Domestically produced CBAM goods represent a fraction of Romania’s industrial production in 2023, which is a factor that limits the effect of the phasing out of free EU ETS allowances for the country's industry. The production of CBAM goods (excluding electricity) in Romania represented EUR 4.4 billion in 2023, about 7% of GVA of the industry sector (excluding construction) or 1.4% of Romania’s GDP (Figure A B.1). The production value of CBAM sectors represented about 13% of the GVA of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying subsectors, these subsectors accounting for about 72% of GVA of the industry sector. The industry sector represented around 20% of Romania’s GDP in 2023. Iron and steel, cement and aluminium products represented the overwhelming majority of CBAM goods produced in Romania in 2023 in value (Figure A B.2).
Advancing the Implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
Note: The grouping of goods into sectors is the one of the CBAM Regulation 2023/956. Combined nomenclature (CN) codes were matched with PRODCOM codes at 8-digit level. Values are expressed in EUR billion and quantities in million tonnes for iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers and hydrogen, and terawatt hours (TWh) for electricity.
Source: Authors, based on Eurostat (2026[4]).
Exposure to extra-EU imports of CBAM goods varies across EU Member States, with Romania illustrating stronger exposure in cement and fertilisers sectors. In 2024, Romania imported EUR 11.5 billion of CBAM goods, of which 34% originated from extra-EU countries (Figure A B.3). In quantities, 53% of CBAM goods imported in Romania originated from extra-EU countries. Iron and steel dominated Romania’s extra-EU CBAM imports, accounting for 68% of their value, followed by fertilisers (12%), aluminium (9%), electricity (8%), and hydrogen. Sectoral exposure was highest for cement, fertilisers and iron and steel, with respectively 82%, 62% and 51% of extra-EU imports, compared with 20% for electricity, 18% for aluminium, and 6% for hydrogen.
Note: The grouping of goods into sectors is the one of the CBAM Regulation 2023/956. Values are expressed in EUR million and quantities in million tonnes for iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers and hydrogen, and TWh for electricity.
Source: Authors, based on Eurostat (2025[5]).
The import profile of CBAM goods from extra-EU countries differs across EU Member States, with Romania illustrating a strong concentration in a few partner countries and sectors. In 2024, Türkiye was Romania’s main extra-EU country of origin for CBAM goods, with imports of about EUR 1.6 billion, concentrated in the iron and steel and aluminium sectors (Figure A B.4). Serbia and China also represented important exports of CBAM goods to Romania. Other main extra-EU countries of origin include Ukraine in the cement sector, the Russia Federation (hereinafter ‘Russia’) in the fertilisers sector (Figure A B.5).
Note: The grouping of goods into sectors is the one of the CBAM Regulation 2023/956. Only extra-EU countries of origin that exported for more than EUR 20 million of CBAM goods to Romania in 2024 are shown. Other extra-EU countries are aggregated under ‘Rest of extra-EU’.
Source: Authors, based on Eurostat (2025[5]).
Note: The grouping of goods into sectors is the one of the CBAM Regulation 2023/956.
Source: Authors, based on Eurostat (2025[5]).
Extra-EU exports of CBAM goods of EU Member States may be exposed to a varying risk of export carbon leakage risk. Such risk may arise when EU producers export CBAM goods to extra-EU markets where competing goods do not face an effective carbon price comparable to that of the EU ETS (Teusch et al., 2024[6]). The way in which this risks would materialise depends on several factors including the EU Member States export profiles, and composition of foreign markets. To address this risk, the EU ETS Directive 2003/87/EC (European Parliament and Council, 2024[7]) mobilises additional Innovation Fund support for CBAM sectors, including by earmarking the equivalent of revenues from the auctioning of EU ETS free allowances phased out over 2026-2030 and through early dedicated project calls. The EU ETS Directive 2003/87/EC and CBAM Regulation 2023/956 also require periodic European Commission assessments of this risk, with legislative proposals if needed and compatible with international trade rules. In December 2025, the European Commission proposed the establishment of a Temporary Decarbonisation Fund to deliver financial support to EU producers of CBAM goods and further mitigate carbon leakage risks, including export carbon leakage (European Commission, 2025[8]).
Romania illustrates a heterogeneous exposure to export carbon leakage risk. In 2024, around one-quarter of its CBAM goods exports went to extra-EU countries, amounting to EUR 1.7 billion out of EUR 6.5 billion in total CBAM goods exports. This aggregate figure masks important sectoral differences, with iron and steel accounting for the largest value of Romania’s extra-EU exports of CBAM goods, at EUR 1.1 billion (Figure A B.6).
Note: The grouping of goods into sectors is the one of the CBAM Regulation 2023/956. Values are expressed in EUR million and quantities in million tonnes for iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers and hydrogen, and TWh for electricity.
Source: Authors, based on Eurostat (2025[5]).
References
[8] European Commission (2025), Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing the Temporary Decarbonisation Fund, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52025PC0990.
[7] European Parliament and Council (2024), Directive 2003/87/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 13 October 2003 establishing a system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Union, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A02003L0087-20240301.
[4] Eurostat (2026), Sold production, exports and imports [DS-056120], https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/DS-056120/legacyMultiFreq/table?lang=en (accessed on 28 May 2026).
[5] Eurostat (2025), EU trade since 2002 by HS2-4-6 and CN8 [DS-059322], https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/comext/newxtweb/.
[1] Eurostat (2025), Gross domestic product (GDP) and main components (output, expenditure and income) [nama_10_gdp], https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nama_10_gdp/default/table?lang=en.
[2] Eurostat (2025), Gross value added and income by detailed industry (NACE Rev.2) [nama_10_a64], https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/product/page/nama_10_a64.
[3] Eurostat (2025), Sold production, exports and imports [DS-056120], https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/DS-056120/legacyMultiFreq/table?lang=en.
[6] Teusch, J. et al. (2024), “Carbon prices, emissions and international trade in sectors at risk of carbon leakage: Evidence from 140 countries”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1813, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/116248f5-en.