Accurate migration forecasting is critical for effective policymaking, as it provides essential insights into the volume, composition and timing of migration flows. It plays a crucial role in guiding policy decisions, resource allocation, and preparedness for potential migration surges, including contingency planning and possible counter measures.
The key purposes of migration forecasting include:
1. Guiding Budget and Resource Planning
Forecasts help governments anticipate the number and profile and needs of incoming migrants, enabling precise allocation of budgets for housing, health and education services, as well as integration support. They also inform staffing needs for border management and visa requests, processing of asylum applications, and provision of relevant integration services including language course. Additionally, they inform financing needs related to allowances for asylum seekers, housing, and other forms of integration support more broadly.
2. Supporting Contingency Planning and Crisis Preparedness
Forecasting enables authorities to prepare for the unexpected by developing contingency plans or by taking proactive measures to minimise the risk of certain scenarios. This is particularly important when countries are at risk of instrumentalisation of migration. This is also relevant for countries experiencing transformative policy changes with unexpected consequences on regular and irregular migration (e.g. change in membership to the EU free mobility area).
3. Informing Fee‑Based Migration Schemes
A number of countries use visa fees to finance their migration and integration activities. One extreme example is the United States where the budget of the Department of Homeland Security is directly linked to the number of entries in the current year. This may be the case as well for a number of specialised agencies (e.g. for international students) or specific support services that are fee based (For example, on recognition of foreign qualification). In such case, it is important to anticipate future flows for budgetary purpose or to shape future recruitment strategies (see Box 3.1 for an example).
4. Enhancing Public Communication
Migration forecasting also supports informed public debate by grounding migration discussions in data. By sharing forecast-based expectations and planned responses, authorities can demonstrate preparedness, reduce misinformation, and help frame migration governance as manageable rather than a crisis mode. This contributes to reinforcing public trust and strengthening political stability.
5. Strengthening International Co‑operation and Burden Sharing
Forecasts play an important role in co‑ordinating responses across destination countries but also with countries of origin and transit. Forecasting helps anticipate pressure points and enables fair burden sharing mechanisms such as relocation or financial contributions (for example, the Pact on Migration and Asylum in the EU context). At the global level, better forecasting can also contribute to addressing the root causes of forced displacement.