging the results of relevant research, conducted either in-house or in collaboration with external partners, can provide valuable insights (see section 5.3.2 on labour market intelligence and green taxonomies). These findings not only inform the NEA’s internal strategies but also contribute to shaping national policies involving different stakeholders.
To effectively support the green transition, the NEA must enhance its internal capacity to address the growing demand for workforce support and transition services. A key step in this process is raising awareness and strengthening expertise among PES staff, to ensure they fully understand the implications and opportunities of the green transition. This is essential for providing accurate and relevant guidance to jobseekers and employers. The green transition requires PES staff to develop specialised knowledge in emerging green sectors, green job taxonomies, and market trends. Training programmes can play an important role in this effort, helping staff align their guidance and services with the evolving needs of the green economy. These programmes typically aim to improve staff knowledge of key green transition topics or equip them to implement specific green initiatives (e.g. PES in Austria, Wallonia in Belgium, Colombia France, Lithuania, Korea, Portugal). More concretely, the NEA could follow the example of the Swedish PES by integrating green topics into a broader mandatory training programme and embedding them within its core professional development curriculum, ensuring that staff acquire foundational knowledge and skills related to the green transition. To increase the effectiveness of training, practical tools like case studies, workshops, and simulations could be incorporated. Partnering up with educational institutions such as universities, could enable the NEA to provide more advanced and specialised training for its staff, tailored to the specific demands of the green economy.
The NEA should also contribute to raising awareness about the green transition among jobseekers, employers, and the wider public. PES are increasingly using their websites to share information on topics such as short- and long-term labour market trends, the impact of the green transition on employment, green career guidance, and the range of ALMPs and other services they offer in relation to the green transition (e.g. PES in Estonia, France, Slovenia) as well as emerging opportunities in the green economy (PES in Sweden).
In addition to building capacity, ensuring sufficient staffing levels is key for implementing green initiatives effectively. This involves assessing workforce capacity and reallocating resources when and where necessary and depending on how the transition evolves. While not yet a widespread practice among PES, it is important to allocate dedicated resources to support green transition efforts. These resources can be directed toward the implementation of ALMPs, the development of green strategies, the establishment of specialised offices, awareness campaigns, and research and development initiatives.
The NEA should also leverage modern tools to enhance its capacity to assess workforce skills and align them with evolving labour market needs. Investing in upgrading digital infrastructure, including AI-driven solutions, is essential to address the scale and complexity of the transition. Such tools may include job matching platforms and competency-based occupational information systems designed to identify skills relevant to green jobs. Further digitalisation of employment services can play a key role in supporting the labour force amid the green transition by reducing the risk of displaced workers remaining unemployed for extended periods, especially if utilised early in the unemployment period or during notice periods. The NEA is already in the process of developing new digital tools including an advanced matching platform and AI-powered chatbots. Integrating green transition objectives into these tools, once they become operational, will enable the NEA to maximise their impact, ensuring they effectively support both workforce development and environmental sustainability. Tools that label activities based on their environmental impact and forecasting tools for predicting future labour market trends can be a useful complement to this.
Finally, collaboration is a key pillar of effective green transition management. To maximise its impact, the NEA should enhance co‑ordination and foster closer collaboration, both internally and externally, engaging stakeholders at all levels. Internally, the NEA should continue to ensure communication and alignment between central and local offices to ensure the consistent implementation of policies and the sharing of good practices. Externally, the NEA should broaden its stakeholder engagement to include all relevant actors to address challenges collaboratively, co-create solutions, and drive job creation and economic growth, particularly in regions under transition. Key partners include other public agencies, social partners, employer and employee associations, and regional and municipal authorities. Expanding partnerships to encompass community organisations, renewable energy associations, and academic institutions can further strengthen the NEA’s ability to develop innovative strategies and capitalise on emerging opportunities.
5.3.2. Labour market intelligence and green taxonomies should support the green transition
Like other PES, the NEA can invest in developing green taxonomies and building the labour market intelligence needed to support the green transition. Through data-driven insights, the NEA can guide both jobseekers and employers in navigating the evolving green economy, while ensuring that labour market policies and training programmes are aligned with emerging needs.
