Effective Carbon Rates 2025

Annexe B. Data sources and methodology for Emissions Trading Systems modelling

This Annex provides the main assumptions for the modelling of ETS coverage and free allowance shares. It also details the data sources for ETS-covered emissions, free allowances and permit prices.

General methodology: Permit prices, coverage and free allowance shares

Permit prices

Permit prices are calculated as the average auction prices (primary market prices) across the year under consideration (e.g. 2023 for ECR 2023), if the data is available. The average is taken to smooth price fluctuations, as permit prices experience volatility throughout the year. For some emissions trading systems, price information is only available for part of the year, in which case an average across the available dates is calculated, or for a single auction or date, in which case this price is used. Due to data availability, secondary market prices rather than auction prices are used in the calculation for certain systems.

Coverage

For most systems, ETS coverage is estimated by reference to verified emissions data at facility level or at aggregated facility level (e.g. firm). This emission data is then matched where possible at a subsector-level, and if not at a sector-level (e.g. using ISIC classification). Where this data is not available, broader measures are used such as the total emissions covered or the share of sectoral emissions covered. Data availability and sources are exposed below. It is not possible however, to distinguish coverage by fuels: the implicit assumption is thus that at the subsector level, the composition of fuel use is the same for ETS-covered entities and entities not subject to an ETS.

Free allowance shares

Where verified emissions data is available, it may be the case that free allowance data also is (see below, Table A B.1). In this case, the share of freely allocated allowances in total verified emissions is calculated at the subsector and sector level according to the following formula (where i is an entity, FA are the free allowances and VE are the verified emissions):

$\frac{\sum _{i\in sector\mathrm{ }or\mathrm{ }subsector}{FA}_i}{\sum _{i\in sector\mathrm{ }or\mathrm{ }subsector}{VE}_i}$

If no free allowance data is available, other methodologies are used, e.g. relying on the quantity of allowances auctioned or the free allowance allocation formula. The share may generally then only be calculated at the system-level and used as an approximation for sector-level shares (if many sectors are covered by the ETS).

In a few cases, free allowances are modelled as decreasing the share of emissions covered or as not impacting the average price signal (i.e. the EACR). If free allowances are not tradable but may be used for compliance, then this is modelled as decreasing the share of emissions effectively covered. If free allowances are adjusted ex-post to equal verified emissions, then this is also modelled as decreasing emissions effectively covered (in effect, this is modelled as equivalent to reporting emissions without pricing them). In both of these cases, the free allowance allocation rules do not maintain the marginal price signal: there is no opportunity cost of emitting as much as the free allowance allocation received. If free allowances should be consigned to auctions and their revenues used for programs to reduce GHG emissions or to return to ratepayers as non-volumetric credits (as in the California Cap-and-Trade Program and in the Washington Cap-and-Invest Program), then these are modelled as not affecting EACRs (consistent with Flues and Van Dender (2017[12])). Table A B.3 presents more details on free allowance allocation methods.

Country-level data sources and information

This report covers 34 ETSs in 2023 and this section provides information on the sources and information used for the modelling of these ETSs in 2023. It starts by presenting the data source used for permit prices in each ETS, the availability or not of verified emissions data (and if not available the alternative sources used for the modelling of ETS coverage) and of free allowance allocation data (Table A B.1). It also presents the sectors covered by each ETS (according to the CPET classification of sectors – see Table A A.1) and the greenhouse gases covered (Table A B.2). Finally, it also presents the free allowance allocation methods in each system (Table A B.3)

The following table presents free allowance allocation methods across the 34 ETSs analysed in this report, and takes note of instances where additional restrictions or flexibilities apply. In particular, it highlights where traditional benchmarking methods are complemented with considerations accounting for changes in production.

Table A B.1. Sources for permit prices, verified emissions and free allowance amounts

