Macroeconomic policies and OECD policy advice during the COVID‑19 pandemic

The global health crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic was met with unprecedented policy responses by governments, including massive fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. This paper documents and reviews the OECD’s macroeconomic assessment and policy advice contained in its economic flagship publication, the Economic Outlook. The three main findings are: First, the recovery was swifter and inflation was stronger and more persistent than anticipated. Second, OECD policy advice evolved from maintaining a very accommodative stance throughout 2020 to reducing fiscal support and adopting a more restrictive monetary policy in late 2021. Third, the policy advice was significantly influenced by real-time uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic and the strength of the recovery due to subsequent upward data revisions.