A green taxonomy – or in simpler terms a unified language or framework for green occupations, industries, companies, activities and skills – is essential to ensure consistency and clarity in defining roles and competencies relevant to the green transition. Several PES have adjusted their national taxonomies by introducing elements related to the green transition (e.g. the PES in Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands).4 A green taxonomy must be regularly updated to reflect the evolving needs of the labour market, especially as new job roles emerge in the green economy. These regular updates ensure that both the NEA and relevant stakeholders remain informed about the latest trends and skill requirements. The NEA is already considering utilising the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations classification ESCO framework which has recently expanded to incorporate green skills.5 However, it is important that such a framework is adapted to local labour market needs, ensuring accuracy and relevance. To align labour market activities with sustainability goals, the NEA should also integrate green skills into existing tools like job portals and training databases. This integration will make it easier for jobseekers to access relevant green opportunities, and for employers to find the skills they need for the green transition.
Leveraging data-driven approaches can enhance the accuracy of forecasts regarding green skills and market demands. This will enable the NEA to design more relevant programmes and initiatives, helping jobseekers develop the right skills and ensuring employers have access to the talent they need. Data-driven insights can also be used to assess the effectiveness of existing measures, informing necessary adjustments to better meet sustainability goals. In this context, the first key step prior to designing ALMPs is thorough research. The NEA should collect, analyse (in house or in co‑operation with other partners), and use data to forecast the skills needed in the green economy and identify emerging trends. Equally important is the need to understand the impact of the green transition on individuals. Analysing the needs of workers who are already affected or expected to be impacted by the transition is also essential for developing initiatives that meet their needs and address their challenges. Sectoral or cluster-level analyses of jobs and skills needs – particularly those related to greening – can offer useful insights for NEA’s programming (following the PES in Luxembourg, the Netherlands, for example). The findings of such research can be validated through consultations and surveys with employers, employer associations and chambers before the actual programmes are designed. Employer surveys at the local level can also be used to better grasp the barriers to employment specific to the region and take their results into account when designing new programmes (as done, for example, by the Labour Market Diagnosis Mechanism at the Ministry of Labour and Social Security in Greece, the OSKA initiative in Estonia, the SCOPE initiative in Flanders, Belgium, and the Ministry of Employment and Labour in Korea). In addition, to be able to address localised skills shortages, the NEA should consider developing regional roadmaps that align with the specific needs of different areas. Tailored initiatives have the potential to address unique challenges. In order to be effective, they should be informed by ongoing stakeholder consultations and labour market analyses, helping to direct resources to areas where the demand for green skills is highest. Through skills councils or sectoral fora, the NEA can facilitate dialogue on emerging skills demands, ensuring that these perspectives are integrated into policy development and workforce planning.
5.3.3. All categories of ALMPs should be leveraged for the green transition
The closure of coal mines and plants in regions such as Stara Zagora, Kyustendil, Pernik, and other areas in Bulgaria is projected to – directly or indirectly – affect approximately 18 000 workers and their families, along with numerous ancillary industries that depend on coal production and processing. In light of this, the NEA can – in addition to what already exists – provide services and measures specifically related to the green transition to mitigate job losses and facilitate labour market transitions, following the example of other EU and OECD PES.6 The measures can either be newly developed or adapted from existing ones by incorporating specific elements to effectively support the green transition. The ALMPs discussed below use the OECD classification and fall under the following categories: job-search or vocational counselling, job matching and related services; training; employment incentives; sheltered and supported employment and rehabilitation; direct job creation; and start-up incentives. In some cases, these programmes can complement one another and be offered as a co‑ordinated support package, enabling a more comprehensive approach (Box 5.1).
The NEA should implement tailored ALMPs to support regions with varying levels of risk due to coal industry closures. High-risk areas such as Sliven, Yambol, Kardjali, and Blagoevgrad require specific interventions to minimise economic disruptions. A combination of localised support measures, including mobility resources, relocation assistance, and subsidised employment, should be prioritised to support internal mobility of workers moving to high-demand regions like the Thrace economic zone or Black Sea areas.
Several elements should be considered in the design and implementation of ALMPs. Detailed labour market research is essential to understand regional challenges and skill gaps as well as to identify viable sectors for transition. As such, the NEA should use research findings to design relevant programmes aligned with regional and sectoral needs. A clear understanding of green jobs is essential to ensure programme consistency for all – NEA counsellors, employers, and jobseekers – as the absence of an agreed definition may pose implementation challenges. Strong collaboration with stakeholders, including employer associations, municipalities, and training providers, enhances programme reach and success. In other countries, employer associations played a key role in promoting ALMPs and eventually attracting workers to green industries. Similarly, proactive communication and outreach activities, such as dedicated webpages, live events, job fairs, and regular updates can help ensure jobseekers are well-informed about available opportunities and resources provided by the NEA. Furthermore, ALMPs in the context of the green transition should incorporate a long-term sustainability component. This is important given the specific challenges faced by the affected population, to ensure that newly created jobs deliver lasting economic benefits rather than short-term solutions.
