Macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence in G7 economies

The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon in G7 economies. It builds on our previous work that introduced a micro-to-macro framework by combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates. This paper refines and extends the estimates from the United States to other G7 economies, in particular by harmonising current adoption rate measures among firms and updating future adoption path estimates. Across the three scenarios considered, the estimated range for annual aggregate labour productivity growth due to AI range between 0.4-1.3 percentage points in countries with high AI exposure – due to stronger specialisation in highly AI-exposed knowledge intensive services such as finance and ICT services – and more widespread adoption (e.g. United States and United Kingdom). In contrast, projected gains in several other G7 economies are up to 50% smaller, reflecting differences in sectoral composition and assumptions about the relative pace of AI adoption.