34 ETSs, 2023

System	Permit Price		Verified Emissions		Free allowances
	Source	Primary or secondary market	Source	Level of information***	Source
Australia Safeguard Mechanism	Safeguard Mechanism default prescribed unit price for 2023-24 (https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reporting/national-greenhouse-energy-reporting-scheme/safeguard-mechanism#toc_8)	Secondary	Clean Energy Regulator website	Entity-level	Clean Energy Regulator website
Austrian ETS	Legislation (https://www.bmf.gv.at/themen/klimapolitik/carbon-markets/nationales-emissionszertifikatehandelsgesetz-2022-(NEHG-2022)/entwicklung-und-handelsphasen.html)	Primary	Data provided by the Austrian Ministry of Finance	Total	n.a.
Canada - Alberta	ICAP (factsheet), as accessed in January 2025.	Primary	Alberta Government website	Sector-level	Alberta Government website
Canada - New Brunswick	ICAP (factsheet), as accessed in January 2025.	Primary	Modelled using information in ICAP (2025)	Total	Modelled
Canada - Newfoundland and Labrador	ECCC (2021), Update to the Pan-Canadian Approach to Carbon Pollution Pricing 2023-2030	Primary	Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Environment and Climate Change	Entity-level	Modelled
Canada - Nova Scotia	ICAP (factsheet), as accessed in January 2025.	Primary	Modelled by matching the list of regulated facilities (Climate Change in Nova Scotia website) with emissions data from the GHG Reporting Program (GHGRP)	Entity-level	Modelled
Canada - Ontario	ECCC (2021), Update to the Pan-Canadian Approach to Carbon Pollution Pricing 2023-2030	Primary	Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Park website	Entity-level	Modelled
Canada - Québec	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Ministry for the Fight Against Climate Change website)	Primary	Québec Ministère de l’Environnement, de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques, de la Faune et des Parcs website	Entity-level	Data provided by Direction du marché du carbone
Canada - Saskatchewan	ECCC (2021), Update to the Pan-Canadian Approach to Carbon Pollution Pricing 2023-2030	Primary	Modelled using information in ICAP (2025)	Total	Modelled
Canada FOBPS *	ECCC (2021), Update to the Pan-Canadian Approach to Carbon Pollution Pricing 2023-2030	Primary	Modelled using coverage shares from the Pan-Canadian Approach to Pricing Carbon Pollution report combined with the latest provincial GHG inventories	Total	Modelled
China - Beijing	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the China Beijing Environmental Exchange)	Primary	Modelled based on ECR (2016), updated using changes in regulation and list of covered entities	Total	Modelled
China - Chongqing	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Chongqing Carbon Emissions Trading Centre)	Secondary	Modelled based on ECR (2016), updated using changes in regulation and list of covered entities	Total	Modelled
China - Fujian	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Haixia Equity Exchange)	Secondary	Modelled based on ECR (2016), updated using changes in regulation and list of covered entities	Total	Modelled
China - Guangdong	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the China Emissions Exchange (Guangzhou))	Secondary	Modelled based on ECR (2016), updated using changes in regulation and list of covered entities	Total	Modelled
China - Hubei	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the China Hubei Emission Exchange)	Primary	Modelled based on ECR (2016), updated using changes in regulation and list of covered entities	Total	Modelled
China - Shanghai	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Shanghai Environmental and Energy Exchange)	Primary	Modelled based on ECR (2016), updated using changes in regulation and list of covered entities	Total	Modelled
China - Shenzhen	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the China Emissions Exchange (Shenzhen))	Secondary	Modelled based on ECR (2016), updated using changes in regulation and list of covered entities	Total	Modelled
China - Tianjin	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Tianjin Climate Exchange)	Secondary	Modelled based on ECR (2016), updated using changes in regulation and list of covered entities	Total	Modelled
China national ETS	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Shanghai Environmental and Energy Exchange)	Secondary	Modelled using legislation	Total	Modelled
EU ETS	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (EUA auction price and revenue data provided by the EEX Group)	Primary	European Union Registry	Entity-level	European Union Registry
German ETS	Legislation (https://www.bundesumweltministerium.de/en/law/fuel-emissions-trading-act)	Primary	German Emissions Trading Authority ( DEHSt ) website	Total	n.a.
Indonesia ETS	ICAP Status Report (2025)	Secondary	Data provided by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources	Total	Modelled
Japan - Saitama	Tokyo Metropolitan Government (https://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/documents/d/kankyo/2024_05)	Secondary	Saitama Prefecture website	Total	Modelled
Japan -Tokyo	Tokyo Metropolitan Government (https://www.kankyo.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/documents/d/kankyo/2024_05)	Secondary	Tokyo Metropolitan Government website	Total	Modelled
Kazakhstan ETS	ICAP Status Report (2025)	Secondary	Modelled using information in ICAP (2025)	Total	National Carbon Quota Plan for 2022-2025
Korea ETS	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Korea Exchange)	Secondary	Emissions Trading Registry System, Greenhouse Gas inventory and Research Center of Korea (GIR) website	Entity-level	Emissions Trading Registry System, Greenhouse Gas inventory and Research Center of Korea (GIR) website
Mexico ETS	n.a.	n.a.	Modelled using information in ICAP (2025)	Total	n.a.
New Zealand ETS	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (supplied by Jarden)	Secondary	New Zealand Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) website	Entity-level	New Zealand Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) website
Swiss ETS	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Swiss Emissions Registry)	Primary	Swiss emissions registry (stationary sources), Federal Office for the Environment FOEN website (aviation)	Entity-level	Swiss emissions registry (stationary sources), Federal Office for the Environment FOEN website (aviation)
UK ETS	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) platform)(1)	Primary	UK Emissions Trading Registry(2)	Entity-level	UK Emissions Trading Registry1
United States - California	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the Air Resources Board website)	Primary	Californian Air Resource Board (ARB) website	Entity-level
United States - Massachusetts	Massachusetts auction reports (https://www.mass.gov/lists/massachusetts-carbon-allowance-registry-document-repository)	Primary	Modelled using RGGI information	Entity-level	n.a.
United States - RGGI **	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (retrieved from the RGGI website)	Primary	RGGI CO2 Allowance Tracking System (RGGI COATS)	Entity-level	n.a.
United States - Washington	ICAP Allowance Price Explorer (end-of-day and weekly average data is provided by ICE)(1)	Primary	Department of Ecology, State of Washington website	Entity-level	Clean Energy Regulator website