Job-search support and counselling can help affected workers to navigate unfamiliar career pathways
Job-search support and counselling services represent a core component of the NEA’s offerings and should remain central – including for affected workers – whether delivered as standalone services or integrated within other ALMPs (as done, for example, by the PES in Sweden). This includes personalised assessments to identify individual strengths and skill gaps, followed by customised guidance. Ideally, such assessments including profiling of affected individuals should take place early on, even though before the layoffs take place. Counselling for displaced workers can be customised to address the specific characteristics of the affected industry and region (following the examples of the PES in Greece and the Slovak Republic). In addition to individual counselling, the NEA should organise group sessions and live webinars at regular intervals to address shared challenges among jobseekers, while providing regular updates on job opportunities and training options. Such sessions can be organised in co‑operation with other stakeholders (as done, for example, by the Brussels PES in Belgium). If in-house capacity for these services is limited, the NEA could explore collaborating with career centres or other institutions to fill the gap and ensure comprehensive and uninterrupted support.
Training programmes for green jobs should be tailored to meet the needs of both low and highly-skilled workers
The NEA is well positioned to establish a robust skill development framework for helping both unemployed workers and employees in declining industries in Bulgaria, transition to emerging sectors and roles within the low-carbon economy. In other countries, the substantial resources provided by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) have played a key role in enabling the launch of training initiatives focusing on the development of green (and digital) skills (e.g. Greece, Ireland, Spain). Some PES develop training programmes tailored to the needs of the unemployed population (e.g. Austria), while other PES offer training programmes to support registered jobseekers and people at risk of job loss simultaneously (e.g. Portugal). Workers with low or outdated skills may need significant training to move into environmentally focused roles. It is therefore essential that upskilling initiatives are inclusive, ensuring that these individuals are not excluded from the green transition and that it does not further deepen the divide between high-skilled and low-skilled workers (OECD, 2024[3]). Some programmes are even more inclusive, targeting not only low-skilled individuals but also broader vulnerable groups, such as low-skilled youth and women (e.g. in Austria, the Slovak Republic, Spain).
Upskilling and reskilling programmes should target growth industries and occupations. In Bulgaria, such industries include high-tech manufacturing in the Thrace economic zone and tourism in Black Sea regions. To maximise effectiveness, these programmes should not be particularly long, balancing speed and market relevance. Retraining initiatives should also incorporate both theoretical and practical components, preparing participants for immediate employment. Vocational training courses hold greater value for employers when they are accompanied by certification, as these validate the skills and competencies acquired by workers. In this respect, the NEA can consider working with independent certification agencies to design and offer certified programmes to enhance the credibility and appeal of the courses, increasing their alignment with industry standards and improving employment prospects for participants. As mentioned above, the NEA should leverage research and firm surveys to identify viable sectors for labour transition and collaborate with large employers or industry clusters to design tailor-made training programmes. Piloting these programmes before they are rolled out nationally, will help fine‑tune their effectiveness while aligning with labour market demands.
