From 9 to 20 November, countries meet in Antalya for COP31, with Türkiye hosting the conference and Australia presiding over the negotiations. While COP31 is often billed as an implementation COP, several negotiation tracks will reach important milestones in Antalya. This was the focus of a discussion at the OECD COP31 Virtual Pavilion organised by the OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG) on 3 November with Pilar Bueno Rubial (Argentina 1.5), Mahlet Eyassu Melkie (Rocky Mountain Institute), Lauren Hermanus (Southern Transitions) and Kaveh Guilanpour (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions). As the moderator David Waskow (World Resources Institute) put it: “Some of the most consequential outcomes of COP31 will come from moving forward on key negotiation elements that will help bolster what countries are doing on the ground”. While many of the negotiation decisions expected in Antalya may appear procedural, they will shape the next phase of the Paris Agreement, which will be more focused on implementation rather than on rule-setting, including how countries track adaptation progress, access finance, address just transition concerns and strengthen mitigation action.

The mitigation work programme (MWP) was established in 2021 to urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation in this critical decade. With its mandate ending in 2026, Parties will need to decide in Antalya whether it continues and in what form.

Discussions on the future of the MWP have focused on how it could be improved, if Parties agree on its continuation.  Views differ, however, on its role going forward. Some see the work programme as a way to send political signals on mitigation ambition, while others prefer a space for exchanging experiences on mitigation implementation. 

Recent CCXG analysis explores different design options for a future MWP. Adopting multi-year work planning, designing more targeted investment-focused events, developing more substantive outputs and strengthening connections with other processes are among the options being considered that could boost the impact of the MWP going forward. The CCXG side event at COP31 on 14 November will discuss Delivering fit-for-purpose investment-focused events (IFEs) under the MWP to explore some of these issues further. 

Adaptation will be one of the most closely watched negotiation tracks in Antalya. Following the adoption of 59 Belém Adaptation Indicators at COP30, the focus is now on how to make the indicators operational, an issue discussed in recent CCXG analysis. 

A first key issue on the table is the technical taskforce responsible for developing methodologies for the indicators. As Pilar Bueno Rubial mentioned: “We need to learn from previous processes in terms of greater involvement of Parties in the (technical) process: how to get this balance and achieve something that can help with the equilibrium that Parties and stakeholders are requesting is a key piece of the puzzle”. 

A second key issue is how adaptation will be reflected in the second global stocktake (GST2). Many Parties are already reporting information on the 11 targets of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience. Together with early testing of the indicators, this will provide a basis for GST2 to build on. Such information can indicate what countries are doing to adapt, but it will not necessarily show whether these efforts are effective in reducing climate risks. This distinction matters for GST2, as its mandate on adaptation is broader than the global goal on adaptation and includes consideration of the adequacy and effectiveness of adaptation action and support provided. Assessing adaptation effectiveness raises methodological, conceptual and political challenges and gaps. Antalya could offer a first opportunity to take up these questions in both the adaptation and GST rooms to discuss how GST2 can deliver on its mandate on adaptation.

Finance will be discussed in several rooms at once in Antalya and progress on other tracks will often depend on it. This includes the transition of the Adaptation Fund to serve the Paris Agreement exclusively, how to take forward the call from Belém to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035, the scope of the two-year work programme on climate finance agreed in Belém, and the Presidency-led consultations on access to finance for developing countries.

For Mahlet Eyassu Melkie, the work programme on climate finance could prove the most difficult of these discussions. In Bonn, Parties disagreed on its scope, including how it relates to the wider provisions on finance in Article 9, and on how the work should be carried forward. With limited negotiating time across several finance items, clarifying all these questions in Antalya may prove challenging.

In Belém, Parties agreed to develop a just transition mechanism and Antalya is expected to define how it will work. For Lauren Hermanus, this builds on progress to date under the just transition work programme: "There has been tremendous success in the way that just transitions have been redefined on the international co-operation agenda through the work programme.”

The mechanism and the work programme are distinct but closely linked. The just transition work programme, launched in 2022, has operated mainly through dialogues open to Parties and non-Party stakeholders. The mechanism is intended to enhance international co-operation, technical assistance, capacity-building and knowledge-sharing. As the work programme is also under review this year, COP31 is expected to consider whether it continues alongside the mechanism and, if so, in what form. 

COP31 will mark the start of the second global stocktake (GST2) of the Paris Agreement, a two-year collective assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. Its outcome is meant to inform countries in updating and enhancing their national climate plans and enhancing international co-operation. Its impact will therefore depend on how its outcomes are taken forward by countries and non-Party stakeholders. GST2 kicks off in a significantly changed context marked by rising climate impacts, geopolitical tensions and financial strain, but also technological advances and economic opportunities as discussed in recent CCXG analysis on preparing the ground for GST2.

The outcome of this stocktaking exercise needs to resonate beyond the halls of the UNFCCC and speak to the real concerns of governments and people around the world. For Kaveh Guilanpour, “it is not about moving away from negotiations, but if we are serious about implementation, we must no longer treat the Action Agenda as a side event. It must increasingly be part of the main event”.  Join us at a Special Event at COP31 on 13 November - The Global Climate Action Agenda as an Engine of Implementation for a Successful GST2 – organised in partnership with the Climate High-Level Champions, OECD, World Business Council for Sustainable Development and Sustainable Business COP.