Note: * Over the course of 2023, the federal OBPS was operational in Manitoba, Nunavut, Prince Edward Island and Yukon.

** RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative): in 2023, it operates with ten the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Virginia.

*** Depending on the system, the term “entity” is used to refer to installations, firms, aviation operators or fuel distributors.

n.a.: not available or not applicable.

(1) Disclaimer on use or reference to ICE Data: intercontinental exchange, inc., ice data llp, and/or any of its affiliates (“ice group”), makes no warranty, express or implied, either as to the results to be obtained from the use of ice futures data and/or the figure at which ice futures data stands at any particular time on any particular day or otherwise. The use of ice futures data is provided on an ‘as is’ basis and ice group disclaims all liability for any loss or damage whatsoever incurred by the use of ice futures data herein, even if ice group has been advised of the possibility of such losses, damages or expenses. Any distribution or commercial use of ice futures data is prohibited without the prior written consent of ice data llp.

(2) Complemented by European Union Registry for Northern Ireland power plants still under the EU ETS.

Source: ICAP (2025[13]) and Authors.

The following table presents coverage of sectors (according to the CPET classification) and GHGs by ETS. Coverage can in some cases be minimal and does not indicate that the whole of the sector’s emissions are covered.

Table A B.2. Sectors and GHGs covered by ETSs

34 ETSs, 2023

System	CPET sectors	"Other GHGs" covered	GHG emissions
Australia Safeguard Mechanism	Buildings, Electricity, Industry, Off-road and Road transport (point source)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and from industrial processes; CH4 from energy use, from industrial processes, from fugitive emissions and from waste treatment, disposal and remediation and wastewater handling; N2O from energy use, from industrial processes and from wastewater handling; F-gases from industrial processes
Austrian ETS	Agriculture and fisheries, Buildings, Industry, Off-road and Road transport (upstream)	Yes	CO2, CH4 and N2O from energy use
Canada - Alberta	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O, NF3, SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from energy extraction and use and from industrial processes
Canada - New Brunswick	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O, NF3, SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from energy extraction and use and from industrial processes
Canada - Newfoundland and Labrador	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O, NF3, SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from energy extraction and use and from industrial processes
Canada - Nova Scotia	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O, SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from energy use and industrial processes
Canada - Ontario	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O, SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from energy use and industrial processes
Canada - Québec	Electricity (point source and downstream), Buildings, Industry, Off-road transport (point source and upstream), Agriculture and fisheries and Off-road and Road transport (upstream)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O, NF3, SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from energy use and industrial processes
Canada - Saskatchewan	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O, NF3, SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from energy extraction and use and from industrial processes
Canada FOBPS *	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O, SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from energy use and industrial processes
China - Beijing	Buildings, Industry, Road transport (point source)(1),(2)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and from industrial processes
China - Chongqing	Industry (point source)(1),(2)	Yes	CO2, CH4, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 from energy use and from industrial processes
China - Fujian	Industry, Offroad transport (point source)(1),(2)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and from industrial processes
China - Guangdong	Buildings, Industry, Off-road transport (point source)(1),(2)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and from industrial processes
China - Hubei	Buildings, Industry (point source) (1),(2)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and from industrial processes