While support to low-skilled workers during the green transition is imperative, it is equally important to recognise that a substantial share of those who may need to shift roles in Bulgaria are in fact rather skilled – either academically, or through long-standing industry experience, or both. These individuals may face displacement not because of a broad lack of skills, but because their expertise is tightly bound to practices or technologies being phased out. To support skilled workers affected by the green transition, the NEA can play a crucial role in providing tailored upskilling and reskilling opportunities. This includes developing targeted training programmes that build upon existing competencies while aligning with emerging green technologies. For example, to retrain engineers who have been working in fossil fuel industries to work in renewable energy systems. In this respect, conducting assessments to evaluate workers’ prior knowledge and skills would be particularly beneficial. This approach ensures that training programmes focus on addressing gaps in their expertise, targeting areas where new skills are needed, rather than duplicating knowledge or competencies they already possess. Facilitating the accreditation and recognition of prior learning, which is currently underdeveloped in Bulgaria, would enable individuals to gain formal validation for their expertise and accelerate their transition into new roles. Flexible, modular learning options should be made available to allow experienced professionals to update specific skill sets without needing to start from scratch. Collaborating with employers and training institutions in green sectors will also ensure that programme content remains relevant, demand-driven, and aligned with current innovation trends. Along these lines, the PES in Estonia developed a dedicated programme to support the displaced workers working in the oil shale industry, providing financial aid and skills development possibilities through degree programmes and micro-credentials (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
Training programmes aimed at businesses undergoing transformation can play a key role in preventing workforce displacement and reducing the risk of unemployment. While individuals are the direct beneficiaries of upskilling and reskilling efforts, the effectiveness of these programmes depends heavily on how well they are aligned with the evolving skill needs of employers. Recognising this, several PES in other countries have introduced measures to support companies navigating the green transition. For instance, the Estonian PES offers a dedicated training grant to help employers upskill their workforce in response to green economy demands. In Italy, the New Skills Fund, while not financing the training itself, reimburses employers for the cost of employees’ working hours spent on vocational training. Similarly, Germany’s PES supports companies undergoing structural change by providing a benefit that acts as an income substitute for workers at risk of job loss who engage in formal education (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]). The Portuguese PES offers a dedicated programme aimed at promoting professional training and requalification for workers from companies that are directly or indirectly affected by rising energy costs or undergoing accelerated energy transition and efficiency processes. The programme also targets unemployed individuals, seeking to prevent unemployment, support job retention, and encourage the creation of new employment opportunities, all within the context of advancing the energy transition and improving energy efficiency.
Employment incentives can encourage the development and expansion of green jobs in Bulgaria
Well-designed employment incentives can be a powerful tool for promoting green jobs, especially when tailored to local labour market needs. At the same time, they can encourage employers to hire vulnerable groups, supporting both environmental goals and social inclusion. Drawing from the experiences of other PES, the NEA could consider implementing additional subsidy schemes, where the level and duration of the subsidy varies based on various factors such as the profile of the unemployed. Subsidy amounts and eligibility criteria may also be tailored to address specific regional challenges and target groups, such as displaced workers or underrepresented demographic groups, such as women (as done, for example, by the PES in Estonia and Greece).
Employment incentives can be also used to facilitate first work experience. This is important not only for young people entering the labour market for the first time, but also for individuals who have been disconnected from employment for an extended period, and for those lacking experience in a specific industry or role (see e.g. the experiences by the PES in Australia, Greece, and Spain). These programmes may also be regionally focused, prioritising the regions under transition.
In addition to promoting occupational mobility, employment incentives can also encourage geographic mobility, helping workers relocate to areas with more green job opportunities. Similarly to other PES, the NEA can develop mobility programmes that support relocation from the regions under transition to regions with labour shortages or high demand to help tackle mismatches in the labour market. This type of initiatives can contain financial and logistical support to address practical barriers like housing and relocation costs and encourage participation (e.g. the PES in Greece and Sweden).
Start-up incentives, along with sheltered and supported employment and rehabilitation programmes can work for specific jobseeker groups
The NEA could consider implementing additional types of ALMPs, such as start-up incentives and sheltered and supported employment and rehabilitation programmes. While the use of these measures by other PES has been relatively limited in the context of the green transition, they hold potential to support specific, often smaller groups of jobseekers, including those facing barriers to labour market entry (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
Start-up incentives can encourage entrepreneurial ventures among affected workers. Business support packages comprising financial assistance for business creation, mentoring, training, and incentives for staff recruitment, can help jobseekers establish sustainable green businesses that can in turn generate employment opportunities for other jobseekers within the local community (as done, for example, by the PES in Lithuania).
Sheltered and supported employment and rehabilitation programmes are designed to help individuals with permanent or long-term reduced work capacity stay engaged in the labour market by preparing them for employment or training. When aligned with green tasks or roles, these initiatives can also support their transition into the green economy (see for example the Flemish PES in Belgium).
Sweden’s green transition focuses on transforming and expanding existing sectors for greater sustainability, rather than reducing or phasing out high-emission industries (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]). The green transition and the need for a sustainable labour market are reflected in several strategic documents of the Swedish PES. The PES also participates in a national co‑operation group, led by the Swedish Agency for Economics and Regional Growth, and including several other stakeholders including Sweden’s Innovation Agency, the Swedish National Agency for Higher Vocational Education, the National Agency for Education, and the Universities of Umeå and Luleå. The Swedish PES also collaborates with the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth (Tillväxtverket), an agency under the Ministry of Climate and Enterprise, with 11 offices across Sweden (Tillväxtverket, 2025[5]).
