This report comes at a time when Indonesia is challenged by the outbreak of COVID-19, which will put pressure on local labour markets and risk drawing millions of people into poverty. Before the pandemic hit, the growth path of the Indonesian economy had been remarkable. In the 1960s, it was one of the poorest countries in Southeast Asia but it embarked on a structural transformation, shifting from agriculture to higher value added production, including manufacturing, industry and services. It is the largest economy in Southeast Asia, with a GDP of over USD 1.1 trillion in current prices in 2019. Growth has been accompanied by gains in education and labour market outcomes across the country. The unemployment rate stood at 5.3% in 2019, in line with the OECD average, but higher than the average across ASEAN countries in the same year. Approximately 64.3% of the Indonesian population was employed in 2019, slightly lower than on average across ASEAN countries (67.4%), but higher than the OECD average (57.1%).
These economic and social achievements are put at risk by the COVID-19 crisis. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by -3% in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 global financial crisis. The Indonesian government’s baseline scenario is for economic growth to drop to 2.3%, the lowest in 21 years, with a worst-case scenario of an economic contraction of 0.4% this year. As measures to mitigate the health impacts of COVID-19 are implemented, the labour market has been affected. It is estimated that job losses could be in the range of one to seven million, resulting in almost a doubling of the unemployment rate. As of April 2020, the Ministry of Manpower reported that 1.5 million workers had already been put on unpaid leave or laid off. Preliminary estimates indicate that the poverty rate could increase to 12.8% in 2020, with an additional 9.5 million people falling below the national poverty line.
The government has set ambitious targets for the future with the goal that Indonesia will enter the world’s top five economies by 2045. To achieve this, the government has identified five national priorities, which include infrastructure investment, regulatory simplification, civil service modernisation, economic transformation, and human capital development.
The large majority of the Indonesian population is today literate, with 60% of the working age population having completed primary or junior secondary education. That being said, individuals with higher levels of education achieve substantially higher income levels than the rest of the population. The average schooling years of the bottom 20% of the income distribution are still almost half the schooling years of the top 20%, amounting to 6.4 and 11 years respectively. The current COVID-19 crisis risks negatively affecting education outcomes in Indonesia and increasing disparities in access to education across segments of the population. The crisis is likely to lead to increased school drop-outs, particularly affecting the near poor and vulnerable, who might leave education to economically support their family.
Informality remains a significant challenge in Indonesia, where Statistics Indonesia estimates that 43.8% of non-agriculture employment and 87.5% of agriculture employment are in the informal economy in 2019. Informal jobs typically offer low quality, unproductive and poorly paid employment opportunities with little or no social protection. As several provinces went into lockdown to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak, this could deeply affect informal workers, who would have no income or emergency medical leave. This includes those working in shops, street food vendors, and vendors in traditional markets. In addition, one in two workers in Indonesia is in conditions of vulnerability, being a contributing family worker or own-account worker.
Differences in employment outcomes are significant across segments of the population. Young people, in particular those aged 15-19, have substantially higher unemployment rates than the rest of the population. In 2019, 22.6% of youth are not in employment, education, or training (NEET), and the proportion is higher among young women (28.7%). Comparisons with other ASEAN countries show that the share of 15-24 year-olds who are neither employed, nor in education or training is higher in Indonesia than in most other countries in the region (20.1% in Brunei Darussalam, 18.8% in the Philippines, 14.9% in Thailand, 14.6% in Viet Nam, and 4.3% in Singapore). There are also substantial gender gaps in pay and labour force participation in Indonesia. By some estimates, the gender pay gap amounts to around 20% in Indonesia, compared to less than 15% in the OECD. Women are also more likely to be in low-paid work than men in Indonesia, with the share of full-time male workers being in low-pay amounting to 20% compared to almost 40% for women. While male labour force participation is among the highest across ASEAN, only about one in two women participate in the labour force in Indonesia, among the lowest in the region. Projections show that Indonesia is unlikely to reach its Group of Twenty (G20) target of decreasing the gender gap in participation by 25% between 2014 and 2025.
The national picture hides differences across provinces within Indonesia, with some rural and remote provinces, especially in the east of the country, suffering from high illiteracy rates and lower educational attainment, as well a significant prevalence of agricultural employment and informality. For example, data from Statistics Indonesia show that about 22% of the population was illiterate in Papua in 2019. Looking at unemployment rates, there are large provincial variations ranging from a low of 1.5% in Bali to a high of 8.1% in Banten in 2019. Local institutions will be at the front-line of the crisis response across Indonesia, therefore there is an opportunity to build the capacities of employment and training institutions to ensure they effectively contribute to the recovery.
The Government of Indonesia has responded well to meet the initial public health needs. In March 2020, the government established a COVID-19 task force chaired by the head of the National Disaster Mitigation Agency with senior representatives from the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises, Indonesian Military, and the National Police. The central government also issued a regulation to allow local governments to formally restrict the movement of people and goods in their territory with approval from the minister of health. Measures to bring the COVID-19 pandemic under control are summarised in Table 1.1.
The government has announced measures worth USD 32.4 billion to fund substantial increases in public spending on health, social assistance to the poor and vulnerable, and support to businesses. Prior to COVID-19, the government mandated that 5% of the total national budget be spent on health. Accordingly, USD 7.6 billion had originally been allocated for 2020. To face the pandemic crisis, an additional USD 4.3 billion was allocated to health spending. Social assistance measures include family support programmes, basic food assistance, electricity subsidies and house incentives among others, for a total of USD 6.4 billion. The government has also simplified requirements for imports and exports, including raw materials, to increase the competitiveness of enterprises.