China - Shanghai	Buildings, Industry, Off-road transport (point source) (1),(2)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and from industrial processes
China - Shenzhen	Buildings, Industry, Off-road and Road transport (point source) (1),(2)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and from industrial processes
China - Tianjin	Buildings, Industry (point source) (1),(2)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and from industrial processes
China national ETS	Electricity(3)	Yes	CO2 (from energy use)
EU ETS	Agriculture and fisheries,(4) Buildings,(4) Electricity, Industry, Off-road transport (point source)	Yes	CO2 from energy use, CO2 from industrial processes, N2O from adipic acid, nitric acid and glyoxylic acid production, PFCs from aluminium production
German ETS	Agriculture and fisheries, Buildings, Industry, Off-road and Road transport (upstream)	No	CO2 (from energy use)
Indonesia ETS	Electricity (point source)	Yes	CO2, N2O and CH4 (from energy use)
Japan - Saitama	Buildings, Industry (point source), Electricity (downstream)	No	CO2 from energy use
Japan -Tokyo	Buildings, Industry (point source), Electricity (downstream)	No	CO2 from energy use
Kazakhstan ETS	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes
Korea ETS	Buildings, Electricity, Industry, Off-road and road transport (point source), Electricity and Heat (downstream)	Yes	CO₂, CH4, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 from energy use and industrial processes
Mexico ETS	Electricity, Industry (point source)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and industrial processes
New Zealand ETS	All CPET sectors (upstream for all energy-related emissions, as fuel distributors are covered, and point source for sectors such as industry and waste)	Yes	CO2, CH₄, N₂O from energy, waste and industrial processes and SF₆, HFCs, PFCs from industrial processes.
Swiss ETS	Electricity, Industry, Off-road transport (point source)	Yes	CO2 from energy use and industrial processes; N2O, CH4 and F-gases from industrial processes
UK ETS	Buildings,(5) Electricity, Industry, Off-road transport (point source)	Yes	CO2 from energy use, CO2 from industrial processes, N2O from adipic acid, nitric acid and glyoxylic acid production, PFCs from aluminium production
United States - California	Electricity (point source and downstream), Buildings, Industry, Off-road transport (point source and upstream), Agriculture and fisheries and Off-road and Road transport (upstream)	Yes	CO2, CH4, N2O from energy use and industrial processes
United States - Massachusetts	Electricity (point source)	No	CO2 (from energy use)
United States - RGGI **	Electricity (point source)	No	CO2 (from energy use)
United States - Washington	Electricity (point source), Buildings, Industry, Off-road transport (point source and upstream), Off-road and Road transport (upstream)	Yes	CO2, CH4, N2O from energy and industrial processes, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3, other fluorinated GHGs from industrial processes

Note: * Over the course of 2023, the federal OBPS was operational in Manitoba, Nunavut, Prince Edward Island and Yukon.

** RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative): in 2023, it operates with ten the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Virginia.

(1) Due to data limitations or negligeable estimated coverage, the coverage methodology only applies only to: (i) Industry for Chongqing, Fujian, Hubei, Shenzhen and Tianjin; (ii) Industry and buildings for Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai.

(2) Sold heat and electricity may also be covered downstream in Chinese Pilot ETSs.

(3) The Chinese national ETS may also cover certain electricity autoproduction installations, though not modelled here.

(4) Agricuture and fisheries as well as Buildings (commercial and public services installations) are covered through stationary combustion (with >20 MW thermal rated input). This does not refer to upstream system that would cover fuels used in these sectors. In the majority of countries covered by the EU ETS, this concerns less than 10 installations.

(5) This refers to the coverage of certain commercial and public services installations’ emissions at point source (combustion of fuels in

installations with a total rated thermal input exceeding 20 MW) and this coverage represents a limited share of emissions in the UK buildings sector (less than 1% of the sector’s emissions in the UK). This does not refer to upstream system that would cover fuels used in the buildings sector.

Source: ICAP (2025[13]) and Authors.