The most prominent initiative of the Swedish PES is the establishment of a dedicated green transition office in Northern Sweden, a region that has emerged as a hub for companies investing in new technologies to adapt to climate change and drive sustainable innovation (Arbetsförmedlingen, 2024[6]).1 Opened in September 2022, the multifaceted mission of the office is to explore innovative solutions to emerging skills shortages, foster strategic collaborations, and identify activities that support not only industrial change but a broader societal transformation. A key focus is also on promoting geographical mobility – both within and outside Sweden. To achieve these goals, the office manager and a team of six dedicated staff work closely with other governmental agencies, municipalities, regional agencies and employers (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
The Swedish PES strategy and operations are strongly evidence‑based, relying on labour market forecasts, long-term sector analyses, and needs assessments to inform cross-policy strategies for the green transition. The mining industry also provides information on future skill demands. The PES further co‑ordinates with Vocational Education and Training (VET) actors, universities, and other education providers at local and regional levels to ensure timely information sharing and relevant action (OECD, 2023[7]).
The PES has also developed a comprehensive approach to training its staff on the green transition. The mandatory introductory training for all new employees covers environmentally sustainable development, including public sector environmental regulations, the PES’s green transition goals, and their link to national environmental targets. This training also raises awareness of the green transition and guides employees on promoting sustainability in their daily work. Additionally, the PES hosts an annual “Sustainable Week” with seminars and workshops on sustainability and the 2030 Agenda.2
In 2020, the Swedish PES expanded its work on labour market taxonomies to include developing green taxonomies by identifying and classifying jobs and skills related to the green economy. The PES is currently piloting a task-based approach to this classification. While allowing for the identification of skills that are key to the green transition, this approach also entails several challenges such as reaching consensus on a common definition of green jobs and tasks, incorporating national labour market differences,3 and overcoming obstacles related to the integration of green taxonomies into PES services. The Swedish PES is also leading a dedicated working group on green jobs and skills taxonomies established in 2021 by the EU PES, to foster collaboration and facilitate the exchange of good practices.
The PES has several IT solutions to enhance their staff ability to support jobseekers and employers in navigating the evolving landscape of the green transition. One such tool is the Occupational Barometer (Yrkesbarometern), which offers insights into labour market trends across different industries, both in the short and medium term. This tool is also available through the PES website. Current work focuses on labelling different activities according to their impact on sustainability. In addition, the PES back-office IT system labels its suppliers as “environmentally sustainable” using green taxonomies to move towards greener procurement.
There is also digital job-search and career planning support in relation to the green transition. For example, the website of the PES includes a list with all job openings covering various industries and roles in northern Sweden. In addition to job opportunities, the website offers supporting information such as information on vocational training options for in-demand professions in Northern Sweden, housing, childcare, and schooling, as well as available newcomer support. It also provides access to the Find an Occupation tool (Hitta yrken) to explore career paths, salaries, and job descriptions, along with inspiring success stories from those who have already relocated to the North (Arbetsförmedlingen, 2025[8]). To raise awareness of green opportunities, the Swedish PES also organises job fairs in collaboration with employers, hosts live webinars for jobseekers across the country and distributes monthly updates to jobseekers in Stockholm. The green transition office also organises the so-called reverse recruitment fairs. For these innovative events, PES staff proactively identify candidates based on employers’ skill needs, arrange their travel and accommodation, facilitate meetings with potential employers, and offer guided tours of the municipality and nearby cities to showcase the local lifestyle and opportunities as an effort to encourage relocation to the North of Sweden. Interested candidates can then apply for available positions. After the event, the PES team follows up with all participants to gather feedback and track outcomes, including whether they’ve secured employment.
Among all PES in OECD and EU countries, Sweden currently has the most extensive package of ALMPs to support the green transition, covering all different categories of ALMPs (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]). Interventions can target registered unemployed and displaced workers while skill levels, regions and other characteristics are also taken into account during their design. All programmes include the component of job-search counselling and matching, and career information and advice. Among the initiatives are the following:
In 2023, the Swedish PES launched an employment incentive programme, offering jobseekers summer jobs in the public sector to experience living and working in the north of Sweden for eight weeks. While travel and housing costs were covered, the jobs themselves were regular, unsubsidised positions. The programme received just eight applicants in its first year, with only four individuals ultimately relocating permanently to the north of the country. In 2024, its second year, interest grew significantly, with over 300 applicants. However, only 35 people were actually able to relocate for jobs, primarily due to housing shortages (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
Another initiative was the Relocate (Skellefteå) geographical mobility programme. The aim of the programme was to assist workers from outside commuting distances to relocate to Skellefteå and Västerbotten, two areas where significant green investments have been made. The programme also aimed at developing methods and models to test different systems and structures on a societal level that would help identify obstacles in labour market mobility.
