The Bulgarian labour market has made significant progress over the last 10 years. The employment rate rose from below 60% in the early 2010s to 70.1% just before the COVID‑19 pandemic and, after temporary headwinds from the pandemic, to 71% in the second quarter of 2024 (against 70.3% on average in the OECD). Other labour market indicators, especially labour market participation and the unemployment rate, also improved in the past decade. Today, Bulgaria performs in line with the OECD average in employment, unemployment and labour force participation.
Despite these improvements, the Bulgarian labour market, and economy more generally, face major challenges, including very rapid population ageing. As of 2024, 22% of the population is over 65 years (OECD average: 19%), and this share is set to rise to 29% over the next 20 years and to 34% by 2060 (OECD average: 30%). In addition to ageing rapidly, the Bulgarian population is predicted to shrink markedly, especially the working-age population, with major implications for the labour market. According to current projections, the number of 15‑64 year‑olds will fall by almost one‑third between today and 2060, which risks exacerbating labour and skill shortages and undermining the innovative potential of the Bulgarian economy. Especially attracting skilled workers is already a problem today, more so than in most OECD countries.
High emigration has contributed to population decline and ageing as Bulgaria has traditionally been an emigration country. In 2015/16, over 1 million individuals born in Bulgaria were living in an OECD country, compared to a population of about 7 million people living in Bulgaria. Emigrants tend to be prime working-age (25‑54 years-old), which means emigration contributes to a hollowing out of the population age distribution. Since 2020, however, the net migration rate has turned positive in Bulgaria, as the COVID‑19 pandemic led to a sharp decline in emigration and an increase in return migration. Continuing this trend of re‑attracting Bulgarian emigrants is an objective of Bulgarian policy to counteract population decline and ageing.