The following table presents free allowance allocation methods across the 34 ETSs analysed in this report, and takes note of instances where additional restrictions or flexibilities apply. In particular, it highlights where traditional benchmarking methods are complemented with considerations accounting for changes in production.

Table A B.3. Free allowance allocation methods in ETSs

34 ETSs, 2023

System	Method	Note
Australia Safeguard Mechanism	output-based benchmarking	Unless the baseline is of less than 100,000 tCO₂e (in which case a default of 100,000 tCO₂e is applied).
Austrian ETS	n.a.
Canada - Alberta	output-based benchmarking
Canada - New Brunswick	output-based benchmarking
Canada - Newfoundland and Labrador	output-based benchmarking
Canada - Nova Scotia	output-based benchmarking
Canada - Ontario	output-based benchmarking
Canada - Québec	benchmarking
Canada - Saskatchewan	output-based benchmarking
Canada FOBPS *	output-based benchmarking
China - Beijing	output-based benchmarking and grandparenting	Upper- (120%) and lower-bounds (80%) for the share of free allowances in entities’ verified emissions for the 2022 and 2023 compliance years.
China - Chongqing	output-based benchmarking, grandparenting and “equivalence method” (free allowances are adjusted ex-post to equal verified emissions)
China - Fujian	output-based benchmarking and grandparenting	For sectors using the benchmarking method allocation has upper and lower bound (resp. 120% and 80% of verified emissions). For sectors using historical intensity methods, the surplus or shortfall is limited to 3 to 10% of verified emissions.
China - Guangdong	output-based benchmarking and grandparenting	The quota for 2023 was distributed partially free of charge and partially for a fee.
China - Hubei	output-based benchmarking and grandparenting
China - Shanghai	output-based benchmarking and grandparenting
China - Shenzhen	output-based benchmarking and grandparenting
China - Tianjin	output-based benchmarking and grandparenting
China national ETS	output-based benchmarking
EU ETS	benchmarking	There are revised rules applying from Phase 4 covering adjustments to free allocation when an installation makes a significant change to its production. The threshold for adjustments is a 15% increase or decrease in production. Adjustments to free allocation are issued based on yearly activity data reports that operators submit to national competent authorities.
German ETS	n.a.
Indonesia ETS	output-based benchmarking
Japan - Saitama	grandparenting
Japan -Tokyo	grandparenting
Kazakhstan ETS	output-based benchmarking
Korea ETS	benchmarking and grandparenting
Mexico ETS	equal to verified emissions
New Zealand ETS	benchmarking
Swiss ETS	benchmarking	Free allocation levels may be updated annually if production levels deviate at least 15 percentage points from the 2014 to 2018 base years.
UK ETS	benchmarking	Installations eligible for free allowances must submit a verified Activity Level Report. If the data in the Activity Level Report shows an increase or decrease in activity of 15% or more from historical activity levels (calculated based on the previous two years’ activity levels), their free allocation will be recalculated.
United States - California	output-based benchmarking for industrial facilities,(1)(2) grandparenting for natural gas facilities, forecast methodology for electrical distribution utilities (fixed amount of the cap is distributed to the utilities according to each utility’s demand forecast, their supply forecast, and additional information)	Allowances receive by electricity distributors and natural gas suppliers may not be traded. Part can be used for compliance and part should be consigned to auctions, and the resulting auction proceeds used for programs to reduce GHG emissions or return the proceeds to ratepayers as non-volumetric credits.
United States - Massachusetts	n.a.
United States - RGGI **	n.a.
United States - Washington	output-based benchmarking for industrial facilities,(1)(2) grandparenting for natural gas facilities, forecast methodology for electrical distribution utilities (fixed amount of the cap is distributed to the utilities according to each utility’s demand forecast, their supply forecast, and additional information)	Allowances receive by electricity distributors and natural gas suppliers may not be traded. Part can be used for compliance and part should be consigned to auctions, and the resulting auction proceeds used for programs to reduce GHG emissions or return the proceeds to ratepayers as non-volumetric credits.

Note: * Over the course of 2023, the federal OBPS was operational in Manitoba, Nunavut, Prince Edward Island and Yukon.

** RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative): in 2023, it operates with ten the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Virginia.

(1) Industrial allocations are adjusted if the total sum of freely allocated allowances exceeds the cap.

(2) A small number of facilities may receive free allowances based on grandparenting.

n.a.: not applicable (since no free allowances).

Source: ICAP (2025[13]) and Authors.

References

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