The PES was also involved in the SIKT 2.0 project run by the Västerbotten region in collaboration with ten different municipalities in Västerbotten and Norrbotten, counties of North Sweden. The objective of the project was to strengthen co‑operation between key stakeholders and attract available workforce to these regions, covering local labour market needs.
The PES also supports mobility more generally, through vocational adult training and education. This flexible model enables individuals to begin their studies in their place of residence for 4‑5 months and then transition to northern regions to gain valuable hands-on experience where the jobs are.
The PES further adjusted its labour market training programmes – which are contracted out to external providers – to the green transition. One such programme offers training for solar panel installers, equipping individuals with the expertise needed to support the growing demand for renewable energy solutions.
Registered unemployed as well as employees who have received a redundancy notice have the possibility to take part in vocational education and training run by municipalities in the northern regions, thereby supporting their entry into green industries.
1. Such companies include for example Stegra, which focuses on large‑scale decarbonisation; LKAB, a leader in sustainable iron ore and mineral production; SSAB, specializing in high-strength, low-carbon steel; and Boliden, which undertakes environmentally responsible mining projects.
2. The 2024 three‑day programme featured awareness-raising sessions on the green transition in the north of Sweden and discussions on taxonomies for labelling green occupations.
3. Some jobs or/and tasks may not be applicable in all countries or regions, creating challenges in applying the same taxonomies or classifications.
Source: Note from study visit to the Swedish Arbetsförmedlingen, April 2025; and (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
5.3.4. The impact of relevant initiatives on advancing the green transition and supporting the workforce’s shift to green jobs needs to be monitored and evaluated
To date, the monitoring indicators for related RRF programmes implemented by the OECD and EU PES have focused on general outputs – such as numbers of participant and overall job placements – without specifically tracking transitions into green economy roles (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]). Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the monitoring of the green transition should measure various aspects, such as the number of individuals trained in green skills, the number of green job postings, the employment outcomes for job seekers looking for green opportunities, the effectiveness of upskilling programmes, and the alignment of training offerings with market demands. The impact of green jobs creation, changes in sectoral employment patterns, and the long-term sustainability of the green workforce are further key areas to monitor.
The first step in establishing a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation framework for the NEA’s ALMPs – including the ones to support the green transition – is to develop clear results chains and well-defined indicators, along with identifying data sources and setting collection frequency.7 In addition to the indicators, the NEA can also set targets depending on its priorities and objectives. Result chains, indicators and targets should be reviewed on a regular basis and adjusted as necessary to ensure their continued relevance, accuracy, and alignment with evolving labour market dynamics and the agency’s policy priorities. In some cases, PES develop their ALMP strategies to support the green transition with a built-in monitoring framework to track implementation from the outset (as done, for example, in Colombia). An indicative results chain for subsidised employment programmes with an explicit focus on the green transition is presented in Figure 5.3.
Source: Authors’ compilation.
Rigorously evaluating the impact of ALMPs, to understand their effectiveness in improving (re)employment rates, job stability, job quality and other relevant metrics, represents a priority area for the NEA. In the context of the green transition, counterfactual impact evaluations can assess whether these policies achieve their intended goals, such as supporting the just transition and helping people move into greener jobs.8 Additionally, counterfactual analysis can help identify areas for improvement, ensuring that ALMPs are more effective in addressing the challenges posed by the green transition. Counterfactual impact evaluations of ALMPs to identify the green-transition related effects are still scarce across EU and OECD PES. The OECD is currently supporting the Slovenian PES to evaluate different ALMPs with the aim to identify their effectiveness in facilitating jobseekers’ transition into green industries and occupations. The findings will help them to refine ALMPs to better support this shift (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
When counterfactual impact evaluations are not possible, monitoring and qualitative assessments can inform policy design. For example, qualitative assessments of the Green Jobs programme in Slovenia highlighted a key challenge due to the lack of a clear and sufficient definition of green jobs. Based on this finding, the programme was adjusted with the addition of a commonly accepted definition (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
Mechanisms for regular review and adaptation of strategies are necessary to maintain the relevance and effectiveness of green transition initiatives. The green transition is a dynamic process, so the NEA must be prepared to adjust its strategy and initiatives in response to emerging trends, technological advancements, and evolving labour market demands. Regular consultations with stakeholders – such as employers, trade unions, educational institutions, and other government agencies – should inform these reviews, ensuring that the strategies remain aligned with current and future needs of the green economy. Mechanisms for adaptation could include periodic evaluations, feedback loops with industry partners, and updates to data analysis methods to reflect new information.
References
[8] Arbetsförmedlingen (2025), Work in Northern Sweden, https://arbetsformedlingen.se/other-languages/english-engelska/find-your-new-job/where-are-the-jobs/work-in-northern-sweden (accessed on 2025).
[6] Arbetsförmedlingen (2024), High demand for skilled European labour in northern Sweden.
[1] Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) (2022), Towards a Just Transition in Bulgaria: Unlocking the Green Transformation Potential of Stara Zagora, Pernik and Kyustendil, https://csd.eu/publications/publication/towards-a-just-transition-in-bulgaria/.
[9] European Commission (2022), Green Skills and Knowledge Concepts: Labelling the ESCO classification, https://esco.ec.europa.eu/en/about-esco/publications/publication/green-skills-and-knowledge-concepts-labelling-esco (accessed on 9 February 2025).
[4] Lauringson, A., I. Pantelaiou and E. Westlake (2025), “The pivotal role of active labour market policies and public employment services in the green transition”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 321, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/94710fbe-en.
[3] OECD (2024), OECD Employment Outlook 2024: The Net-Zero Transition and the Labour Market, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ac8b3538-en.
[7] OECD (2023), Assessing and Anticipating Skills for the Green Transition: Unlocking Talent for a Sustainable Future, Getting Skills Right, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/28fa0bb5-en.
[2] Republic of Bulgaria (2024), Updated Integrated Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030, Ministry of the Environment and Water, https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2020-06/bg_final_necp_main_en_0.pdf.
[5] Tillväxtverket (2025), Tillväxtverket, the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth, https://tillvaxtverket.se/tillvaxtverket/inenglish.2908.html (accessed on 10 April 2025).
← 1. The Just Transition Mechanism, launched by the European Commission in January 2020, is a regional development programme designed to support EU regions most affected by the shift to a carbon-neutral economy under the European Green Deal. It comprises three pillars: a Just Transition Fund, a dedicated just transition scheme under the InvestEU programme, and a new public sector loan facility financed with EU grants and loans from the European Investment Bank.
← 2. Just transition regions will also receive funding from other European sources, including the second and third pillars of the Just Transition Mechanism, the European Social Fund, the Modernisation Fund, the Cohesion Fund, as well as national funds.
← 3. The NEA is directly involved in the implementation of a large part of the activities of the National Employment Action Plan. The NEA is a partner in the implementation of research dedicated to the green transition.
← 4. In some countries like Canada, instead of using formal taxonomies, green job tags have been integrated directly into the official job-matching platform. Employers can label their vacancies with green tags to categorise positions by their environmental impact and showcase eco-friendly workplace attributes. This allows jobseekers to easily filter and find green and climate‑friendly employment opportunities (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
← 5. The European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations classification (ESCO) is among the most widely used frameworks for defining skill requirements by occupation. Funded by the European Commission, ESCO provides a standardised vocabulary for occupations and skills aimed at fostering greater labour market integration across Europe. It includes detailed profiles for more than 3 000 occupations and close to 13 900 skills European Commission (2022[9]).
← 6. Some OECD countries have more universal and flexible ALMPs, without specific objectives or “labels” related to the green transition (e.g. Latvia, Luxembourg and Norway). In countries where ALMP implementation is devolved to sub-national authorities, national-level ALMP design tends to remain broad to allow local governments the flexibility to tailor programmes to regional needs (e.g. Finland and Switzerland) (Lauringson, Pantelaiou and Westlake, 2025[4]).
← 7. A results chain outlines the logical sequence of inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and expected long-term impacts of each ALMP, providing a structured approach to measuring its effectiveness.
← 8. Counterfactual impact evaluations help determine the actual impact of such policies by comparing outcomes for individuals or groups who participated in the programmes with those who did not, isolating the causal effects.